Jacksonville Jaguars vs Chicago Bears

Start with the conditions, because they are the one thing about this game we can measure historically. Across 12 Chicago home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 36°F with 6 mph of wind, and 67% of them were at or below 40°F — the coldest in the sample read 8°F. Our model prices none of that: it sees +1.5 for the Bears, +2.7 for the Jaguars, and lands on the Bears by 1.5 (54%). Weather is an argument you add to that number, not one already inside it.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.8 (9th of 32) against a Bears defense at -0.9 (19th) — 2.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+1.9, 8th) meets the Jaguars defense (0.0, 9th), a 1.9-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jaguars grade +0.9, 3rd in the league, against +0.5 (14th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.9 projected wins for the Bears against 9.5 for the Jaguars, favored in 11 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 9th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Jaguars'.

One team has owned this series: the Bears are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Bears won 35-16 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Bears are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Bears at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC06JACCHI is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 54% / 46% — the tradable window is narrow: Bears at 49c or below, Jaguars at 41c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.