Jacksonville Jaguars vs Chicago Bears
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, December 6, 2026 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Bears by 1.5 in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Chicago Bears, NFL Week 13 2026 — 54% to win, and a Chicago December game that has run a median 36°F since 2015. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06JACCHI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Bears at 49c or below (or Jaguars at 41c or below) is where the model would take a position.
JAX
+2.6
CHI
+1.4
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Jaguars
46%
model win prob
Bears
54%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
34%
Madden 27
66%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC06JACCHI hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Bears at 49c or below, or the Jaguars at 41c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Jaguars at Bears
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Bears −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Bears −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Bears −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Bears −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Bears −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Bears −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Bears −9.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
3 more rungsBears −10.5 → Bears −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||
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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Cold-weather math: Jaguars at Bears in December
Start with the conditions, because they are the one thing about this game we can measure historically. Across 12 Chicago home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 36°F with 6 mph of wind, and 67% of them were at or below 40°F — the coldest in the sample read 8°F. Our model prices none of that: it sees +1.4 for the Bears, +2.6 for the Jaguars, and lands on the Bears by 1.5 (54%). Weather is an argument you add to that number, not one already inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.7 (9th of 32) against a Bears defense at -1.1 (19th) — 2.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+2.0, 8th) meets the Jaguars defense (0.0, 9th), a 2.0-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jaguars grade +0.9, 3rd in the league, against +0.5 (14th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.8 projected wins for the Bears against 9.4 for the Jaguars, favored in 11 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 9th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Jaguars'.
One team has owned this series: the Bears are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Bears won 35-16 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Bears are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Bears at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC06JACCHI is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 54% / 46% — the tradable window is narrow: Bears at 49c or below, Jaguars at 41c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jaguars vs Bears on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC06JACCHI
- Market-implied (Bears)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Bears)
- 54%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06JACCHI yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Bears at 49c or below, or the Jaguars at 41c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Jaguars vs Bears trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Bears | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Jaguars vs Bears — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jaguars vs Bears in Week 13?
Our power-rating model picks the Bears by 1.5 points, a 54% win probability over the Jaguars, for a projected score of Bears 25, Jaguars 24 on a ratings-implied 48.8-point total. The Bears rate 10th of 32 (+1.4) and the Jaguars 6th (+2.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06JACCHI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the weather usually like for Chicago games in December?
Across 12 Chicago home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 36°F with 6 mph wind, 67% of them at or below 40°F, and the coldest at 8°F. That is a historical profile, not a forecast for this date — and our model carries no weather term, so it is not inside the 1.5-point line.
How do you take a position on Jaguars vs Bears?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC06JACCHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bears at 49c or below, or the Jaguars at 41c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bears host the Jaguars?
Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Chicago Bears on Sunday, December 6, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 13, at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL.
What does the model project for the Bears and Jaguars this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bears at 8.8 wins (favored in 11) and the Jaguars at 9.4 (favored in 11). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Jaguars', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Jaguars vs Bears?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06JACCHI yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Bears at 49c or below or the Jaguars at 41c or below, off a 1.5-point line.
Can you trade Jaguars vs Bears on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 13 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC06JACCHI. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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