Jacksonville Jaguars vs Chicago Bears

Sunday, December 6, 2026 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

Jaguars

48%

model win prob

Bears

52%

model win prob

Model line

Bears −0.5

Kalshi (Bears)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Bears — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Jacksonville Jaguars+2.74thPlayoff

Chicago Bears+0.910thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 13, the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to face the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Bears 10th of 32 (Average tier, +0.9) and the Jaguars 4th (Playoff tier, +2.7). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Bears by 0.5 — a 52% win probability for the Bears.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 52% (Bears) / 48% (Jaguars) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Jaguars vs Bears — frequently asked

Who is favored in Jaguars vs Bears in Week 13?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Bears by 0.5 points and gives them a 52% win probability over the Jaguars. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Jaguars vs Bears?

Home win probability 52% (Bears), away 48% (Jaguars). That comes from a power-rating differential of -1.8 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Bears rate 10th of 32 (Average tier), the Jaguars 4th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Jaguars vs Bears on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.