Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Neutral site
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Jaguars by 1 in Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL Week 6 2026 — 53% to win, and a neutral-site game, so the model applies no home-field adjustment. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jaguars at 48c or below (or Texans at 42c or below) is where the model would take a position.
HOU
+1.8
JAX
+2.7
Texans
47%
model win prob
Jaguars
53%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAChasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jaguars at 48c or below, or the Texans at 42c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
No home field: pricing Texans–Jaguars on neutral ground
The schedule flags this one as a neutral-site game, which changes how the number is built. The model zeroes out the usual 2.5-point home adjustment, so the line is pure ratings: +2.7 for the Jaguars against +1.8 for the Texans, giving the Jaguars by 1 and 53% to win. The Jaguars are the designated home team on paper only. Take home field out and the ratings gap is all that is left — which is why this number is a full 2.5 points different from what the same matchup would price at in Jacksonville.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Jaguars grade 0.0 on that side of the ball (9th of 32) against a Texans offense at -1.3 (26th) — 1.3 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Jaguars offense (+1.8, 9th) meets the Texans defense (+2.4, 1st), a 0.6-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.5 projected wins for the Jaguars against 9.2 for the Texans, favored in 11 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 10th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Texans'.
On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 15, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC South race.
One team has owned this series: the Texans are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Texans won 36-29 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Jaguars are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Jaguars at 53% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 53% / 47% — the tradable window is narrow: Jaguars at 48c or below, Texans at 42c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC South hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Texans vs Jaguars — frequently asked
Who is favored in Texans vs Jaguars in Week 6?
Our power-rating model favors the Jaguars by 1 points, a 53% win probability over the Texans. The Jaguars rate 6th of 32 (+2.7) and the Texans 9th (+1.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Is there a home-field advantage in this game?
No. The schedule flags it as a neutral-site game, so the model applies zero home-field points instead of the usual 2.5. The Jaguars are the designated home team for scheduling purposes only. The resulting line — Jaguars by 1 — is the raw ratings gap between +2.7 and +1.8.
How do you take a position on Texans vs Jaguars?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jaguars at 48c or below, or the Texans at 42c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Where do the Jaguars and Texans play this game?
Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars meet at a neutral site on Sunday, October 18, 2026, NFL Week 6. The Jaguars are the designated home team, so the game does not carry home-field advantage in our model.
What does the model project for the Jaguars and Texans this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jaguars at 9.5 wins (favored in 11) and the Texans at 9.2 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Texans', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 53% on a team like the Jaguars?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Jaguars at 53% over the Texans sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 15. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Texans–Jaguars, Week 15 →
More Week 6 matchups
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