Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Updated · market price
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Wembley Stadium, London, United Kingdom (neutral site)
Quick Answer
As of October 14, 2026, Kalshi implies 56% for the Jaguars in Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL Week 6 2026, while the market line has the Jaguars by 2.5 (59% to win) — a 2.3pp gap. Value side: the Jaguars. The PredictionMarketsPicks model's own line is Jaguars by 2.5 against a market line of Jaguars by 2.5 — a 0.1-point lean toward the Texans, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board
Week 6 · 2026-10-141 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 2.3pp on Jaguars moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Texans vs Jaguars: where the prop prices are
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — our Oracle calls are the opinion.
No Kalshi strike in this game is 5¢+ off the sportsbooks right now — the market agrees with itself.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten | anytime TD | 41.0¢ | — | one-sided | over · Kalshi 43.7¢ |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 15+ rec yds | 30.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 25+ rec yds | 15.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 40+ rush yds | 79.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only |
| Bhayshul TutenRB | 60+ rush yds | 55.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only |
| Bhayshul TutenRB | 65+ rush yds | 49.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 110+ rush yds | 11.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only |
| Brenton Strange | anytime TD | 20.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only |
Texans vs Jaguars player props — every Kalshi strike vs the books →+ 117 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
HOU
+0.8
JAX
+3.2
Texans
41%
fair value (books)
Jaguars
59%
fair value (books)
Market-anchored fair value: JAX 59% (+2.1pp) Combo Edge Builder →
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
52%
Madden 27
48%
Madden 27
Run the numbers yourself
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
The Ladder — Texans at Jaguars
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi prices Jaguars −2.5 at 52¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- −20.5Jaguars——
- −17.5Jaguars——
- −16.5Jaguars——
- −14.5Jaguars—outside band
- −13.5Jaguars—outside band
- −10.5Jaguars—outside band
- −9.5Jaguars—outside band
- −7.5Jaguars—outside band
- −6.5Jaguars——
- −5.5Jaguars——
- −4.5Jaguars——
- −3.5Jaguars——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects by 2.6
- −2.5Jaguars——
- −1.5Jaguars——
- +1.5Jaguars——
- +2.5Jaguars——
- +3.5Jaguars——
- +4.5Jaguars—outside band
- +5.5Jaguars—outside band
- +6.5Jaguars—outside band
- +7.5Jaguars—outside band
- +9.5Jaguars—outside band
- +10.5Jaguars—outside band
- +13.5Jaguars—outside band
- +14.5Jaguars—outside band
Priced. The market and the model tell the same story at every rung.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Texans vs Jaguars power ratings (Week 6)
Texans and Jaguars season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Texans vs Jaguars player props
Our projection against the live Kalshi contract. Every prop is an “X or more” contract that pays $1 if the player gets there, so the price of the side we call, in cents,is the market’s implied probability — the edge is the gap between that and ours, in percentage points. Closest strike to our projection first.
| Player | Contract | Call | Our odds | Mkt | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB | 20+ rush ydsover 19.5 | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH |
| Bhayshul TutenRB | 60+ rush ydsover 59.5 | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE |
All 11 player-prop edges for Week 6 →Locked numbers are Pro.
Texans vs Jaguars — player pages
All players →Every strike Kalshi lists on that player, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, and our model's probability beside both.
No home field: pricing Texans–Jaguars on neutral ground
The schedule flags this one as a neutral-site game, which changes how the number is built. The model zeroes out the usual 2.5-point home adjustment, so the line is pure ratings: +3.2 for the Jaguars against +0.8 for the Texans, giving the Jaguars by 2.5 and 57% to win. The Jaguars are the designated home team on paper only. Take home field out and the ratings gap is all that is left — which is why this number is a full 2.5 points different from what the same matchup would price at in Jacksonville.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.9 (7th of 32) against a Texans defense at +0.8 (6th) — 1.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Texans offense (-0.5, 21st) meets the Jaguars defense (+0.6, 7th), a 1.0-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jaguars at 11.2 wins (favored in 12 of 17) and the Texans at 7.3 (favored in 11) — 4.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Jaguars' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Texans'.
On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 15, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC South race.
One team has owned this series: the Texans are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Texans won 36-29 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Jaguars are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Jaguars at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC contract implies 56% for the Jaguars against a fair value (books) of 59% — a 2.3-point gap. That clears our floor for a position (2 points net of the book's spread), which flags the Jaguars as the value side at 57c.
Full division picture on the AFC South hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Texans vs Jaguars on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC
- Market-implied (Jaguars)
- 56c · 56%
- Fair value — books (Jaguars)
- 59%
- Fair value vs market
- +2.3pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 56c on the Jaguars is an implied 56% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 59%, a 2.3pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Texans vs Jaguars trades
4 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Jaguars | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 56% 56c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 57% 57c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarketinternational book | 56% 56c | Open Polymarket → |
| Polymarket USUS exchange — separate book | 57% 57c | Open Polymarket US → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 56% 56c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 56% 56c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Watch the breakdown: Texans vs Jaguars
Texans vs Jaguars — frequently asked
Who will win Jaguars vs Texans?
The market line has the Jaguars at 59% to beat the Texans in Week 6.
Who is favored in Texans vs Jaguars in Week 6?
The market line has the Jaguars by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Texans (our model's own line: Jaguars by 2.5). Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC market implies 56% for the Jaguars — a 2.3pp gap versus the market line.
Is there a home-field advantage in this game?
No. The schedule flags it as a neutral-site game, so the model applies zero home-field points instead of the usual 2.5. The Jaguars are the designated home team for scheduling purposes only. The resulting line — Jaguars by 2.5 — is the raw ratings gap between +3.2 and +0.8.
How do you take a position on Texans vs Jaguars?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Jaguars YES is quoted around 56c against a fair value (books) of 59%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Where do the Jaguars and Texans play this game?
Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars meet at Wembley Stadium, London, United Kingdom on Sunday, October 18, 2026, NFL Week 6. The Jaguars are the designated home team, so the game does not carry home-field advantage in our model.
What does the model project for the Jaguars and Texans this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jaguars at 11.2 wins (favored in 12) and the Texans at 7.3 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Texans', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Texans vs Jaguars?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC. The Jaguars YES contract sits around 56c, which is an implied 56% — against our books-anchored fair value of 59%. That is a 2.3pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Texans vs Jaguars on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 6 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Jaguars?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Jaguars at 57% over the Texans sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Jaguars moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 59% against a market price implying 57%, an edge of +2.3 points. Model 59% vs market 56% on JAX. We rate it a position, sized at 1.3% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 15. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Texans–Jaguars, Week 15 →
After this one
More Week 6 matchups
Seahawks at Broncoseven
Bears at FalconsFalcons −5
Ravens at Brownseven
Titans at ColtsColts −6.5
Jets at PatriotsPatriots −8.5
Saints at GiantsGiants −0.5
Panthers at EaglesEagles −3
Steelers at BuccaneersSteelers −2
Cardinals at RamsRams −9.5
Chargers at ChiefsChiefs −5.5
Bills at RaidersBills −3
Cowboys at PackersPackers −4.5
Commanders at 49ers49ers −7Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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