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Home/NFL/Week 6/Texans vs Jaguars
Gridiron EdgeWeek 6 · 2026AFC South rivalry

Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31

Final. The rematch: Jaguars vs Texans, Week 15 →Upset: Texans closed +120 and won. Every 2026 upset, by closing line →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Wembley Stadium, London, United Kingdom (neutral site)

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 18, 2026): Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 — NFL Week 6, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Jaguars by 2.5 (59% to win); the Texans won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Jaguars at 56c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31Final

Model call: MISS

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Jaguars by 2.5 (59% to win). The Texans won — that call missed.

Closing-line value on the Jaguars: -5c — we archived the Jaguars at 61c on Oct 11; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 56c on Oct 18. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 6 · 2026-10-19

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Jaguars to winModel 59% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 56% on JAX — kept as the pre-game record.56c59%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Texans 34, Jaguars 31 at Wembley: Ka’imi Fairbairn’s 49-yard field goal on the final snap, after Travis Hunter’s end-zone interception set up Cam Little from 60

Houston led 31-21 late in the third quarter in London and needed the last play to win. C.J. Stroud threw three touchdown passes, two of them to Foster Moreau, and Jawhar Jordan ran 25 yards for a 10-point lead. Trevor Lawrence answered with four touchdown passes, the last a 7-yarder to Hunter, and Hunter then intercepted Stroud in the end zone with 3:59 left, which led to Little’s 60-yard field goal to tie it at 31 with 1:55 to go. Stroud moved the Texans from their 32 to the Jacksonville 32 and Fairbairn made the 49-yarder as time expired. DraftKings opened Jacksonville, the designated home team, as a 1.5-point underdog and closed it a 2.5-point favorite; Houston won by three, and 65 points finished over both the opening 41.5 and the closing 42.5.

Texans 34—Jaguars 31

Final✗ Call missed

The chip reads a miss. It grades our stored probability, which had Jacksonville at 58.8%: the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 2.5-point line, with the Jaguars as the designated home team on a neutral field. Houston won. The model’s own read was Jacksonville by 2.4, a 0.1-point lean toward Houston, tier NONE: the model and the market had the same game, so there was no call to grade. The quarterback gate read PASS. The ledger held no row on this game. The final pre-kickoff board carried one PLAY row, and it won: Dalton Schultz over 3.5 catches, HIGH, YES at 46.5¢, closed 46.5¢ (CLV 0). He caught four. Twenty-one visible WATCH rows went 17-4 and are graded apart, never folded into the record. Bhayshul Tuten’s rushing ladder won all five unders (49.5 through 79.5) on 12 carries for 39 yards, Chris Rodriguez Jr. won all three overs (9.5, 14.5, 19.5) on 55, Schultz’s three other catch and yardage rows won, Marvin Harrison Jr. over 1.5 catches won on three, Jakobi Meyers over 3.5 catches won on five, and both Parker Washington unders won on four. The losses: Josh Cameron over 1.5 catches and Brian Thomas Jr. over 1.5 catches (no catches either; Thomas was targeted twice), Lawrence under 9.5 rushing yards (three carries for 11; the 14.5 rung won), and Xavier Hutchinson over 2.5 catches (two; the 1.5 rung won). Two passing-yards rows on Lawrence are suppressed stats the board never displayed, and they count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Texans −1.5 → Jaguars −2.5
Total
41.5 → 42.5
To win
HOU −115 / JAX −105 → HOU +120 / JAX −142

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total rose 1 to 42.5; the game landed on 65.

How it happened

Q1

Moreau from 6, a Tuten touchdown wiped out by holding, and Calen Bullock’s end-zone interception

Houston went 62 yards in five plays, a 42-yard Stroud throw to Nico Collins setting up Moreau’s 6-yard touchdown. Jacksonville answered with a 14-play drive that reached the Houston 3. Early in the second quarter Tuten’s touchdown run was nullified by a Brenton Strange holding penalty, and on the fifth snap of the quarter Lawrence’s throw for Meyers was intercepted by Calen Bullock in the end zone.

Houston TD drive
5 plays · 62 yds · 3:01
Jacksonville reply
14 plays · 59 yds · interception
After one
Texans 7, Jaguars 0

ESPN — play-by-play

Q2

Three touchdowns and a field goal in the last 6:47 of the half

Lawrence hit Tuten for a 27-yard touchdown, Fairbairn kicked a 25-yarder after Schultz slipped short of a third-down marker in the red zone, Lawrence found Tuten again from two yards with 55 seconds left, and Houston needed three plays and 47 seconds to go 63 yards for Moreau’s 1-yard catch with eight seconds left.

Halftime
Texans 17, Jaguars 14
Houston’s last drive of the half
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:47

ESPN — play-by-play

Q3

A too-many-men flag kept Houston on the field, and Noel and Jordan made it 31-21

Jacksonville was flagged for too many men on the field on a Houston punt early in the third quarter, and the Texans’ 11-play, 65-yard drive ended with Stroud’s 13-yard touchdown to Jaylin Noel. Lawrence’s 1-yard throw to rookie tight end Nate Boerkircher cut it to 24-21, and Jordan answered with a 25-yard run 1:44 later.

Noel TD drive
11 plays · 65 yds · 5:39
Jordan TD drive
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:44
After three
Texans 31, Jaguars 21

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Hunter scored, then intercepted Stroud in the end zone; Little from 60, Fairbairn from 49

Hunter caught a 7-yard touchdown from Lawrence to make it 31-28 with 11:26 left. Houston answered with a 12-play, 7:33 drive that ended when Hunter intercepted Stroud in the end zone, and Little’s 60-yarder tied it with 1:55 left. Stroud found Woody Marks for 19 yards to the Jacksonville 41, and Fairbairn kicked the 49-yarder with no time left. “Just made a mistake,” Stroud said of the interception, his first of the season.

Final
Texans 34, Jaguars 31
Stroud
24 of 34 · 312 yds · 3 TD · 1 INT
Lawrence
24 of 41 · 306 yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
Noel
4 catches · 107 yds · 1 TD
Total yards
HOU 426 · JAX 412

AP via ESPN — Fairbairn’s last-second 49-yard FG gives Texans 34-31 win over Jaguars at Wembley Stadium

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game, and it holds no nfl_weekly_edges row for it. Grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W6_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-18/prop-reconciliation-w06.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The DraftKings line moved four points, from Jacksonville +1.5 to −2.5, but ESPN’s core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, so this recap does not claim what moved it.
  • The play-by-play logs an Ameer Abdullah kickoff-return fumble recovered by Houston late in the third quarter, under replay review; Jacksonville kept the ball and scored on that possession, so this recap treats the fumble as overturned and leaves it out.
  • Josh Cameron played (a 46-yard kickoff return) but has no receiving line in the box score, so his WATCH row is graded on a real zero.
  • The severity of Reed Blankenship’s injury (he left in the first half, per the AP) and the umpire’s knee injury was not known when this was published. The AP reports Azeez Al-Shaair returned after a concussion evaluation.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close.

Reporting verified 2026-10-18. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Fairbairn’s last-second 49-yard FG gives Texans 34-31 win over Jaguars at Wembley Stadium

A backup left tackle against the Texans’ pass rush, at 9:30 in the morning

Both quarterbacks are confirmed and healthy, so our gate has nothing to add here. What this game turns on is a single roster change: Jacksonville lost its starting left tackle in the Philadelphia win and will put a tackle with no 2026 starts in front of Trevor Lawrence against a Houston front that has eighteen sacks in five games and just put three on Cam Ward in one quarter. The counter is Jacksonville’s run defense, which is the best in football by every per-carry measure, against a Houston ground game that averages less than a yard before contact.

Texans pass rush · Jaguars pass protection

Walker Little, in for Anton Harrison, against Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.

Edge: Texans

This is the matchup the week created. Harrison, a first-round pick in 2023 with more than fifty regular-season starts, grabbed his right knee blocking on a run play in the third quarter against the Eagles and was carted off; he is expected to have arthroscopic surgery when the team gets back from London, and the surgeon decides whether that is weeks or the season. Little, a 2021 second-rounder with nineteen career starts and none this year, is the expected replacement. He draws Danielle Hunter, who lines up over the left tackle and posted three and a half sacks and a forced fumble the last time Houston played Jacksonville, and a Houston front that got eighteen sacks in five games without blitzing much — their sack rate on four-man rushes is third in the league. Lawrence has already been sacked ten times behind the healthy line. Jacksonville’s answer is structural rather than personal: the lowest dropback volume in the league, a run rate that is seventh-highest, and heavy sets that keep a tight end next to the tackle.

Houston pass rush
18 sacks through five games · Anderson 3.0 sacks vs Tennessee, all in the fourth quarter
Lawrence, protection
Sacked 10 times in five games behind the healthy line
The replacement
Walker Little — 19 career starts, 0 in 2026; Harrison to arthroscopic knee surgery after London

Source: Yahoo Sports / Texans Wire — Texans could exploit Jaguars’ new offensive line injury (2026-10-13)

Texans run offense · Jaguars run defense

Houston’s run game, without David Montgomery, into the best run defense in football

Edge: Jaguars

The quiet reason Jacksonville can live with a backup tackle. Montgomery did not practise Wednesday with a groin injury and the club calls him week-to-week, which leaves Woody Marks as the back — he played 98% of the snaps once Montgomery went down against Tennessee and finished with 85 total yards on nineteen touches, at 3.5 yards a carry on the season. Houston backs average 0.68 yards before contact, which is 30th in the league, and the team as a whole gets hit at or behind the line on roughly half its runs. Jacksonville is the wrong opponent for that: 42.0 rushing yards a game allowed to backs, 2.5 yards a carry, a first down or touchdown allowed on 12% of backfield runs against a league average near 22%, and one run of fourteen yards or longer conceded all season. Houston has leaned pass-heavy by design anyway — 63% of its plays, ninth-highest — and this week that choice makes itself.

Jacksonville run defense
42.0 rush yds/gm to RBs (1st) · 2.5 yds per carry (1st) · 12% of backfield runs gain a first down or TD (lg avg 21.9%)
Houston backs
Marks 3.5 yds per carry (41st of 43 qualifiers) · team 0.68 yds before contact (30th) · 2.34 after contact (31st)
Montgomery
DNP Wednesday (groin), listed week-to-week — Marks took 98.1% of snaps after he left in Week 5

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Texans–Jaguars Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)

Texans pass offense · Jaguars coverage

Nico Collins — plus Marvin Harrison Jr.’s debut — against a cornerback room with three hamstrings

Edge: Texans

Collins has gone over a hundred yards in five of his last six games against Jacksonville, four of them in a row, and the Jaguars’ coverage profile says why: 11.1 yards per target allowed to opposing number-one receivers, which is 30th, and 144.2 yards a game to outside receivers, which is 31st. The room he faces got thinner on Wednesday — Montaric Brown did not practise with a hamstring, Jourdan Lewis and Jaylon Jones were both limited with hamstrings of their own, and Eric Murray is in the concussion protocol. Into that walks Marvin Harrison Jr., traded from Arizona on Sunday, Stroud’s college teammate, and confirmed by DeMeco Ryans on Wednesday to debut in London. Houston has twenty-one pass plays of twenty yards or more, tied for the league lead, and Stroud has not thrown an interception this season. The caution is Jacksonville’s scoring defense rather than its coverage: fourteen points a game allowed, second in the league, with a touchdown rate allowed on passes that is also second.

Jacksonville vs WR1s
11.1 yds per target (30th) · 93.2 yds/gm (29th) · 144.2 yds/gm to outside WRs (31st)
Collins vs Jacksonville
100+ yards in five of his last six meetings, four straight
Houston explosives
21 pass plays of 20+ yards, tied for the NFL lead · Stroud 0 INT in five games

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Texans–Jaguars Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)

Both offenses inside the 20 · Texans right tackle

The red zone decides it, and Houston is the worst team in football there

Edge: Jaguars

Two teams with similar yardage profiles and opposite finishing. Jacksonville converts red-zone trips to touchdowns 19 percentage points more often than its opponents, the widest margin in the league; Houston converts 22 points less often than its opponents, which is 31st. Jacksonville has also scored first in every game this season, one of two teams to do it. That is why Stroud can post two straight twenty-point games — 26-of-34 for 261 and a rushing touchdown against the Titans — and the team can still sit at 1-4. Houston’s own line carries a question, too: Trent Brown did not practise Wednesday with a knee injury, and Jacksonville’s edge pair has been the reason its scoring defense ranks where it does. If both tackles are substitutes on Sunday, the game shrinks further toward the two run games, and that is a Jacksonville game.

Red-zone margin
Jacksonville +19 pts of TD conversion vs opponents (1st) · Houston −22.2 (31st)
Scoring first
Jacksonville has scored first in all five games (with Green Bay, the only two)
Houston right tackle
Trent Brown (knee) DNP Wednesday — no designation until Friday

Source: houstontexans.com — Week 6 injury report, Texans at Jaguars (2026-10-14)

What this read does not know

  • No one has a game-status designation yet, and four Houston starters did not practise. Montgomery (groin), Jalen Pitre (shoulder), Azeez Al-Shaair (groin) and Trent Brown (knee) were all non-participants Wednesday; the club calls Montgomery and Pitre week-to-week. Designations land Friday. The slate should be re-read after Friday’s report, and the pass-rush read above assumes Houston’s front is whole — Anderson was a limited participant for rest, not injury.
  • Marvin Harrison Jr.’s role in his first game is unknown. He was a vertical-only X in Arizona and is expected to play more Z in Houston with a wider route tree, but he was traded on Sunday and the club has said only that he will play. How many snaps, and whether he displaces Xavier Hutchinson or Collins’s targets, cannot be read from anything yet.
  • Houston’s coverage picture is a one-game sample. Its disguised-coverage rate jumped from 24% to 44% in the first game with DeMeco Ryans calling the defense again, with a season-high man rate. Whether that holds against Lawrence, who threw for a season-high 331 against Philadelphia, is not knowable from one week.
  • Records and standings here come from ESPN, not Pro Football Reference. PFR returned a Cloudflare challenge to every request this session. The ESPN table and the club sites agree — Jacksonville 4-1 after the London win over Philadelphia, Houston 1-4 after beating Tennessee 26-3 — but the standing rule is PFR and that check was not possible.

Reporting verified 2026-10-15. Further sources: houstontexans.com — Week 6 injury report, Texans at Jaguars (2026-10-14) · Yahoo Sports / Texans Wire — Texans could exploit Jaguars’ new offensive line injury (2026-10-13) · Yahoo Sports — Texans injury report: four players miss practice before the Jaguars London trip · Sharp Football Analysis — Texans–Jaguars Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar) · Yahoo Sports — NFL Week 6 live updates: Harrison Jr. to make Texans debut, per DeMeco Ryans (2026-10-14) · NBC Sports — 2026 NFL Week 6 injury report roundup · SI — Texans vs Jaguars Week 6 preview (records, Week 5 results; injury table stale, not used) · ESPN — 2026 NFL standings (used in place of Pro Football Reference, which 403’d this session) · houstontexans.com — Texans vs Jaguars in London, 2026 (series history, Hunter’s 2025 game)

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 6 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 18
AWAY HOU +0.5
vs JAX -2.5
HOME JAX +2.8
Fair (books) · JAX 59% home win prob
Kalshi · JAX — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 London, United Kingdom PASS — no position

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Texans

41%

fair value (books)

Jaguars

59%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

52%

Madden 27

48%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Texans at Jaguars How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Texans at JaguarsSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Texans at Jaguars Kalshi spread ladder for Week 6: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Texans–Jaguars spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Texans vs Jaguars power ratings (Week 6) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Houston Texans+0.515thAverage
    Jacksonville Jaguars+2.85thPlayoff

    Texans and Jaguars season outlook

    HOUJAX
    Average wins7.310.5
    Make playoffs24%80%
    Win division15%73%
    Win Super Bowl1.8%8.0%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Texans vs Jaguars — player pages

    All players →

    Nico Collins

    WR

    David Montgomery

    RB

    Parker Washington

    WR

    Woody Marks

    RB

    Bhayshul Tuten

    RB

    Brian Thomas Jr.

    WR

    Marvin Harrison Jr.

    WR

    Trevor Lawrence

    QB

    Jakobi Meyers

    WR

    Chris Rodriguez Jr.

    RB

    C.J. Stroud

    QB

    Brenton Strange

    TE

    Dalton Schultz

    TE

    Travis Hunter

    WR

    Josh Cameron

    JAC Jaguars D/ST

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: No home field: pricing Texans–Jaguars on neutral ground

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 — the graded call is above.

    The schedule flags this one as a neutral-site game, which changes how the number is built. The model zeroes out the usual 2.5-point home adjustment, so the line is pure ratings: +2.8 for the Jaguars against +0.5 for the Texans, giving the Jaguars by 2.5 and 57% to win. The Jaguars are the designated home team on paper only. Take home field out and the ratings gap is all that is left — which is why this number is a full 2.5 points different from what the same matchup would price at in Jacksonville.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +2.2 (8th of 32) against a Texans defense at -0.4 (13th) — 2.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Texans offense (+0.4, 16th) meets the Jaguars defense (-0.2, 11th), a 0.6-point gap.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jaguars at 10.5 wins (favored in 12 of 17) and the Texans at 7.3 (favored in 10) — 3.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 9th-hardest game on the Jaguars' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Texans'.

    On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 15, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC South race.

    One team has owned this series: the Texans are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Texans won 36-29 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Jaguars are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Jaguars at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Full division picture on the AFC South hub.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Texans vs Jaguars on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC
    Market-implied (Jaguars)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Jaguars)
    59%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 59% for the Jaguars. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Texans vs Jaguars trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueJaguarsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig56% 56cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Texans vs Jaguars

    Jaguars vs. Texans: Find the Edge on Kalshi! 🏈 | 7 Oracles NFL Prediction Market Analysis — video thumbnail4:36Jaguars vs. Texans: Find the Edge on Kalshi! 🏈 | 7 Oracles NFL Prediction Market AnalysisOct 16, 2026Thursday Night Football preview: Bills - Lions #nfl #bills #lions — video thumbnailShortThursday Night Football preview: Bills - Lions #nfl #bills #lionsSep 16, 20262026 NFL Predictions, Big Brother Updates and More | Kalshi, Polymarket, Markets Advice — video thumbnail36:342026 NFL Predictions, Big Brother Updates and More | Kalshi, Polymarket, Markets AdviceAug 22, 2026

    Texans vs Jaguars — frequently asked

    Who won Texans vs Jaguars in Week 6?

    Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 — final, played Sunday, October 18, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Jaguars by 2.5 (59% to win), and the Texans won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Texans vs Jaguars before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Jaguars by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Texans. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Is there a home-field advantage in this game?

    No. The schedule flags it as a neutral-site game, so the model applies zero home-field points instead of the usual 2.5. The Jaguars are the designated home team for scheduling purposes only. The resulting line — Jaguars by 2.5 — is the raw ratings gap between +2.8 and +0.5.

    How do you take a position on Texans vs Jaguars?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jaguars at 57c or below, or the Texans at 39c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    Where do the Jaguars and Texans play this game?

    Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars meet at Wembley Stadium, London, United Kingdom on Sunday, October 18, 2026, NFL Week 6. The Jaguars are the designated home team, so the game does not carry home-field advantage in our model.

    What does the model project for the Jaguars and Texans this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Jaguars at 10.5 wins (favored in 12) and the Texans at 7.3 (favored in 10). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Texans', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Texans vs Jaguars?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Texans vs Jaguars on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 6 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT18HOUJAC has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Jaguars?

    57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Jaguars at 57% over the Texans sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Jaguars to win worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 59% against a market price implying 56%, an edge of +2.7 points. Model 59% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 56% on JAX — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

    Trade this game on Kalshi →Jaguars hub →Texans hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 6 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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    The rematch

    They run it back in Week 15. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Texans–Jaguars, Week 15 →

    Next up for each team

    Texans: Week 7 vs GiantsModel line →Jaguars: Week 8 vs ColtsModel line →

    More Week 6 matchups

    Seahawks at BroncosModel: evenBears at FalconsModel: Falcons −0.5Ravens at BrownsModel: Browns −4.5Titans at ColtsModel: Colts −6.5Jets at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8.5Saints at GiantsModel: Giants −0.5Panthers at EaglesModel: Panthers −1.5Steelers at BuccaneersModel: Steelers −2Cardinals at RamsModel: Rams −9.5Chargers at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5Bills at RaidersModel: Bills −3Cowboys at PackersModel: Packers −4.5Commanders at 49ersModel: 49ers −7

    Full Week 6 board →Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

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