Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

Texans

40%

model win prob

Jaguars

60%

model win prob

Model line

Jaguars −3.5

Kalshi (Jaguars)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Jaguars — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Houston Texans+1.17thPlayoff

Jacksonville Jaguars+1.95thPlayoff

The prediction-market read

In Week 6, the Houston Texans travel to face the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Jaguars 5th of 32 (Playoff tier, +1.9) and the Texans 7th (Playoff tier, +1.1). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Jaguars by 3.5 — a 60% win probability for the Jaguars.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 60% (Jaguars) / 40% (Texans) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a AFC South divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the AFC South race. Track the full division on the AFC South hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Texans vs Jaguars — frequently asked

Who is favored in Texans vs Jaguars in Week 6?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Jaguars by 3.5 points and gives them a 60% win probability over the Texans. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Texans vs Jaguars?

Home win probability 60% (Jaguars), away 40% (Texans). That comes from a power-rating differential of +0.8 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Jaguars rate 5th of 32 (Playoff tier), the Texans 7th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Texans vs Jaguars on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.