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Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures on the next FOMC decision

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Every Kalshi 15-minute window, priced against the late-flip risk

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Options vs. Kalshi on weekly silver brackets

Prediction Market Sign-Up Offers & Promo Codes (October 2026)

Every new-account offer from a venue that pays us, on one page, with the terms in plain English and the date each was last verified. Kalshi if you want everything in every state. Novig if you only trade sports and hate the vig. The rest by fit.

We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links. It never changes what you get. How that works →

Kalshi

Referral / affiliate

Terms verified Oct 14, 2026

Trade on Kalshi

  • We do not promote a Kalshi sign-up bonus right now; Kalshi sets any new-account offer itself and shows it in-app at sign-up.
  • Our link still carries a referral, listed here so the disclosure is complete.
  • US users only, KYC required, all 50 states.

Best for: The everything venue — politics, economics, weather, culture and sports under one account, in every state.

States: All 50 states; US users only.

How verified: Bonus copy dropped 2026-10-14 (Benny): the referral pays us nothing, so no surface advertises it while KALSHI_PARTNER_LIVE is false (lib/affiliates.ts). Re-arming the partner switch means rewriting this card with the live campaign terms. Re-check →

Novig

Consumer referral · capped

Re-verifying · last Sep 2, 2026

Deposit $10, get $25 in trade credits

  • Sign up through our link, verify your ID, link a payment method and deposit at least $10.
  • $25 arrives as five $5 trade credits, usable on contracts priced 1¢–60¢, and expires 30 days after issue.
  • New members only, 21+, physically present in a state where Novig operates.
  • The link is the attribution; type C92909 only if the app asks for a code.

Best for: Sports only, peer-to-peer, no house edge and no fee on pregame game trades — live in-play trading on game lines and futures.

States: Most states; the app confirms yours at sign-up.

How verified: Novig Help Center “Refer a Friend” article read 2026-09-02; the “Get $25” prompt was visible in-app 2026-09-03. The referral landing page must be opened in an incognito window — a logged-in browser bounces to the feed. Re-check →

FanDuel Predicts

Referral / affiliate

Re-verifying · last Aug 28, 2026

New-account trade credit, applied after ID verification

  • Sign up through our link; the credit posts to new FanDuel Predicts accounts after identity verification, no code needed.
  • The last amount we saw was $25 with no deposit required (April 2026) — FanDuel sets the current figure in the app.
  • Credit is trading balance, not cash; profits from trades placed with it withdraw normally.
  • 21+, where FanDuel Predicts is live.

Best for: The fastest on-ramp if you already have a FanDuel account — same login, event contracts alongside the app you know.

States: Where FanDuel Predicts is live; the app confirms yours at sign-up.

How verified: Referral link confirmed working by Benny in a real browser 2026-08-28 (refer.fanduel.com renders nothing to a bot and the Chrome extension is blocked on fanduel.com). The credit amount has not been re-read since April. Re-check →

Robinhood

Referral / affiliate

Re-verifying · last Aug 28, 2026

Event-contracts referral for new Robinhood accounts

  • Sign up through our link; Robinhood shows the reward at account opening and posts it after the qualifying step.
  • Event contracts trade inside the Robinhood app on Kalshi infrastructure.
  • Rewards are set by Robinhood and change by campaign — read the terms shown at sign-up.
  • 18+, most US states.

Best for: Existing Robinhood users who want event contracts next to their brokerage account without a second app.

States: Most US states; Robinhood confirms eligibility at sign-up.

How verified: Link resolution measured 2026-08-28 (one hop, trailing slash deliberate). The reward amount could not be read — join.robinhood.com is blocked for the Chrome extension — so none is printed. Re-check →

DraftKings Predict

Referral / affiliate

Re-verifying · last Jun 17, 2026

Refer-a-friend reward for new DraftKings Predict accounts

  • Sign up through our link to the Predict product; the reward is DraftKings’ standard refer-a-friend offer, shown at sign-up.
  • Predict is DraftKings’ event-contracts product, separate from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Rewards are set by DraftKings and change by campaign — read the terms shown at sign-up.
  • 18+, where DraftKings Predict is live.

Best for: DraftKings users who want the DK wallet and app with prediction-market contracts instead of a house line.

States: Where DraftKings Predict is live; the app confirms yours at sign-up.

How verified: Link swapped to the Predict sign-up 2026-06-17 and carried since. The reward amount could not be read — myaccount.draftkings.com is blocked for the Chrome extension — so none is printed. Re-check →

Fanatics Sportsbook

Referral / affiliate

Re-verifying · last Sep 3, 2026

Up to $350 in FanCash for new customers

Fanatics Sportsbook is a sportsbook, not a prediction market — it is on this page because the offer is real and we are paid on it. Prediction markets are not sportsbooks.

  • New customers only; the offer is paid in FanCash, which spends on Fanatics tickets, trading cards and merch.
  • “Up to $350” is a maximum across the promotional period, not a single credit.
  • 21+, in states where Fanatics Sportsbook is licensed.

Best for: Readers who already shop Fanatics and want the FanCash — not a venue we price markets on.

States: Licensed states only; the site lists them.

How verified: Landing page read in Chrome 2026-09-03: “GET UP TO $350 FANCASH — New Customers”. Re-check →

Coinbase

Pays only on a crypto purchase

Re-verifying · last Sep 3, 2026

Buy $15 of crypto, get $20 in Bitcoin

  • Sign up through our link and complete a first crypto purchase of $15 or more; $20 in Bitcoin lands about 48 hours after the trade.
  • This is a crypto-purchase reward, not a prediction-market credit — Coinbase’s event contracts are a separate product on the same account.
  • Washington residents are not eligible. Limited-time; Coinbase can change or end it.

Best for: Readers opening a Coinbase account anyway — its event contracts mirror Kalshi’s, so the sign-up is the only paid step.

States: US except Washington, per Coinbase’s own page.

How verified: Landing page read in Chrome 2026-09-03: “Buy $15 of any crypto to get $20 in Bitcoin … WA residents are not eligible.” Re-check →

Polymarket

Referral / affiliate

Re-verifying · last Sep 3, 2026

No sign-up credit — we still earn a referral, and say so

  • Polymarket does not pay new traders a sign-up credit; there is nothing to claim.
  • US visitors are routed to Polymarket US, the CFTC-designated exchange; the international book is a separate exchange.
  • Listed here so the disclosure is complete: our link carries a referral token and we earn on it.

Best for: Breadth — the widest slate of political and culture markets, priced against Kalshi on our comparison pages.

States: Polymarket US varies by state; the app confirms yours.

How verified: No sign-up offer exists to verify; the referral token and routing are asserted by lib/affiliates.ts. Re-check →

How to choose

If you are new to this: open Kalshi. It is CFTC-designated, live in all 50 states, and lists politics, economics, weather, culture and sports in one account — every tool on this site prices against it. Add Novig if sports is most of what you trade: it is peer-to-peer with no house on the other side and no retail commission, and the $25-on-$10 credit is the most generous offer on this page you can actually read the terms of.

If you already trade: the fee schedules differ more than the offers do. Kalshi charges a per-contract fee that scales with price; Novig charges nothing on pregame game trades and a smaller taker fee on live fills and some futures; Polymarket charges nothing on most markets. Novig has in-play trading on game lines. Trade credits everywhere are restricted — Novig’s to contracts at 60¢ or under, with a 30-day clock — so a credit is worth more spread across cheap contracts than parked on one favorite. Run the actual numbers in the fee calculator and size with Kelly.

Where the two exchanges disagree on price is on the Kalshi vs Novig board, the NFL prop market board and the Heisman board. An offer gets you in the door; the price is why you stay.

Sign-up offers — FAQ

Which prediction market has the best sign-up offer right now?

On terms you can read, Novig: $25 in trade credits on a $10 deposit, live in most states. FanDuel Predicts posts a new-account credit after ID verification. Each card above prints the date its terms were last verified — trust the date, not the headline.

Is there a Novig promo code?

Novig’s program is link-based. Sign up through our link, verify your ID, link a payment method and deposit at least $10, and $25 in trade credits lands on the new account as five $5 credits usable on contracts priced up to 60 cents, expiring after 30 days. The code C92909 is only for readers the app asks to type one.

Is there a Kalshi promo code?

No. Kalshi runs a referral program rather than a code, and we do not promote a Kalshi sign-up bonus right now; any new-account offer is set by Kalshi and shown in-app at sign-up.

Do these offers change what I get?

No. Every venue pays us a referral credit or a commission out of its own marketing budget when you sign up through our link; the offer you receive is the venue’s standard new-member offer. We say so on every card because the FTC asks for the disclosure to sit next to the link, and because we would want the same from anyone giving us a tip.

Why is Fanatics Sportsbook on a prediction-market page?

Because the offer is real and we are paid on it, and hiding a paid relationship is worse than an awkward fit. Fanatics Sportsbook is a sportsbook, not a prediction market; the FanCash spends on Fanatics merchandise. It is labelled as such and is not a venue we price markets on.

What does “Terms verified” mean?

The date a person read the offer’s current terms on the venue’s own page and matched them to the card. Offer terms rot faster than anything else on this site, so a card older than 45 days greys out and says “re-verifying” until someone checks it again.

How should I size a trade made with a credit?

Like any other position: as a share of bankroll, not in units. Trade credits are usually restricted to cheaper contracts and expire, which argues for spreading them across several positions rather than one. The Kelly calculator sizes the position from your own probability estimate.

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