Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, December 13, 2026 · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Rams by 3 in Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers, NFL Week 14 2026 — 59% to win, and the second NFC West meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LARSF yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, 49ers at 36c or below (or Rams at 54c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LA
+6.3
SF
+0.8
Rams
59%
model win prob
49ers
41%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LARSFhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the 49ers at 36c or below, or the Rams at 54c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Rams and 49ers already played in Week 1, and now the Rams make the return trip in Week 14. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: +0.8 against +6.3, plus home field, equals the Rams by 3 (59%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +4.2 (1st of 32) against a 49ers defense at -2.9 (31st) — 7.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the 49ers offense (+2.9, 6th) meets the Rams defense (+1.9, 2nd), a 1.0-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the 49ers grade +0.9, 4th in the league, against +0.2 (22nd) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the standings side, NFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 1, so a season sweep is on the table here on the NFC West race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the 49ers at 8.8 wins (favored in 8 of 17) and the Rams at 11.3 (favored in 16) — 2.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 4th-hardest game on the 49ers' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Rams'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 30-17 in the 49ers' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Rams won 42-26 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the 49ers are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Rams at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LARSF, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: 49ers 41%, Rams 59%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes 49ers contracts a buy at 36c or below and Rams contracts a buy at 54c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Rams vs 49ers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Rams vs 49ers in Week 14?
Our power-rating model favors the Rams by 3 points, a 59% win probability over the 49ers. The 49ers rate 14th of 32 (+0.8) and the Rams 1st (+6.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LARSF yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a NFC West result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 1. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Rams by 3 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Rams vs 49ers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LARSF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the 49ers at 36c or below, or the Rams at 54c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the 49ers host the Rams?
Los Angeles Rams visit the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, December 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 14, at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA.
What does the model project for the 49ers and Rams this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the 49ers at 8.8 wins (favored in 8) and the Rams at 11.3 (favored in 16). This game ranks 4th-hardest on the 49ers' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Rams', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 59% on a team like the Rams?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Rams at 59% over the 49ers sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 1. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Rams–49ers, Week 1 →
More Week 14 matchups
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