Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, December 13, 2026 · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Rams by 1.5 in Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers, NFL Week 14 2026 — 54% to win, and the second NFC West meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LARSF yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, 49ers at 41c or below (or Rams at 49c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LAR
+5.1
SF
+1.0
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Rams
54%
model win prob
49ers
46%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
42%
Madden 27
58%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LARSF hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the 49ers at 41c or below, or the Rams at 49c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Rams at 49ers
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers −6.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 more rungs49ers −7.5 → 49ers −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Rams and 49ers already played in Week 1, and now the Rams make the return trip in Week 14. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: +1.0 against +5.1, plus home field, equals the Rams by 1.5 (54%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +4.3 (1st of 32) against a 49ers defense at -3.0 (31st) — 7.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the 49ers offense (+3.1, 6th) meets the Rams defense (+0.7, 7th), a 2.5-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the 49ers grade +0.9, 4th in the league, against +0.2 (22nd) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the standings side, NFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 1, so a season sweep is on the table here on the NFC West race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the 49ers at 8.9 wins (favored in 8 of 17) and the Rams at 10.6 (favored in 16) — 1.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 5th-hardest game on the 49ers' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Rams'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 30-17 in the 49ers' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Rams won 42-26 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the 49ers are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Rams at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LARSF is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 46% / 54% — the tradable window is narrow: 49ers at 41c or below, Rams at 49c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Rams vs 49ers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LARSF
- Market-implied (49ers)
- not listed yet
- Our model (49ers)
- 46%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LARSF yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the 49ers at 41c or below, or the Rams at 49c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Rams vs 49ers trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | 49ers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Rams vs 49ers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Rams vs 49ers in Week 14?
Our power-rating model picks the Rams by 1.5 points, a 54% win probability over the 49ers, for a projected score of Rams 28, 49ers 26 on a ratings-implied 53.8-point total. The 49ers rate 14th of 32 (+1.0) and the Rams 3rd (+5.1); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LARSF yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a NFC West result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 1. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Rams by 1.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Rams vs 49ers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LARSF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the 49ers at 41c or below, or the Rams at 49c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the 49ers host the Rams?
Los Angeles Rams visit the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, December 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 14, at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA.
What does the model project for the 49ers and Rams this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the 49ers at 8.9 wins (favored in 8) and the Rams at 10.6 (favored in 16). This game ranks 5th-hardest on the 49ers' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Rams', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Rams vs 49ers?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LARSF yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the 49ers at 41c or below or the Rams at 49c or below, off a 1.5-point line.
Can you trade Rams vs 49ers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 14 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LARSF. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 54% on a team like the Rams?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Rams at 54% over the 49ers sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 1. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Rams–49ers, Week 1 →
More Week 14 matchups
Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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