Updated · model ratings
Forked Wed 10/21 – Sat 10/24 on Lamar Jackson; ruled OUT Sat 10/24 3:47 PM ET. Tyler Huntley starts.
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 25, 2026): Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 — NFL Week 7, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bengals by 3 (60% to win); the Bengals won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Bengals at 61c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Bengals by 3 (60% to win). The Bengals won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Bengals: +19c — we archived the Bengals at 42c on Oct 18; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 61c on Oct 25. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 8 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Baltimore held the ball for 22:20 of the first half, outgained Cincinnati 258-59 and led only 13-0 after two short Tyler Loop field goals. The Bengals then scored touchdowns on their first five possessions of the second half: Burrow threw to Mike Gesicki, Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase and Drew Sample, and Samaje Perine ran one in. Higgins caught all six of his passes, for 148 yards, after halftime, and the Ravens were without Lamar Jackson for a third straight game. DraftKings opened Baltimore a 3.5-point favorite and closed it a 3-point underdog, a 6.5-point move through zero; Cincinnati won by 22, and 48 points finished over the closing 46.5 and under the opening 52.5.
Bengals 35—Ravens 13
Final✓ Call hitThe chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had Cincinnati at 60.5% (Baltimore 39.5%): the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 3-point line. Cincinnati won. The quarterback gate read ADJUSTED: the fork collapsed on Saturday when Jackson was ruled out, and the board priced Tyler Huntley. The model’s own read was Cincinnati by 1.4, a 1.6-point lean toward the Ravens, tier NONE, and the Bengals won by 22: the lean was wrong. The preview on this page said Cincinnati’s efficiency had moved to Higgins; he caught six for 148. The ledger held no row on this game. The final pre-kickoff board carried no PLAY rows. Eight visible WATCH rows went 4-4 and are graded apart, never folded into the record: Justice Hill over 9.5 receiving yards (26), Rashod Bateman over 1.5 catches (two) and both Perine rushing unders (24.5, 29.5, on 16) won; Derrick Henry’s two receiving overs (one catch for 4), Gesicki over 24.5 receiving yards (6) and Dohnte Meyers over 1.5 catches (none) lost. Three rows on suppressed stats (one Burrow passing-yards row, two anytime-touchdown rows) were never displayed and count in neither direction.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 6 to 46.5; the game landed on 48.
Q1
Huntley hit Zay Flowers for a 48-yard catch-and-run touchdown 84 seconds in. Baltimore’s next scoring drive started at its own 6, ran 18 plays and 11 minutes, and ended in Loop’s 34-yard field goal.
Q2
Baltimore’s third scoring drive went 82 yards in 13 plays and ended with Loop’s 24-yard field goal with 50 seconds left in the half. The Ravens went 0 for 3 in the red zone for the game and outgained Cincinnati 258-59 before halftime, per the AP.
Q3
Cincinnati went 66 yards on the first drive after halftime for Burrow’s 6-yard touchdown to Gesicki, and Baltimore went three-and-out. Burrow’s 13-yard touchdown to Higgins put the Bengals ahead to stay, 14-13, and Huntley’s fourth-and-2 throw from the Cincinnati 12 fell incomplete on the Ravens’ next drive.
Q4
The Bengals went 88 yards for Perine’s 1-yard run and 79 more for a 2-yard Burrow throw to Chase, and after Demetrius Knight Jr. intercepted Huntley they needed three plays for a 16-yard touchdown to Sample. The Ravens became the first team in 76 years to lead by at least 13 at halftime and lose by at least 20, per Sportradar via the AP, and Joe Flacco relieved Burrow late.
Reporting verified 2026-10-25. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Burrow throws 4 TD passes as Bengals storm past Jackson-less Ravens in 2nd half of 35-13 win
Baltimore ruled Lamar Jackson out on Saturday afternoon, so Tyler Huntley makes his third straight start and this game is back to one model line. The market never waited for the news: all week it sat on our no-Jackson number, not between our two. Underneath that, the football that holds either way: Derrick Henry against a Cincinnati front that wins more snaps at the line than anyone and bleeds badly when it loses, and Trey Hendrickson rushing at his former team while Baltimore’s own sack leader sits.
Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture
The Ravens ruled Jackson (ankle) out on Saturday, Oct. 24, at 3:47 p.m. ET, and Tyler Huntley starts for a third straight game. That collapses the Oracle Fork to one line, read from the stored fair-value row rewritten at 15:00 UTC on Oct. 25: Bengals by 1.4, QB-adjusted for Huntley. The market: Bengals by 3. From Wednesday on, the market sat on our no-Jackson line rather than between our two numbers — it had charged Baltimore the full price of his absence before Baltimore announced it. What the production split says about why: across fourteen quarters with Jackson this season Baltimore scored 116 points and fourteen offensive touchdowns; across ten quarters without him, 40 points and four. Jackson sits third in the league in expected points added per dropback at +0.29; Huntley is at −0.05. Huntley is 1-1 as a starter — a comeback win at Atlanta, then ten points in a loss at Cleveland. Because the line is QB-adjusted, our lean on this game is capped at WATCH, and no game position publishes on an adjusted line.
Ravens run offense · Bengals run defense
This is the piece that holds whoever starts, which is exactly why it leads the football. Baltimore’s identity is rushing volume, and Huntley’s one good start came off it. Cincinnati’s rebuilt front has the most distinctive profile in the league: it stuffs runs at the line more often than any other defense, and it concedes more expected points per rush than all but eight. A front that either wins at the line or gets run through is the front Henry punishes, because the stuffs are survivable and the misses are not — he has forced 29 missed tackles, sixth-most. He also leads the league in carries by a wide margin, which with a backup quarterback starting is the single most predictable thing on the field.
Source: bengals.com — Bengals-Ravens preview and scouting report, Week 7 (2026-10-20)
Both pass rushes
Pressure is the other lever that works regardless of who plays quarterback, and this week it is one-sided. Hendrickson returned in Week 6 with eight pressures and a sack and ranks third among edge rushers in pressure rate; he is also the one player on the field with a personal reason to be here. Baltimore’s answer is thinner than it was a month ago: Tavius Robinson leads the team with 3.5 sacks and did not practice Wednesday with a pectoral injury, and Calais Campbell was down for rest. Baltimore also had four offensive linemen limited on Wednesday — Ronnie Stanley, John Simpson, Andrew Vorhees and Olaivavega Ioane — which is the group that has to hold up whichever quarterback is behind it. On the other side, Joe Burrow leads the league in completion rate, which is the profile that punishes a thinned rush rather than a thick one.
Bengals pass offense · Ravens coverage
The quiet story of Cincinnati’s season is that the per-route production has migrated. Higgins is ninth in the league in yards per route run on the same reception total as Ja’Marr Chase, who sits at a career-low figure. Baltimore’s structural answer is six defensive backs: it plays dime at the second-highest rate in the league, which it can afford because Kyle Hamilton is used as a front-seven piece and leads all defensive backs in run stuffs. That combination — heavy dime, a safety playing like a linebacker, a thinned pass rush — is a defense that will concede the intermediate throw and dare Cincinnati to run into the stuff rate. Rashod Bateman was limited in a red non-contact jersey on Wednesday, which matters more to Baltimore’s own passing game with Huntley at quarterback.
Source: Fox Sports — 2026 NFL defense rankings, team pass-rush stats (through Week 6, 2026-10-20)
Reporting verified 2026-10-25. Further sources: baltimoreravens.com — Jackson out vs Bengals, Huntley starts (2026-10-24, 3:47 p.m. ET) · ESPN — Jackson returns to practice, status unclear vs Bengals (2026-10-21) · baltimoreravens.com — Week 7 injury report (2026-10-21, 3:33 p.m.) · The Baltimore Banner — Ravens-Bengals, Jackson’s ankle, Cam Jurgens (2026-10-21, 4:30 p.m. ET) · bengals.com — Week 7 preview and scouting report (2026-10-20) · bengals.com — Bengals-Ravens Week 7 injury report (2026-10-21, 4:42 p.m.) · Yahoo / The Athletic — Derrick Henry and the Ravens’ true shape (2026-10-22) · NFL.com — 2026 team offense rushing · Fox Sports — 2026 defense rankings, through Week 6 (2026-10-20) · NFL.com — 2026 league standings (BAL 4-2, CIN 3-2) · Yahoo — AFC North standings (2026-10-20)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
CIN
+1.9
BAL
+1.2
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Bengals
60%
fair value (books)
Ravens
40%
fair value (books)
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32%
Madden 27
68%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
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Ja'Marr Chase
WR
Chase Brown
RB
Derrick Henry
RB
Zay Flowers
WR
Tee Higgins
WR
Lamar Jackson
QB
Joe Burrow
QB
Mark Andrews
TE
Josh Cuevas
Rashod Bateman
Mike Gesicki
TE
Justice Hill
Ja'Kobi Lane
Dohnte Meyers
Nick Vannett
Devontez Walker
Matt Hibner
Cam Grandy
CIN Bengals D/ST
Colbie Young
Drew Sample
Mitchell Tinsley
Samaje Perine
One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 — the graded call is above.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens is a AFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 17. The model has the Bengals by 1.5 (54%) off a +1.2 to +1.9 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows. One input in this line is not a rating: the Ravens are without their usual starting quarterback (Tyler Huntley starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 3.2 points toward the Bengals — already inside the number above.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bengals offense grades +2.2 (7th of 32) against a Ravens defense at -1.1 (17th) — 3.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Ravens offense (+2.0, 10th) meets the Bengals defense (-1.0, 15th), a 3.0-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 17, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC North race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Ravens at 9.2 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Bengals at 10.6 (favored in 14) — 1.3 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Ravens' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Bengals'. Nothing on the Bengals' schedule projects harder than this one.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 25-23 in the Ravens' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Ravens won 24-0 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Ravens are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Bengals at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25CINBAL, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Full division picture on the AFC North hub.
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This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 40% for the Ravens. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
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Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 — final, played Sunday, October 25, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bengals by 3 (60% to win), and the Bengals won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Bengals by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Ravens. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT25CINBAL market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 17. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Bengals by 1.5 on ratings and home field alone.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT25CINBAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Ravens at 38c or below, or the Bengals at 58c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Cincinnati Bengals visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Ravens at 9.2 wins (favored in 10) and the Bengals at 10.6 (favored in 14). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Ravens' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Bengals', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25CINBAL, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 7 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT25CINBAL has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Bengals at 54% over the Ravens sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 40% against a market price implying 39%, an edge of +0.5 points. Model 40% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 39% on BAL — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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They run it back in Week 17. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Bengals–Ravens, Week 17 →
Patriots at BearsModel: Bears −2.5
Steelers at SaintsModel: Steelers −2.5
49ers at FalconsModel: 49ers −2
Buccaneers at PanthersModel: Panthers −3
Giants at TexansModel: Texans −5
Colts at VikingsModel: Vikings −4
Dolphins at JetsModel: Jets −4.5
Browns at TitansModel: Browns −1
Broncos at CardinalsModel: Broncos −2.5
Packers at LionsModel: Lions −1.5
Rams at RaidersModel: Rams −2.5
Chiefs at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −5
Cowboys at EaglesModel: Cowboys −1The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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