Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Ravens by 4.5 in Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens, NFL Week 7 2026 — 64% to win, and a AFC North game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25CINBAL yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Ravens at 59c or below (or Bengals at 31c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CIN
-0.6
BAL
+1.2
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Bengals
36%
model win prob
Ravens
64%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
32%
Madden 27
68%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT25CINBAL hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Ravens at 59c or below, or the Bengals at 31c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Bengals at Ravens
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Ravens −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
AFC North math: Bengals at Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens is a AFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 17. The model has the Ravens by 4.5 (64%) off a +1.2 to -0.6 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Ravens offense grades +1.0 (12th of 32) against a Bengals defense at -2.1 (25th) — 3.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bengals offense (+0.7, 15th) meets the Ravens defense (-0.3, 11th), a 0.9-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Bengals grade +0.8, 5th in the league, against +0.4 (15th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the standings side, AFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 17, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC North race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.2 projected wins for the Ravens against 8.6 for the Bengals, favored in 10 and 8 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 14th-hardest on the Ravens' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Bengals'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 25-23 in the Ravens' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Ravens won 24-0 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Ravens are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 64% on the Ravens here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25CINBAL, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Ravens 64%, Bengals 36%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Ravens contracts a buy at 59c or below and Bengals contracts a buy at 31c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bengals vs Ravens on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT25CINBAL
- Market-implied (Ravens)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Ravens)
- 64%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25CINBAL yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Ravens at 59c or below, or the Bengals at 31c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Bengals vs Ravens trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Ravens | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Bengals vs Ravens — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bengals vs Ravens in Week 7?
Our power-rating model picks the Ravens by 4.5 points, a 64% win probability over the Bengals, for a projected score of Ravens 26, Bengals 22 on a ratings-implied 48.1-point total. The Ravens rate 13th of 32 (+1.2) and the Bengals 21st (-0.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25CINBAL yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC North result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 17. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Ravens by 4.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Bengals vs Ravens?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT25CINBAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Ravens at 59c or below, or the Bengals at 31c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Ravens host the Bengals?
Cincinnati Bengals visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD.
What does the model project for the Ravens and Bengals this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Ravens at 9.2 wins (favored in 10) and the Bengals at 8.6 (favored in 8). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Ravens' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Bengals', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bengals vs Ravens?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25CINBAL yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Ravens at 59c or below or the Bengals at 31c or below, off a 4.5-point line.
Can you trade Bengals vs Ravens on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 7 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT25CINBAL. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 64% on a team like the Ravens?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Ravens at 64% over the Bengals sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 17. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Bengals–Ravens, Week 17 →
More Week 7 matchups
Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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