Raiders vs 49ers Prediction — Week 9, Sun Nov 8
Updated · market price
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Quick Answer
As of October 28, 2026, Kalshi implies 83% for the 49ers in Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers, NFL Week 9 2026, while the market line has the 49ers by 9.5 (80% to win) — a 2.5pp gap. Value side: the Raiders. The PredictionMarketsPicks model's own line is 49ers by 9.5 against a market line of 49ers by 9.5 — a 0.2-point lean toward the Raiders, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →
Week 9 · 2026-10-281 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 2.5pp on Raiders moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
LV
-4.2
SF
+2.7
Raiders
20%
fair value (books)
49ers
80%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
29%
Madden 27
71%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Raiders at 49ers How to read the Ladder →
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Raiders vs 49ers power ratings (Week 9) What PWR measures →
Raiders and 49ers season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Raiders vs 49ers — player pages
All players →One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Why the model has the 49ers by 9.5
The model does not think this one is close. The 49ers rate 6th of 32 at +2.7, the Raiders 29th at -4.2, and once home field is applied the line lands on the 49ers by 9.5 — 74% to win. That is the 2nd-widest gap among the 15 games on the Week 9 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Raiders need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the 49ers offense grades +3.8 (2nd of 32) against a Raiders defense at -3.1 (29th) — 6.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Raiders offense (-1.3, 27th) meets the 49ers defense (-1.7, 21st), a 0.4-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the 49ers grade +0.6, 6th in the league, against +0.1 (24th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the 49ers at 11.9 wins (favored in 14 of 17) and the Raiders at 6.9 (favored in 3) — 5.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the 49ers' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Raiders'.
On the calendar, the Raiders are on 7 days and the 49ers come off their bye. The Raiders come in off the Jets, the 49ers off the Falcons. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
One team has owned this series: the 49ers are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: 49ers won 37-34 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the 49ers are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 74% 49ers number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV08LVSF contract implies 83% for the 49ers against a fair value (books) of 80% — a 2.5-point gap. That clears our floor for a position (2 points net of the book's spread), which flags the Raiders as the value side at 19c.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Raiders vs 49ers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV08LVSF
- Market-implied (49ers)
- 83c · 83%
- Fair value — books (49ers)
- 80%
- Fair value vs market
- -2.5pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26NOV08LVSF. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 83c on the 49ers is an implied 83% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 80%, a 2.5pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Raiders vs 49ers line history
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 10, had the 49ers −8.5 (DraftKings). The median across 5 books now is the 49ers −9.5. On Kalshi the 49ers trade at 83¢ to win, a 83% implied chance.
| Book | Earliest line we archived | Now | Spread trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 49ers −8.5 · O/U 46.5Sep 10 | 49ers −9.5 · O/U 48.5 | |
| FanDuel | 49ers −9.5 · O/U 48.5Oct 27 | 49ers −9.5 · O/U 48.5 | |
| Caesars | 49ers −9.5 · O/U 46Sep 10 | 49ers −9.5 · O/U 48.5 | |
| BetRivers | 49ers −9.5 · O/U 48.5Oct 27 | 49ers −9.5 · O/U 48.5 | |
| Novig | 49ers −9.5 · O/U 48.5Oct 27 | 49ers −9.5 · O/U 48.5 | |
| Kalshi | a contract, not a spread | 49ers 83¢ to win |
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. “Earliest line we archived” is our first capture, which is not necessarily the market’s open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchange’s own moneyline contract.
Where Raiders vs 49ers trades Why the venues differ →
3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | 49ers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 83% 83c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 81% 81c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket.com (international) | no captured price for this game — international book | Informational |
| Polymarket USPolymarketPartnerUS exchange — separate book | 83% 83c | Open Polymarket US → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 83% 83c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 83% 83c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Raiders at 49ers
Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 2:06 PM ET
| Game lines | Kalshi2:18 PM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner2:06 PM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders to win | 18¢19¢ after fees | 18¢19¢ after fees | Even |
| 49ers to win | 83¢84¢ after fees | 84¢84.9¢ after fees | Even |
Sponsored by Polymarket US
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Polymarket US lists 400 other markets for this game that we haven’t matched to a Kalshi contract (first score, first touchdown, double result, exact margin, race to points).
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question: the same team, the same line, the same player, stat and threshold. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
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Watch the breakdown: Raiders vs 49ers
Raiders vs 49ers — frequently asked
Who will win 49ers vs Raiders?
The market line has the 49ers at 80% to beat the Raiders in Week 9.
Who is favored in Raiders vs 49ers in Week 9?
The market line has the 49ers by 9.5 points, a 80% win probability over the Raiders (our model's own line: 49ers by 9.5). Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV08LVSF market implies 83% for the 49ers — a 2.5pp gap versus the market line.
What would it take for the Raiders to win?
The 9.5-point line comes from a 6.9-point rating gap, 2.5 points of home field, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Raiders still project at 20% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Raiders defense (-3.1, 29th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Raiders vs 49ers?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26NOV08LVSF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. 49ers YES is quoted around 83c against a fair value (books) of 80%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the 49ers host the Raiders?
Las Vegas Raiders visit the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, November 8, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 9, at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA.
What does the model project for the 49ers and Raiders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the 49ers at 11.9 wins (favored in 14) and the Raiders at 6.9 (favored in 3). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the 49ers' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Raiders', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Raiders vs 49ers?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26NOV08LVSF. The 49ers YES contract sits around 83c, which is an implied 83% — against our books-anchored fair value of 80%. That is a 2.5pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Raiders vs 49ers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 9 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV08LVSF. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 74% on a team like the 49ers?
71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The 49ers at 74% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 9.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if Raiders vs 49ers ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
Is Raiders moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 20% against a market price implying 18%, an edge of +2.5 points. Model 20% vs market 18% on LV. We rate it a position, sized at 0.8% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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After this one
More Week 9 matchups
Jaguars at RavensModel: Ravens −1
Bengals at FalconsModel: Bengals −2.5
Broncos at PanthersModel: even
Cowboys at ColtsModel: Colts −1.5
Jets at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5
Lions at DolphinsModel: Lions −2.5
Browns at SaintsModel: Saints −0.5
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Rams at CommandersModel: Rams −2.5
Texans at ChargersModel: Texans −1
Packers at PatriotsModel: Patriots −4
Cardinals at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −11
Buccaneers at BearsModel: Bears −5
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The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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