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Los Angeles Chargers: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge

Board as of Oct 23, 2026 · prices live

The prediction-market read on the Chargers: our 10,000-season simulation projects 4.3 wins in 2026 (31st of 32, Below Avg tier; model 4.4), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and AFC West standing below.

This week on the boardNFL Week 7 predictions →NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines →Week 6 results →

Week 7 gamesPatriots at Bears Steelers at Saints 49ers at Falcons Bengals at Ravens Buccaneers at Panthers Giants at Texans Colts at Vikings Dolphins at Jets Browns at Titans Broncos at Cardinals Packers at Lions Rams at Raiders Chiefs at Seahawks Cowboys at Eagles

Entering Week 7: experts 31 · market-implied 25 · PMP 27. Experts vs. market on the Chargers →

2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi

Los Angeles Chargers

AFC West · 28th power rating · Below Avg

Kalshi live

4.3 projected wins
± 1.6 · 31st of 32

Kalshi market

4.43w

Ladder-implied wins

7 Oracles sim

4.33w

59.6% backtested

Divergence

-0.10w

Market higher

Model agrees with the market

Divergence is projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line, in wins — LOW on the one ladder every season-wins surface grades on (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); OVER / UNDER fires at ±2.0. Projected wins are the 10,000-season simulation mean; the model — wins already banked plus the rest of the season — reads 4.4. No single rung sits near 50¢.

See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.

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A live card locked to the Los Angeles Chargers — projected 2026 wins against the Kalshi KXNFLWINS line for this one club, not "whichever team has the biggest gap today" — for a fan site, a newsletter or a subreddit sidebar. Free; the credit line is the only ask. No API key, no signup.

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The consensus spread

Three independent estimates of the same season on one line: the expected wins implied by the live Kalshi ladder, our 10,000-season simulation, and EA’s Madden 27 simulation. Where they disagree is the whole signal.

3.89 wins of disagreement

4.33 Our sim

4.43 Kalshi

8.22 Madden 27

0.63.56.39.111.9

Our sim and the Madden simulation land on opposite sides of the 4.43 market line. They disagree with each other, so this is a market to watch rather than one to build a position in.

Madden is far higher on the Chargers than our model is — 15th on talent versus 28th on play-by-play, a 13-place gap. EA sees a roster our model hasn't seen produce yet.

Where the season actually lands

A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position — the full distribution against the contract line can. Bars are the Madden 27 simulation over 10,000 seasons; the dashed marker is the live contract.

Kalshi 4.43 01234567891011121314151617

45%

our probability
of clearing 4.43

Madden sim: 90%
-5.4pp vs a coin flip

Our probability from the 10,000-season simulation (mean 4.33 wins; model, banked wins plus the rest of the season, 4.40 ± 1.61). Bars: Madden 27 sim-2026, 10,000 iterations. Two methods, no shared inputs.

The Ladder — Chargers

All ladders →

The season simulation at every Kalshi win-total rung, then the widest player-prop gap on this club this week. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the simulation alone.

ChargersSeason winsMARKET READView 5+ wins on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 5+ wins at 44¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

StrikeKalshi YES · 0–100¢Take itBooksGap

17+
wins
thin
—
outside band
16+
wins
thin
—
outside band
15+
wins
thin
—
outside band
14+
wins
thin
—
outside band
13+
wins
thin
—
outside band
12+
wins
thin
—
outside band
11+
wins
thin
—
outside band
10+
wins
thin
—
outside band
9+
wins
thin
—
outside band
8+
wins
YES 12¢ · pays 8.3x NO 93¢
—
outside band
7+
wins
YES 16¢ · pays 6.3x NO 86¢
—
outside band
6+
wins
YES 29¢ · pays 3.4x NO 74¢
—
outside band
5+
wins
YES 46¢ · pays 2.2x NO 59¢
—
—
Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 4–5
4+
wins
YES 65¢ · pays 1.5x NO 40¢
—
—
3+
wins
YES 83¢ · pays 1.2x NO 23¢
—
outside band
2+
wins
YES 96¢ · pays 1x NO 9¢
—
outside band
1+
wins
thin
—
outside band

Headline rung · 5+ wins

YES 46¢NO 59¢

pays 2.2x · books — · Oracle 🔒

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Legend

Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.

Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Market edges

The season contract and the single game most likely to move it, graded on the same thresholds every other Gridiron Edge surface uses.

◆ LOW confidence 4.43 · Under

Season wins under 4.43

Our 10,000-season simulation projects 4.33 (model 4.40), the Madden 27 simulation 8.22, against 4.43 market-implied wins — a -0.10-win gap. LOW on the wins ladder (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); a side is flagged only at the 2.0-win STRONG rung, so the honest read is no position.

◆ MODERATE confidence Wk 16 · Away

Week 16 at Dolphins

The truest coin flip on the schedule at 47%. Games this close are where a season win total is actually decided — and where a live in-week contract is most likely to be mispriced. Full read →

Informational only. Contracts can settle at $0 — verify the market and trade responsibly.

Power rating breakdown

Diverging from league average rather than four flat numbers, so a positive reads as a positive at a glance. Points per game.

Overall -3.2

Offense -3.5

Defense +0.3

Special teams +0.1

Overall -3.2 ranks 28th of 32 (Below Avg tier). How Chargers rank on the points scale → Re-weight the model yourself →

Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (59.6% backtested straight-up accuracy across 3,266 games, no market line used).

The season path

Seventeen weeks as a heat ribbon — the shape of the season in one glance, each cell linking to that game’s full read. The sortable table stays below it.

0 Cardinals 1 0 Raiders 2 0 @Bills 3 0 @Seahawks 4 0 Broncos 5 0 @Chiefs 6 30 @Rams 8 45 Texans 9 30 @Ravens 10 54 Jets 11 38 Patriots 12 36 @Buccaneers 13 43 @Raiders 14 39 49ers 15 47 @Dolphins 16 45 Chiefs 17 32 @Broncos 18

Loss likelyWin likely— cumulative expected wins

Roster shape vs the league

Nine position groups against league average. Each axis is scaled on its own league range — a shared 0-100 scale flattens every roster into the same circle.

9 Quarterback 90

13 O-Line 81

28 Receiver 79

18 Tight End 80

29 Running Back 81

22 Pass Rush 80

20 Linebacker 76

9 Secondary 83

4 Special Teams 81

Dashed violet ring = league average. Number chip = rank of 32. Source: Madden 27 launch team composites (derived unit aggregates, no per-player data).

2026 schedule & model win probabilities

All 17 regular-season games. Played games show the final; the rest show Our %, the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=14.4 — those numbers plus the 0-6 already banked sum to the model's 4.4 wins; the 4.3-win headline above is the 10,000-season simulation, which adds rating uncertainty (and fits its own home-field, 2.0) on top of these same ratings. Madden % is the same question asked of Madden 27 talent composites, a model that shares none of our inputs.

WeekOpponentH/AOur %Madden %

Wk 1vs Arizona CardinalsHOMEL 14-26

Wk 2vs Las Vegas RaidersHOMEL 14-26

Wk 3at Buffalo BillsAWAYL 16-24

Wk 4at Seattle SeahawksAWAYL 23-30

Wk 5vs Denver BroncosHOMEL 17-23

Wk 6at Kansas City ChiefsAWAYL 6-22

Wk 8at Los Angeles RamsAWAY30%34%

Wk 9vs Houston TexansHOME45%57%

Wk 10at Baltimore RavensAWAY30%33%

Wk 11vs New York JetsHOME54%67%

Wk 12vs New England PatriotsHOME38%50%

Wk 13at Tampa Bay BuccaneersAWAY36%48%

Wk 14at Las Vegas RaidersAWAY43%48%

Wk 15vs San Francisco 49ersHOME39%43%

Wk 16at Miami DolphinsAWAY47%61%

Wk 17vs Kansas City ChiefsHOME45%47%

Wk 18at Denver BroncosAWAY32%44%

Chargers player pages

All players →

One page per player: every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

AFC West ladder

Projected wins across the division, leader in gold — and four internal reads a click away.

Chiefs 11.2 +1.2

Broncos 10.2 +1.3

Raiders 7.5 -3.2

Chargers 4.3 -3.2

Model has the Chargers 4th in the AFC West. Division hub →

Division odds: Chargers 1¢ to win the AFC West on Kalshi.

10,000-season simulation

How it works →

Our current board, with the 94 games already played locked in and the remaining schedule played out 10,000 times with the league's actual tiebreaker procedure. The projection above is the middle of this; these are the odds around it. The sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games) — a separate fit from the +2.5 the game model uses on matchup pages.

Sim average wins

4.3

10,000 seasons · 1% reach 10+

Make playoffs

85% win 6 or fewer

Win division

0% take the 1 seed

Win Super Bowl

0.1%

31st of 32 · 0% reach it

The Chargers draw a 0.525 opponent win rate — the 3rd-hardest schedule in the league.

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings. Real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule. No injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices.

Madden 27 outlook

Full board →

A second opinion, built from Madden 27 launch ratings alone and played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times. It knows nothing about our own model — which is what makes the disagreement worth reading.

Madden rank

81.2 composite · QB 90

Simulated wins

8.2

33% reach 10+

Playoffs

41%

20% win division

Super Bowl

2.3%

SoS 0.514 (5th hardest)

Madden is far higher on the Chargers than our model is — 15th on talent versus 28th on play-by-play, a 13-place gap. EA sees a roster our model hasn't seen produce yet.

Madden-only inputs — no injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices. Average error on a season win total is 2.27 wins, so the distribution is the product, not the mean. The 10,000-season simulation →

Chargers 2026 — frequently asked

What is the Los Angeles Chargers win total for 2026?

The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 4.4 wins for the Chargers in 2026. Our 10,000-season simulation on our DAEPA power ratings projects 4.3 wins — a 0.1-win agreement with the market (LOW on our wins ladder).

Where do the Chargers rank in our 2026 power ratings?

The Chargers sit at a -3.2-point power rating — 28th of 32 — in the Below Avg tier. That rating (offense -3.5, defense +0.3, special teams +0.1) is the input behind every Chargers prediction-market edge we publish.

Can you trade Los Angeles Chargers games on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Chargers season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.

What division are the Chargers in for 2026?

The Chargers play in the AFC West, alongside Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders. Our model has them projected 4th in the AFC West on 4.3 expected wins.

Trade Chargers markets on Kalshi →Kalshi NFL hub →All 32 win totals →Full 18-week schedule →

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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

More Chargers markets

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This team in the first-quarter report

Record, point differential, the market price then and now, our simulation and the next three games, on one card. Read the report →