Indianapolis Colts: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge
Board as of · prices live
The prediction-market read on the Colts: our 10,000-season simulation projects 7.2 wins in 2026 (22nd of 32, Average tier; model 7.2), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and AFC South standing below.
This week on the boardNFL Week 7 predictions →NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines →Week 6 results →
Week 7 gamesPatriots at BearsSteelers at Saints49ers at FalconsBengals at RavensBuccaneers at PanthersGiants at TexansColts at VikingsDolphins at JetsBrowns at TitansBroncos at CardinalsPackers at LionsRams at RaidersChiefs at SeahawksCowboys at Eagles
Entering Week 7: experts 27 · market-implied 22 · PMP 21. Experts vs. market on the Colts →
2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi
Indianapolis Colts
± 1.6 · 22nd of 32
Model agrees with the market
Divergence is projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line, in wins — LOW on the one ladder every season-wins surface grades on (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); OVER / UNDER fires at ±2.0. Projected wins are the 10,000-season simulation mean; the model — wins already banked plus the rest of the season — reads 7.2. No single rung sits near 50¢.
See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
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The consensus spread
Three independent estimates of the same season on one line: the expected wins implied by the live Kalshi ladder, our 10,000-season simulation, and EA’s Madden 27 simulation. Where they disagree is the whole signal.
Both independent models sit on the same side of the market line — our sim at 7.20 and the Madden simulation at 9.42 against 7.15 implied wins. That is the cleanest version of this signal.
Madden is far higher on the Colts than our model is — 11th on talent versus 22nd on play-by-play, an 11-place gap. EA sees a roster our model hasn't seen produce yet.
Where the season actually lands
A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position — the full distribution against the contract line can. Bars are the Madden 27 simulation over 10,000 seasons; the dashed marker is the live contract.
of clearing 7.15
-6.0pp vs a coin flip
Our probability from the 10,000-season simulation (mean 7.20 wins; model, banked wins plus the rest of the season, 7.22 ± 1.62). Bars: Madden 27 sim-2026, 10,000 iterations. Two methods, no shared inputs.
The Ladder — Colts
All ladders →The season simulation at every Kalshi win-total rung, then the widest player-prop gap on this club this week. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the simulation alone.
Kalshi prices 8+ wins at 45¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 17+winsthin—outside band
- 15+winsthin—outside band
- 14+winsthin—outside band
- 13+winsthin—outside band
- 12+winsthin—outside band
- 11+wins—outside band
- 10+wins—outside band
- 9+wins—outside band
- 8+wins——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 7–8
- 7+wins——
- 6+wins—outside band
- 5+wins—outside band
- 4+wins—outside band
- 3+winsthin—outside band
- 2+winsthin—outside band
- 1+winsthin—outside band
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 2+ rec at 60¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 3+rec——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 1–2
- 2+rec61¢—
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 2+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 42¢, the books imply 39¢ — 1.6 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 6+ rec at 43¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 8+rec——
- 7+rec——
- 6+rec——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 5–6
- 5+rec58¢—
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 5+ rec Kalshi's YES costs 59¢, the books imply 58¢ — 1.0 points above the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Market edges
The season contract and the single game most likely to move it, graded on the same thresholds every other Gridiron Edge surface uses.
Season wins over 7.15
Our 10,000-season simulation projects 7.20 (model 7.22), the Madden 27 simulation 9.42, against 7.15 market-implied wins — a +0.05-win gap. LOW on the wins ladder (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); a side is flagged only at the 2.0-win STRONG rung, so the honest read is no position.
Week 16 vs Bengals
The truest coin flip on the schedule at 50%. Games this close are where a season win total is actually decided — and where a live in-week contract is most likely to be mispriced. Full read →
Informational only. Contracts can settle at $0 — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Power rating breakdown
Diverging from league average rather than four flat numbers, so a positive reads as a positive at a glance. Points per game.
Overall -1.2 ranks 22nd of 32 (Average tier). How Colts rank on the points scale → Re-weight the model yourself →
Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (59.6% backtested straight-up accuracy across 3,266 games, no market line used).
The season path
Seventeen weeks as a heat ribbon — the shape of the season in one glance, each cell linking to that game’s full read. The sortable table stays below it.
Roster shape vs the league
Nine position groups against league average. Each axis is scaled on its own league range — a shared 0-100 scale flattens every roster into the same circle.
Dashed violet ring = league average. Number chip = rank of 32. Source: Madden 27 launch team composites (derived unit aggregates, no per-player data).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Played games show the final; the rest show Our %, the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=14.4 — those numbers plus the 2-4 already banked sum to the model's 7.2 wins; the 7.2-win headline above is the 10,000-season simulation, which adds rating uncertainty (and fits its own home-field, 2.0) on top of these same ratings. Madden % is the same question asked of Madden 27 talent composites, a model that shares none of our inputs.
Colts props: where the market prices are
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — our Oracle calls are the opinion.
No Kalshi strike in this slice is 5¢+ off the sportsbooks right now — the market agrees with itself.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan AllenIND v MIN | 40+ rec yds | 53.0¢ | 50.2%3bk | +2.8¢ | over · DK 53.1¢under · Kalshi 49.8¢ |
| Laquon TreadwellIND v MIN | 2+ rec | 59.5¢ | 61.1%4bk | -1.6¢ | over · Kalshi 62.7¢under · Novig 38¢ |
| Keenan AllenIND v MIN | 5+ rec | 58.5¢ | 57.5%5bk | +1.0¢ | over · Fanatics 60¢under · Novig 42¢ |
| Josh DownsIND v MIN | 50+ rec yds | 50.0¢ | 49.1%2bk | +0.9¢ | over · DK 49.8¢under · Kalshi 52.8¢ |
| Josh DownsIND v MIN | 5+ rec | 51.5¢ | 51.0%5bk | +0.5¢ | over · DK 51.7¢under · Novig 50¢ |
| Will MalloryIND v MIN | 2+ rec | 58.0¢ | 57.5%3bk | +0.5¢ | over · Fanatics 60.8¢under · Novig 42¢ |
| Jonathan TaylorIND v MIN | 3+ rec | 46.5¢ | 46.9%5bk | -0.4¢ | over · ProphetX 48.1¢under · Novig 53.5¢ |
| Jonathan TaylorIND v MIN | 70+ rush yds | 51.5¢ | 51.2%2bk | +0.3¢ | over · Novig 53.9¢under · Novig 51¢ |
See all 60 priced prop strikes on the board →+ 80 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
Colts player pages
All players →Jonathan Taylor
RB
Tyler Warren
TE
Josh Downs
WR
Daniel Jones
QB
Keenan Allen
Laquon Treadwell
Will Mallory
Deion Burks
Drew Ogletree
Mo Alie-Cox
Seth McGowan
Alec Pierce
Anthony Gould
Anthony Richardson
Ashton Dulin
Coleman Owen
DJ Giddens
Easton Stick
Eli Pancol
Jack Doyle
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Riley Leonard
Sean McKeon
Ulysses Bentley
One page per player: every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
AFC South ladder
Projected wins across the division, leader in gold — and four internal reads a click away.
Jaguars
10.6
+2.8
Texans
8.0
+1.1
Colts
7.2
-1.2
Titans
4.9
-4.7
Model has the Colts 3rd in the AFC South. Division hub →
Division odds: Colts 7¢ to win the AFC South on Kalshi.
10,000-season simulation
How it works →Our current board, with the 94 games already played locked in and the remaining schedule played out 10,000 times with the league's actual tiebreaker procedure. The projection above is the middle of this; these are the odds around it. The sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games) — a separate fit from the +2.5 the game model uses on matchup pages.
Sim average wins
7.2
10,000 seasons · 14% reach 10+
Make playoffs
18%
38% win 6 or fewer
Win division
12%
0% take the 1 seed
Win Super Bowl
0.9%
24th of 32 · 2% reach it
The Colts draw a 0.490 opponent win rate — the 23rd-hardest schedule in the league.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings. Real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule. No injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices.
Madden 27 outlook
Full board →A second opinion, built from Madden 27 launch ratings alone and played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times. It knows nothing about our own model — which is what makes the disagreement worth reading.
Madden rank
11
81.8 composite · QB 78
Simulated wins
9.4
50% reach 10+
Playoffs
60%
43% win division
Super Bowl
3.5%
SoS 0.477 (31st hardest)
Madden is far higher on the Colts than our model is — 11th on talent versus 22nd on play-by-play, an 11-place gap. EA sees a roster our model hasn't seen produce yet.
Madden-only inputs — no injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices. Average error on a season win total is 2.27 wins, so the distribution is the product, not the mean. The 10,000-season simulation →
Colts 2026 — frequently asked
What is the Indianapolis Colts win total for 2026?
The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 7.1 wins for the Colts in 2026. Our 10,000-season simulation on our DAEPA power ratings projects 7.2 wins — a 0.1-win agreement with the market (LOW on our wins ladder).
Where do the Colts rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The Colts sit at a -1.2-point power rating — 22nd of 32 — in the Average tier. That rating (offense -0.3, defense -1.7, special teams +0.8) is the input behind every Colts prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade Indianapolis Colts games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Colts season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the Colts in for 2026?
The Colts play in the AFC South, alongside Texans, Jaguars, Titans. Our model has them projected 3rd in the AFC South on 7.2 expected wins.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
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- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
This team in the first-quarter report
Record, point differential, the market price then and now, our simulation and the next three games, on one card. Read the report →