NESuper BowlMODERATEYES
Our Prob
9.9%
Market
3¢
Edge
+6.9pp
2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 1 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 1 game priced against the live prediction market.
Free through Week 1. The full board is open — no signup. From September 15 the top 8 rows stay free and the rest becomes part of Pro. Game edges at /nfl/edges stay free permanently. Contracts trade on Kalshi.
NFL Championship Edges — 2026
Board as of · prices live
Monte Carlo playoff + Super Bowl probabilities vs. Kalshi — with DraftKings’ implied price as a third column on the Super Bowl board. Playoff, conference, Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Winner (1)
NESuper BowlConference Champion (4)
NEConference ChampionHIGHYES
Our Prob
17.2%
Market
8¢
Edge
+9.2pp
SEAConference ChampionMODERATEYES
Our Prob
16.8%
Market
10¢
Edge
+6.8pp
SFConference ChampionMODERATENO
Our Prob
6.0%
Market
11¢
Edge
-5.0pp
KCConference ChampionMODERATENO
Our Prob
5.0%
Market
11¢
Edge
-6.0pp
Make Playoffs (20)
CLEMake PlayoffsSTRONGYES
Our Prob
35.6%
Market
12¢
Edge
+23.6pp
NEMake PlayoffsSTRONGYES
Our Prob
72.3%
Market
54¢
Edge
+18.3pp
MIAMake PlayoffsSTRONGYES
Our Prob
23.0%
Market
5¢
Edge
+18.0pp
ATLMake PlayoffsSTRONGYES
Our Prob
43.7%
Market
27¢
Edge
+16.7pp
ARIMake PlayoffsSTRONGYES
Our Prob
18.1%
Market
6¢
Edge
+12.1pp
INDMake PlayoffsHIGHYES
Our Prob
46.2%
Market
37¢
Edge
+9.2pp
TENMake PlayoffsHIGHYES
Our Prob
24.6%
Market
16¢
Edge
+8.6pp
SEAMake PlayoffsHIGHYES
Our Prob
74.2%
Market
66¢
Edge
+8.2pp
JAXMake PlayoffsMODERATEYES
Our Prob
57.6%
Market
50¢
Edge
+7.6pp
WASMake PlayoffsMODERATEYES
Our Prob
30.6%
Market
25¢
Edge
+5.6pp
CARMake PlayoffsMODERATEYES
Our Prob
32.0%
Market
27¢
Edge
+5.0pp
PHIMake PlayoffsMODERATENO
Our Prob
55.5%
Market
61¢
Edge
-5.5pp
DALMake PlayoffsMODERATENO
Our Prob
45.1%
Market
52¢
Edge
-6.9pp
HOUMake PlayoffsMODERATENO
Our Prob
56.1%
Market
63¢
Edge
-6.9pp
DETMake PlayoffsMODERATENO
Our Prob
57.5%
Market
65¢
Edge
-7.5pp
MINMake PlayoffsSTRONGNO
Our Prob
24.8%
Market
41¢
Edge
-16.2pp
BALMake PlayoffsSTRONGNO
Our Prob
54.2%
Market
71¢
Edge
-16.8pp
SFMake PlayoffsSTRONGNO
Our Prob
53.8%
Market
71¢
Edge
-17.2pp
KCMake PlayoffsSTRONGNO
Our Prob
42.8%
Market
60¢
Edge
-17.3pp
CINMake PlayoffsSTRONGNO
Our Prob
45.8%
Market
64¢
Edge
-18.2pp
Probabilities come from a Monte Carlo bracket simulation driven by our team power ratings (PWR). STRONG ≥12pp · HIGH ≥8pp · MODERATE ≥5pp · LOW <5pp. Home-field advantage and PWR win-variance are heuristic defaults pending 2019–2024 backtest calibration — treat the tier as the conviction signal, not the raw pp. Full methodology →
NFL championship markets — FAQ
How are NFL championship odds priced on prediction markets?
Each team gets a yes/no contract that settles at $1 if they win the title and $0 otherwise, so its price in cents is the market-implied probability of winning. Kalshi runs Super Bowl, conference (AFC/NFC) and division champion markets. Because there is no sportsbook vig, the prices across all teams sum close to 100% rather than the 130%+ a book would show.
What is the difference between conference and Super Bowl champion markets?
The conference market (AFC or NFC champion) settles when a team reaches the Super Bowl; the Super Bowl champion market settles only when a team wins it. A team is always at least as likely to win its conference as the title, so its conference price sits above its Super Bowl price — the gap is the implied probability of losing the Super Bowl after reaching it.
Can you trade NFL championship futures in your state?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available to traders in all 50 states, so its NFL championship contracts are tradeable nationwide. You take a position on a team and it settles at $1 or $0 — a contract, not a wager against a house line.
NFL Futures Markets
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner, win probability and projected score for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale