Our Prob
9.9%
Market
16¢
Edge
-6.1pp
2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 7 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 7 game priced against the live prediction market.
Board as of · prices live
Monte Carlo playoff + Super Bowl probabilities vs. Kalshi — with DraftKings’ implied price as a third column on the Super Bowl board. Playoff, conference, Super Bowl.
Our Prob
9.9%
Market
16¢
Edge
-6.1pp
Our Prob
14.6%
Market
7¢
Edge
+7.6pp
Our Prob
11.3%
Market
17¢
Edge
-5.7pp
Our Prob
18.9%
Market
25¢
Edge
-6.1pp
Our Prob
4.7%
Market
11¢
Edge
-6.3pp
Our Prob
52.7%
Market
31¢
Edge
+21.7pp
Our Prob
48.1%
Market
30¢
Edge
+18.1pp
Our Prob
31.8%
Market
16¢
Edge
+15.8pp
Our Prob
19.1%
Market
6¢
Edge
+13.1pp
Showing 9 of 21 — free, always.
Pro opens the full board, plus edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, the cross-market scanner and agent access over MCP. 26% off your first year ($111) — code applies automatically, ends Dec 31.
Probabilities come from a Monte Carlo bracket simulation driven by our team power ratings (PWR). STRONG ≥12pp · HIGH ≥8pp · MODERATE ≥5pp · LOW <5pp. Home-field advantage and PWR win-variance are heuristic defaults pending 2019–2024 backtest calibration — treat the tier as the conviction signal, not the raw pp. Full methodology →
Every championship probability above starts from PWR. All 32 teams ranked by points per game above average, with tier and movement — the why behind each price.
Each team gets a yes/no contract that settles at $1 if they win the title and $0 otherwise, so its price in cents is the market-implied probability of winning. Kalshi runs Super Bowl, conference (AFC/NFC) and division champion markets. Because there is no sportsbook vig, the prices across all teams sum close to 100% rather than the 130%+ a book would show.
The conference market (AFC or NFC champion) settles when a team reaches the Super Bowl; the Super Bowl champion market settles only when a team wins it. A team is always at least as likely to win its conference as the title, so its conference price sits above its Super Bowl price — the gap is the implied probability of losing the Super Bowl after reaching it.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available to traders in all 50 states, so its NFL championship contracts are tradeable nationwide. You take a position on a team and it settles at $1 or $0 — a contract, not a wager against a house line.
How the title market moved
Every team’s Super Bowl, conference and playoff price on Sept 8 and Oct 8, in the first-quarter report. Read the report →