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NFL EDGES

Live game edges — model vs. Kalshi, ranked

Gridiron Edge · 5-min refresh

NFL 2026

Power rankings, futures & win totals — all 32 teams

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2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 7 model lines vs. Kalshi

Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 7 game priced against the live prediction market.

Week 7 edges →
Gridiron EdgeChampionshipPRO

NFL Championship Edges — 2026

Board as of · prices live

Monte Carlo playoff + Super Bowl probabilities vs. Kalshi — with DraftKings’ implied price as a third column on the Super Bowl board. Playoff, conference, Super Bowl.

BETA

Super Bowl Winner (1)

Conference Champion (4)

New England Patriots logoNEConference Champion
MODERATEYES

Our Prob

14.6%

Market

7¢

Edge

+7.6pp

Kansas City Chiefs logoKCConference Champion
MODERATENO

Our Prob

11.3%

Market

17¢

Edge

-5.7pp

San Francisco 49ers logoSFConference Champion
MODERATENO

Our Prob

18.9%

Market

25¢

Edge

-6.1pp

Los Angeles Rams logoLARConference Champion
MODERATENO

Our Prob

4.7%

Market

11¢

Edge

-6.3pp

Make Playoffs (4)

Showing 9 of 21 — free, always.

Pro opens the full board, plus edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, the cross-market scanner and agent access over MCP. 26% off your first year ($111) — code applies automatically, ends Dec 31.

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Probabilities come from a Monte Carlo bracket simulation driven by our team power ratings (PWR). STRONG ≥12pp · HIGH ≥8pp · MODERATE ≥5pp · LOW <5pp. Home-field advantage and PWR win-variance are heuristic defaults pending 2019–2024 backtest calibration — treat the tier as the conviction signal, not the raw pp. Full methodology →

The ratings that drive the bracket sim

Every championship probability above starts from PWR. All 32 teams ranked by points per game above average, with tier and movement — the why behind each price.

NFL championship markets — FAQ

How are NFL championship odds priced on prediction markets?

Each team gets a yes/no contract that settles at $1 if they win the title and $0 otherwise, so its price in cents is the market-implied probability of winning. Kalshi runs Super Bowl, conference (AFC/NFC) and division champion markets. Because there is no sportsbook vig, the prices across all teams sum close to 100% rather than the 130%+ a book would show.

What is the difference between conference and Super Bowl champion markets?

The conference market (AFC or NFC champion) settles when a team reaches the Super Bowl; the Super Bowl champion market settles only when a team wins it. A team is always at least as likely to win its conference as the title, so its conference price sits above its Super Bowl price — the gap is the implied probability of losing the Super Bowl after reaching it.

Can you trade NFL championship futures in your state?

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available to traders in all 50 states, so its NFL championship contracts are tradeable nationwide. You take a position on a team and it settles at $1 or $0 — a contract, not a wager against a house line.

NFL Futures Markets

How the title market moved

Every team’s Super Bowl, conference and playoff price on Sept 8 and Oct 8, in the first-quarter report. Read the report →