Gridiron Edge refreshes May 1 with 2026 season rosters
In the meantime, check the NFL Draft board — live Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings odds for every top pick.
NFL Championship Edges
Monte Carlo playoff + Super Bowl probabilities vs. Kalshi. Playoff, conference, Super Bowl.
Probabilities come from a Monte Carlo bracket simulation driven by Gridiron Edge Ratings. STRONG ≥12pp · HIGH ≥8pp · MODERATE ≥5pp · LOW <5pp. Home-field advantage and GER win-variance are heuristic defaults pending 2019–2024 backtest calibration — treat the tier as the conviction signal, not the raw pp. Full methodology →