NESuper BowlMODERATEYES
Our Prob
9.8%
Kalshi
4¢
DraftKings
5¢
Edge
+5.8pp
2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 1 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 1 game priced against the live prediction market.
Free through Week 1. The full board is open — no signup. From September 15 the top 8 rows stay free and the rest becomes part of Pro. Game edges at /nfl/edges stay free permanently. Contracts trade on Kalshi.
NFL Championship Edges — 2026
Board as of · prices live
Monte Carlo playoff + Super Bowl probabilities vs. Kalshi — with DraftKings’ implied price as a third column on the Super Bowl board. Playoff, conference, Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Winner (1)
NESuper BowlConference Champion (3)
NEConference ChampionHIGHYES
Our Prob
18.0%
Market
9¢
Edge
+9.0pp
SEAConference ChampionMODERATEYES
Our Prob
16.3%
Market
10¢
Edge
+6.3pp
KCConference ChampionMODERATENO
Our Prob
5.3%
Market
11¢
Edge
-5.7pp
Make Playoffs (18)
CLEMake PlayoffsSTRONGYES
Our Prob
35.8%
Market
11¢
Edge
+24.8pp
MIAMake PlayoffsSTRONGYES
Our Prob
22.7%
Market
5¢
Edge
+17.7pp
TENMake PlayoffsSTRONGYES
Our Prob
24.4%
Market
8¢
Edge
+16.4pp
NEMake PlayoffsSTRONGYES
Our Prob
74.8%
Market
62¢
Edge
+12.8pp
ARIMake PlayoffsSTRONGYES
Our Prob
17.5%
Market
5¢
Edge
+12.5pp
INDMake PlayoffsHIGHYES
Our Prob
46.7%
Market
35¢
Edge
+11.7pp
JAXMake PlayoffsMODERATEYES
Our Prob
57.3%
Market
50¢
Edge
+7.3pp
PITMake PlayoffsMODERATEYES
Our Prob
41.2%
Market
34¢
Edge
+7.2pp
SEAMake PlayoffsMODERATEYES
Our Prob
71.3%
Market
66¢
Edge
+5.3pp
DALMake PlayoffsMODERATENO
Our Prob
46.4%
Market
53¢
Edge
-6.6pp
PHIMake PlayoffsMODERATENO
Our Prob
54.9%
Market
62¢
Edge
-7.1pp
DETMake PlayoffsHIGHNO
Our Prob
57.9%
Market
66¢
Edge
-8.1pp
SFMake PlayoffsHIGHNO
Our Prob
44.1%
Market
53¢
Edge
-8.8pp
HOUMake PlayoffsHIGHNO
Our Prob
54.1%
Market
63¢
Edge
-8.9pp
KCMake PlayoffsSTRONGNO
Our Prob
43.1%
Market
58¢
Edge
-14.9pp
MINMake PlayoffsSTRONGNO
Our Prob
24.9%
Market
41¢
Edge
-16.1pp
CINMake PlayoffsSTRONGNO
Our Prob
44.9%
Market
64¢
Edge
-19.1pp
BALMake PlayoffsSTRONGNO
Our Prob
54.7%
Market
74¢
Edge
-19.3pp
Probabilities come from a Monte Carlo bracket simulation driven by our team power ratings (PWR). STRONG ≥12pp · HIGH ≥8pp · MODERATE ≥5pp · LOW <5pp. Home-field advantage and PWR win-variance are heuristic defaults pending 2019–2024 backtest calibration — treat the tier as the conviction signal, not the raw pp. Full methodology →
NFL championship markets — FAQ
How are NFL championship odds priced on prediction markets?
Each team gets a yes/no contract that settles at $1 if they win the title and $0 otherwise, so its price in cents is the market-implied probability of winning. Kalshi runs Super Bowl, conference (AFC/NFC) and division champion markets. Because there is no sportsbook vig, the prices across all teams sum close to 100% rather than the 130%+ a book would show.
What is the difference between conference and Super Bowl champion markets?
The conference market (AFC or NFC champion) settles when a team reaches the Super Bowl; the Super Bowl champion market settles only when a team wins it. A team is always at least as likely to win its conference as the title, so its conference price sits above its Super Bowl price — the gap is the implied probability of losing the Super Bowl after reaching it.
Can you trade NFL championship futures in your state?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available to traders in all 50 states, so its NFL championship contracts are tradeable nationwide. You take a position on a team and it settles at $1 or $0 — a contract, not a wager against a house line.
NFL Futures Markets
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale