NESuper BowlHIGHYES
Our Prob
15.5%
Market
4¢
Edge
+11.5pp
2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 1 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 1 game priced against the live prediction market.
NFL Championship Edges — 2026
Monte Carlo playoff + Super Bowl probabilities vs. Kalshi — with DraftKings’ implied price as a third column on the Super Bowl board. Playoff, conference, Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Winner (2)
NESuper Bowl
KCSuper BowlMODERATENO
Our Prob
0.9%
Market
6¢
Edge
-5.1pp
Conference Champion (4)
NEConference ChampionSTRONGYES
Our Prob
28.5%
Market
8¢
Edge
+20.5pp
SEAConference ChampionMODERATEYES
Our Prob
18.9%
Market
11¢
Edge
+7.9pp
JAXConference ChampionMODERATEYES
Our Prob
12.8%
Market
7¢
Edge
+5.8pp
KCConference ChampionHIGHNO
Our Prob
2.4%
Market
12¢
Edge
-9.6pp
Make Playoffs (9)
ATLMake PlayoffsSTRONGYES
Our Prob
48.3%
Market
31¢
Edge
+17.3pp
SEAMake PlayoffsSTRONGYES
Our Prob
84.8%
Market
70¢
Edge
+14.8pp
CLEMake PlayoffsHIGHYES
Our Prob
27.1%
Market
17¢
Edge
+10.1pp
DENMake PlayoffsMODERATEYES
Our Prob
63.8%
Market
56¢
Edge
+7.8pp
CARMake PlayoffsHIGHNO
Our Prob
19.9%
Market
30¢
Edge
-10.1pp
NOMake PlayoffsSTRONGNO
Our Prob
23.2%
Market
36¢
Edge
-12.8pp
LVMake PlayoffsSTRONGNO
Our Prob
4.5%
Market
19¢
Edge
-14.5pp
WASMake PlayoffsSTRONGNO
Our Prob
17.8%
Market
34¢
Edge
-16.2pp
MINMake PlayoffsSTRONGNO
Our Prob
11.2%
Market
39¢
Edge
-27.8pp
Probabilities come from a Monte Carlo bracket simulation driven by Gridiron Edge Ratings. STRONG ≥12pp · HIGH ≥8pp · MODERATE ≥5pp · LOW <5pp. Home-field advantage and GER win-variance are heuristic defaults pending 2019–2024 backtest calibration — treat the tier as the conviction signal, not the raw pp. Full methodology →
NFL championship markets — FAQ
How are NFL championship odds priced on prediction markets?
Each team gets a yes/no contract that settles at $1 if they win the title and $0 otherwise, so its price in cents is the market-implied probability of winning. Kalshi runs Super Bowl, conference (AFC/NFC) and division champion markets. Because there is no sportsbook vig, the prices across all teams sum close to 100% rather than the 130%+ a book would show.
What is the difference between conference and Super Bowl champion markets?
The conference market (AFC or NFC champion) settles when a team reaches the Super Bowl; the Super Bowl champion market settles only when a team wins it. A team is always at least as likely to win its conference as the title, so its conference price sits above its Super Bowl price — the gap is the implied probability of losing the Super Bowl after reaching it.
Can you trade NFL championship futures in your state?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available to traders in all 50 states, so its NFL championship contracts are tradeable nationwide. You take a position on a team and it settles at $1 or $0 — a contract, not a wager against a house line.
NFL Futures Markets
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale