NESuper BowlHIGHYES
Our Prob
11.6%
Market
3¢
Edge
+8.6pp
Gridiron Edge refreshes May 1 with 2026 season rosters
In the meantime, check the NFL Draft board — live Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings odds for every top pick.
NFL Championship Edges — 2026
Monte Carlo playoff + Super Bowl probabilities vs. Kalshi. Playoff, conference, Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Winner (2)
NESuper Bowl
JAXSuper BowlMODERATEYES
Our Prob
8.2%
Market
2¢
Edge
+6.2pp
Conference Champion (5)
NEConference ChampionHIGHYES
Our Prob
20.2%
Market
9¢
Edge
+11.2pp
JAXConference ChampionHIGHYES
Our Prob
15.4%
Market
7¢
Edge
+8.4pp
SEAConference ChampionMODERATEYES
Our Prob
21.3%
Market
14¢
Edge
+7.3pp
KCConference ChampionMODERATENO
Our Prob
6.2%
Market
13¢
Edge
-6.8pp
BALConference ChampionMODERATENO
Our Prob
5.1%
Market
12¢
Edge
-6.9pp
Make Playoffs (2)
CLEMake PlayoffsMODERATEYES
Our Prob
24.1%
Market
19¢
Edge
+5.1pp
LVMake PlayoffsMODERATENO
Our Prob
10.5%
Market
18¢
Edge
-7.5pp
Probabilities come from a Monte Carlo bracket simulation driven by Gridiron Edge Ratings. STRONG ≥12pp · HIGH ≥8pp · MODERATE ≥5pp · LOW <5pp. Home-field advantage and GER win-variance are heuristic defaults pending 2019–2024 backtest calibration — treat the tier as the conviction signal, not the raw pp. Full methodology →