New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions

Sunday, November 15, 2026 · Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Patriots

51%

model win prob

Lions

49%

model win prob

Model line

Patriots −0.5

Kalshi (Lions)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Patriots — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

New England Patriots+3.81stPlayoff

Detroit Lions+0.910thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 10, the New England Patriots travel to face the Detroit Lions at Ford Field, Detroit, MI. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Lions 10th of 32 (Average tier, +0.9) and the Patriots 1st (Playoff tier, +3.8). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Patriots by 0.5 — a 51% win probability for the Patriots.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 49% (Lions) / 51% (Patriots) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Patriots vs Lions — frequently asked

Who is favored in Patriots vs Lions in Week 10?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Patriots by 0.5 points and gives them a 51% win probability over the Lions. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Patriots vs Lions?

Home win probability 49% (Lions), away 51% (Patriots). That comes from a power-rating differential of -2.8 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Lions rate 10th of 32 (Average tier), the Patriots 1st (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Patriots vs Lions on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.