New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 15, 2026 · Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany (neutral site)
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Patriots by 2.5 in New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions, NFL Week 10 2026 — 58% to win, and a neutral-site game, so the model applies no home-field adjustment. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Lions at 37c or below (or Patriots at 53c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NE
+5.5
DET
+2.5
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Patriots
58%
model win prob
Lions
42%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
39%
Madden 27
61%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Lions at 37c or below, or the Patriots at 53c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Patriots at Lions
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lions −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lions −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lions −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lions −4.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 more rungsLions −6.5 → Lions −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
No home field: pricing Patriots–Lions on neutral ground
The schedule flags this one as a neutral-site game, which changes how the number is built. The model zeroes out the usual 2.5-point home adjustment, so the line is pure ratings: +2.5 for the Lions against +5.5 for the Patriots, giving the Patriots by 2.5 and 58% to win. The Lions are the designated home team on paper only. Take home field out and the ratings gap is all that is left — which is why this number is a full 2.5 points different from what the same matchup would price at in Detroit.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +4.0 (4th of 32) against a Lions defense at +0.7 (6th) — 3.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Lions offense (+1.3, 10th) meets the Patriots defense (+1.3, 5th), a 0.1-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Lions +0.6 (11th of 32) to +0.2 (27th).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Lions at 9.8 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Patriots at 10.9 (favored in 15) — 1.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 3rd-hardest game on the Lions' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the Patriots'.
One team has owned this series: the Patriots are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Patriots won 29-0 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Lions are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Patriots at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 42% / 58% — the tradable window is narrow: Lions at 37c or below, Patriots at 53c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Patriots vs Lions on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET
- Market-implied (Lions)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Lions)
- 42%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Lions at 37c or below, or the Patriots at 53c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Patriots vs Lions trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Lions | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Patriots vs Lions — frequently asked
Who is favored in Patriots vs Lions in Week 10?
Our power-rating model picks the Patriots by 2.5 points, a 58% win probability over the Lions, for a projected score of Patriots 25, Lions 22 on a ratings-implied 47.3-point total. The Lions rate 7th of 32 (+2.5) and the Patriots 1st (+5.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Is there a home-field advantage in this game?
No. The schedule flags it as a neutral-site game, so the model applies zero home-field points instead of the usual 2.5. The Lions are the designated home team for scheduling purposes only. The resulting line — Patriots by 2.5 — is the raw ratings gap between +2.5 and +5.5.
How do you take a position on Patriots vs Lions?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Lions at 37c or below, or the Patriots at 53c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Where do the Lions and Patriots play this game?
New England Patriots and the Detroit Lions meet at Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany on Sunday, November 15, 2026, NFL Week 10. The Lions are the designated home team, so the game does not carry home-field advantage in our model.
What does the model project for the Lions and Patriots this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Lions at 9.8 wins (favored in 13) and the Patriots at 10.9 (favored in 15). This game ranks 3rd-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Patriots', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Patriots vs Lions?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Lions at 37c or below or the Patriots at 53c or below, off a 2.5-point line.
Can you trade Patriots vs Lions on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 10 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 58% on a team like the Patriots?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Patriots at 58% over the Lions sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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