Patriots vs Lions Prediction β Week 10, Sun Nov 15
Updated Β· model ratings
Sunday, November 15, 2026 Β· Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany (neutral site)
- Last week: Patriots play Sun 4:25 PM ET vs Packers β preview
- Last week: Lions play Sun 1:00 PM ET at Dolphins β preview
Quick Answer
As of October 30, 2026, PredictionMarketsPicks' model favors the Lions by 1 in New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions, NFL Week 10 2026 β 53% to win, and a neutral-site game, so the model applies no home-field adjustment. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Lions at 51c or below (or Patriots at 45c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NE
+3.0
DET
+0.6
Kalshi hasn't priced this game yet. Get the full Week 10 card free and you'll have our number in hand the morning it opens.
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Patriots
47%
fair value (books)
Lions
53%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself β Full PWR board for all 32 β Player prop gaps for this game β Whose number this is β
39%
Madden 27
61%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Lions at 51c or below, or the Patriots at 45c or below β a 2-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β
The Ladder β Patriots at Lions How to read the Ladder β
All ladders βOur margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30β70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0β100Β’
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) Β· hollow = outside the 30β70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; βpaysβ is 100Β’ Γ· cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright β a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Patriots vs Lions power ratings (Week 10) What PWR measures β
Patriots and Lions season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings β real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works β
Patriots vs Lions β player pages
All players βJahmyr Gibbs
RB
A.J. Brown
WR
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
TreVeyon Henderson
RB
Jameson Williams
WR
Drake Maye
QB
Sam LaPorta
TE
Jared Goff
QB
Hunter Henry
TE
Isaac TeSlaa
WR
DeMario Douglas
Eli Raridon
Sione Vaki
RB
Brock Wright
DET Lions D/ST
Jacob Saylors
Corey Kiner
Efton Chism III
Kyle Williams
NE Patriots D/ST
One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
No home field: pricing PatriotsβLions on neutral ground
The schedule flags this one as a neutral-site game, which changes how the number is built. The model zeroes out the usual 2.5-point home adjustment, so the line is pure ratings: +0.6 for the Lions against +3.0 for the Patriots, giving the Patriots by 2.5 and 57% to win. The Lions are the designated home team on paper only. Take home field out and the ratings gap is all that is left β which is why this number is a full 2.5 points different from what the same matchup would price at in Detroit.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +3.0 (4th of 32) against a Lions defense at -2.0 (24th) β 5.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Lions offense (+2.1, 9th) meets the Patriots defense (-0.3, 12th), a 2.3-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.6 projected wins for the Lions against 10.1 for the Patriots, favored in 9 and 13 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 5th-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Patriots'.
One team has owned this series: the Patriots are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Patriots won 29-0 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Lions are 1-3. Worth saying plainly β the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Patriots at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here β 53% / 47% β the tradable window is narrow: Lions at 51c or below, Patriots at 45c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks β you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Patriots vs Lions on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET
- Market-implied (Lions)
- not listed yet
- Fair value β books (Lions)
- 53%
- Fair value vs market
- β
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Lions at 51c or below, or the Patriots at 45c or below β a 2-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Patriots vs Lions line history
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 8, had the Patriots β1.5 (FanDuel). The median across 4 books now is the Lions β0.5.
| Book | Earliest line we archived | Now | Spread trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Lions β1.5 Β· O/U 48.5Sep 8 | Lions β1.5 Β· O/U 48.5 | |
| FanDuel | Patriots β1.5 Β· O/U 49.5Sep 8 | Patriots β1.5 Β· O/U 49.5 | |
| Caesars | pick'em Β· O/U 48.5Sep 8 | pick'em Β· O/U 48.5 | |
| ESPN BET | Lions β2 Β· O/U 48.5Sep 8 | Lions β2 Β· O/U 48.5 |
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. βEarliest line we archivedβ is our first capture, which is not necessarily the marketβs open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchangeβs own moneyline contract.
Where Patriots vs Lions trades Why the venues differ β
Each venueβs own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Lions | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet β opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi β |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig β $50 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer β |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game β US exchange | Sign-up offer β |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood β |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase β |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
A price under a venue name is that venueβs own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Watch the breakdown: Patriots vs Lions
Patriots vs Lions β frequently asked
Who will win Lions vs Patriots?
The market line has the Lions at 53% to beat the Patriots in Week 10.
Who is favored in Patriots vs Lions in Week 10?
The market line has the Lions by 1 points, a 53% win probability over the Patriots (our model's own line: Patriots by 2.5). The Lions rate 13th of 32 (+0.6) and the Patriots 4th (+3.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Is there a home-field advantage in this game?
No. The schedule flags it as a neutral-site game, so the model applies zero home-field points instead of the usual 2.5. The Lions are the designated home team for scheduling purposes only. The resulting line β Patriots by 2.5 β is the raw ratings gap between +0.6 and +3.0.
How do you take a position on Patriots vs Lions?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Lions at 51c or below, or the Patriots at 45c or below. There is no point spread β you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Where do the Lions and Patriots play this game?
New England Patriots and the Detroit Lions meet at Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany on Sunday, November 15, 2026, NFL Week 10. The Lions are the designated home team, so the game does not carry home-field advantage in our model.
What does the model project for the Lions and Patriots this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Lions at 9.6 wins (favored in 9) and the Patriots at 10.1 (favored in 13). This game ranks 5th-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Patriots', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Patriots vs Lions?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game β anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Lions at 51c or below or the Patriots at 45c or below, off a 2.5-point line.
Can you trade Patriots vs Lions on Kalshi?
Yes β as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 10 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV15NEDET. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Patriots?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 β trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input β the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Patriots at 57% over the Lions sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if Patriots vs Lions ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
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