San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants
Sunday, December 6, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Giants by 0.5 in San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants, NFL Week 13 2026 — 52% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 1.8 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06SFNYG yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Giants at 47c or below (or 49ers at 43c or below) is where the model would take a position.
SF
+0.8
NYG
-1.0
49ers
48%
model win prob
Giants
52%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC06SFNYGhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Giants at 47c or below, or the 49ers at 43c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
49ers–Giants is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The 49ers rate +0.8 (14th of 32) against -1.0 for the Giants (22nd) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.8-point gap between them, so the model lands at 52% for the Giants anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 3rd-closest of the 14 games in Week 13, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Giants at 7.7 wins (favored in 6 of 17) and the 49ers at 8.8 (favored in 8) — 1.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 12th-hardest game on the Giants' schedule and the 9th-hardest on the 49ers'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the 49ers offense grades +2.9 (6th of 32) against a Giants defense at -2.1 (26th) — 5.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Giants offense (+1.0, 12th) meets the 49ers defense (-2.9, 31st), a 3.9-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the 49ers grade +0.9, 4th in the league, against +0.1 (29th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Recent history, for context only: 13 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-6 in the 49ers' favour, plus 8 playoff games. They last met in 2025: 49ers won 34-24 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Giants are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
On conditions: New York home games in December have run a median 39°F and 5 mph of wind across 13 games since 2015, with 62% at or below 40°F and a low of 16°F. Our model has no weather term, so treat that as an input it has not priced.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Giants at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC06SFNYG is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 52% / 48% — the tradable window is narrow: Giants at 47c or below, 49ers at 43c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
49ers vs Giants — frequently asked
Who is favored in 49ers vs Giants in Week 13?
Our power-rating model favors the Giants by 0.5 points, a 52% win probability over the 49ers. The Giants rate 22nd of 32 (-1.0) and the 49ers 14th (+0.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06SFNYG yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Giants (-1.0, 22nd) and 49ers (+0.8, 14th) are only 1.8 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 52%/48%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on 49ers vs Giants?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC06SFNYG on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Giants at 47c or below, or the 49ers at 43c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Giants host the 49ers?
San Francisco 49ers visit the New York Giants on Sunday, December 6, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 13, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Giants and 49ers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Giants at 7.7 wins (favored in 6) and the 49ers at 8.8 (favored in 8). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Giants' schedule and 9th-hardest on the 49ers', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Giants?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Giants at 52% over the 49ers sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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