Kalshi Probability Converter
Convert Kalshi prices to implied probabilities, decimal odds, and American odds. Understand what any Kalshi price really means before you trade.
Quick Answer
this converter turns a Kalshi price into its implied probability, decimal odds, and American odds in one step. Kalshi prices are already probabilities in cents — a 65¢ contract is a 65% implied probability, or 1.54 in decimal odds — so it just restates the same number in whichever format you need.
MUST-KNOW FIRST
Kalshi prices in plain English · Free
What is this?
On Kalshi, every market trades in cents. A market priced at 37¢ means the crowd thinks there's a 37% chance the event happens. That's it. This tool converts back and forth so you don't have to do the math.
Think of it like reading a weather forecast. "30% chance of rain" = 30¢ on the rain market. If you think rain is actually 60% likely, that 30¢ market is underpriced — that's your edge.
Real-World Example
→ The Market Says
Kalshi has "Fed cuts rates in June" trading at 42¢. You plug that into the Probability Converter. It tells you the market implies a 42% probability.
You watch the Fed press conference and hear Powell hint strongly at cuts. You think it's actually 65%. The gap between 42% and 65% is your edge window.
✅Action: Buy YES at 42¢. You think it's worth 65¢. That's 23 cents of potential profit per contract.
Bottom line: Learn this one first. Every other tool builds on it.
Full guide →0–100, where 65¢ = 65%
European format (1.00 = no payout)
Negative = favorite, positive = underdog
Implied Probability
65.0%
Market's implied chance
Fair Value Est.
65.0%
After estimated vig removal
Est. Vig / Juice
~2.5%
Platform's edge estimate
Kalshi Cents to American Odds: Full Conversion Table
Every Kalshi price from 1¢ to 99¢ with its implied probability, decimal odds, and American moneyline equivalent. A Kalshi price in cents is its implied probability — 65¢ is a 65% chance — so the only real work is restating that number in decimal or American format. Find your price in the left column.
| Kalshi Price | Implied Probability | Decimal Odds | American Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ | 1% | 100.00 | +9900 |
| 2¢ | 2% | 50.00 | +4900 |
| 3¢ | 3% | 33.33 | +3233 |
| 4¢ | 4% | 25.00 | +2400 |
| 5¢ | 5% | 20.00 | +1900 |
| 6¢ | 6% | 16.67 | +1567 |
| 7¢ | 7% | 14.29 | +1329 |
| 8¢ | 8% | 12.50 | +1150 |
| 9¢ | 9% | 11.11 | +1011 |
| 10¢ | 10% | 10.00 | +900 |
| 11¢ | 11% | 9.09 | +809 |
| 12¢ | 12% | 8.33 | +733 |
| 13¢ | 13% | 7.69 | +669 |
| 14¢ | 14% | 7.14 | +614 |
| 15¢ | 15% | 6.67 | +567 |
| 16¢ | 16% | 6.25 | +525 |
| 17¢ | 17% | 5.88 | +488 |
| 18¢ | 18% | 5.56 | +456 |
| 19¢ | 19% | 5.26 | +426 |
| 20¢ | 20% | 5.00 | +400 |
| 21¢ | 21% | 4.76 | +376 |
| 22¢ | 22% | 4.55 | +355 |
| 23¢ | 23% | 4.35 | +335 |
| 24¢ | 24% | 4.17 | +317 |
| 25¢ | 25% | 4.00 | +300 |
| 26¢ | 26% | 3.85 | +285 |
| 27¢ | 27% | 3.70 | +270 |
| 28¢ | 28% | 3.57 | +257 |
| 29¢ | 29% | 3.45 | +245 |
| 30¢ | 30% | 3.33 | +233 |
| 31¢ | 31% | 3.23 | +223 |
| 32¢ | 32% | 3.13 | +212 |
| 33¢ | 33% | 3.03 | +203 |
| 34¢ | 34% | 2.94 | +194 |
| 35¢ | 35% | 2.86 | +186 |
| 36¢ | 36% | 2.78 | +178 |
| 37¢ | 37% | 2.70 | +170 |
| 38¢ | 38% | 2.63 | +163 |
| 39¢ | 39% | 2.56 | +156 |
| 40¢ | 40% | 2.50 | +150 |
| 41¢ | 41% | 2.44 | +144 |
| 42¢ | 42% | 2.38 | +138 |
| 43¢ | 43% | 2.33 | +133 |
| 44¢ | 44% | 2.27 | +127 |
| 45¢ | 45% | 2.22 | +122 |
| 46¢ | 46% | 2.17 | +117 |
| 47¢ | 47% | 2.13 | +113 |
| 48¢ | 48% | 2.08 | +108 |
| 49¢ | 49% | 2.04 | +104 |
| 50¢ | 50% | 2.00 | +100 / −100 |
| 51¢ | 51% | 1.96 | −104 |
| 52¢ | 52% | 1.92 | −108 |
| 53¢ | 53% | 1.89 | −113 |
| 54¢ | 54% | 1.85 | −117 |
| 55¢ | 55% | 1.82 | −122 |
| 56¢ | 56% | 1.79 | −127 |
| 57¢ | 57% | 1.75 | −133 |
| 58¢ | 58% | 1.72 | −138 |
| 59¢ | 59% | 1.69 | −144 |
| 60¢ | 60% | 1.67 | −150 |
| 61¢ | 61% | 1.64 | −156 |
| 62¢ | 62% | 1.61 | −163 |
| 63¢ | 63% | 1.59 | −170 |
| 64¢ | 64% | 1.56 | −178 |
| 65¢ | 65% | 1.54 | −186 |
| 66¢ | 66% | 1.52 | −194 |
| 67¢ | 67% | 1.49 | −203 |
| 68¢ | 68% | 1.47 | −213 |
| 69¢ | 69% | 1.45 | −223 |
| 70¢ | 70% | 1.43 | −233 |
| 71¢ | 71% | 1.41 | −245 |
| 72¢ | 72% | 1.39 | −257 |
| 73¢ | 73% | 1.37 | −270 |
| 74¢ | 74% | 1.35 | −285 |
| 75¢ | 75% | 1.33 | −300 |
| 76¢ | 76% | 1.32 | −317 |
| 77¢ | 77% | 1.30 | −335 |
| 78¢ | 78% | 1.28 | −355 |
| 79¢ | 79% | 1.27 | −376 |
| 80¢ | 80% | 1.25 | −400 |
| 81¢ | 81% | 1.23 | −426 |
| 82¢ | 82% | 1.22 | −456 |
| 83¢ | 83% | 1.20 | −488 |
| 84¢ | 84% | 1.19 | −525 |
| 85¢ | 85% | 1.18 | −567 |
| 86¢ | 86% | 1.16 | −614 |
| 87¢ | 87% | 1.15 | −669 |
| 88¢ | 88% | 1.14 | −733 |
| 89¢ | 89% | 1.12 | −809 |
| 90¢ | 90% | 1.11 | −900 |
| 91¢ | 91% | 1.10 | −1011 |
| 92¢ | 92% | 1.09 | −1150 |
| 93¢ | 93% | 1.08 | −1329 |
| 94¢ | 94% | 1.06 | −1567 |
| 95¢ | 95% | 1.05 | −1900 |
| 96¢ | 96% | 1.04 | −2400 |
| 97¢ | 97% | 1.03 | −3233 |
| 98¢ | 98% | 1.02 | −4900 |
| 99¢ | 99% | 1.01 | −9900 |
These are raw conversions with no vig removed. When YES and NO prices sum above $1.00, the true implied probability of YES is YES ÷ (YES + NO) — at 52¢ YES and 51¢ NO, that is 52 ÷ 103, or about 50.5%, not 52%.
How to Read Kalshi Prices
Kalshi uses a simple cent-based pricing system that directly encodes probability. A contract trading at 65¢ means the market collectively believes there is a 65% implied probability of that event occurring. If it does, the contract settles at $1.00, returning 35¢ profit. If it does not, the contract expires worthless and you lose your 65¢ stake. This linear pricing model makes Kalshi far easier to reason about than traditional sportsbooks, where the relationship between price and probability is obscured by vig-heavy American or decimal formats.
The connection to decimal odds and American odds becomes relevant when comparing Kalshi to traditional sports betting markets or international prediction platforms. A 65¢ Kalshi price is equivalent to decimal odds of 1.538 — meaning you multiply your stake by 1.538 to get the total return. In American odds format, this is roughly -186, indicating a fairly heavy favorite. Cross-referencing across formats lets you spot pricing discrepancies between Kalshi and sports books — a core edge for sharp traders.
Understanding vig and fair value is the difference between recreational and professional prediction market trading. Every market embeds a small platform fee into the bid/ask spread. When you buy a YES contract for 65¢ and the true fair probability is 67%, Kalshi captures that 2¢ difference as revenue. This tool estimates the vig baked into any Kalshi price so you can compare the market price to what a fair, devigged probability would look like — helping you identify whether you're getting value or overpaying for implied probability.
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every edge the engines find, the moment they find it
Pro opens every engine on the site — the cross-market arb scanner, the Mispricing Scanner, Thee Oracle, and the silver, gold, oil and bitcoin edge models that price commodity contracts in real time.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I convert a Kalshi price to a probability?
Kalshi prices are already implied probabilities expressed in cents. A contract trading at 65¢ represents a 65% implied probability. To convert to decimal odds, divide 1 by the probability (1 / 0.65 = 1.538). To convert to American odds for a favorite, use -(probability / (1 - probability)) × 100.
How do I read Kalshi prices compared to American sportsbook odds?
A Kalshi price of 65¢ is equivalent to approximately -186 in American odds. A Kalshi price of 40¢ is equivalent to +150. The converter handles this automatically — enter the Kalshi price in cents and get the American odds, decimal odds, and devigged fair probability instantly.
When should I use the Probability Converter before trading on Kalshi?
Use it whenever you want to compare a Kalshi market to a traditional sportsbook price, or when you want to understand the true fair probability after removing the platform vig. It is especially useful for sports prediction markets where you have a reference price from DraftKings or FanDuel to compare against.
What does 60 cents mean on a Kalshi market?
A Kalshi contract trading at 60 cents means the market is collectively pricing a 60% probability that the YES outcome resolves true. Buying the contract for 60 cents pays $1.00 if YES resolves — a 40-cent profit per contract, or about 67% return on the position. If NO resolves, the buyer loses the full 60 cents. Cents and probability are interchangeable on Kalshi by design.
How do I calculate implied probability from a prediction market price?
On Kalshi-style exchanges, implied probability equals the price itself: a 42-cent contract implies 42% probability. The only adjustment to make is for vig — when YES and NO prices sum above $1.00, true implied probability of YES is YES_price / (YES_price + NO_price). At 52¢ YES and 51¢ NO, true implied probability of YES is 52 / 103, which is roughly 50.5%, not 52%.
Are prediction market prices more accurate than polls or analyst forecasts?
Prediction markets beat polls on average across roughly 60% of recent forecast competitions, but the accuracy edge varies sharply by market type. Real-money markets with deep liquidity — Fed rate decisions, elections, major economic releases — calibrate well. Thin markets on niche events are noisy and often dominated by a few participants. Treat implied probability as a strong prior, not gospel.
Want the ladder on paper? Printable PDF of the full 1–99¢ table plus the devig cheat sheet — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Use the Probability Converter inside your AI agent
This tool is also live on our MCP server as convert_probability. Connect Claude, ChatGPT, Cursor, or Copilot and call it directly — six core calculators are free.