Kalshi Probability Converter

Kalshi uses a simple cent-based pricing system that directly encodes probability. A contract trading at 65¢ means the market collectively believes there is a 65% implied probability of that event occurring. If it does, the contract settles at $1.00, returning 35¢ profit. If it does not, the contract expires worthless and you lose your 65¢ stake. This linear pricing model makes Kalshi far easier to reason about than traditional sportsbooks, where the relationship between price and probability is obscured by vig-heavy American or decimal formats.

The connection to decimal odds and American odds becomes relevant when comparing Kalshi to traditional sports betting markets or international prediction platforms. A 65¢ Kalshi price is equivalent to decimal odds of 1.538 — meaning you multiply your stake by 1.538 to get the total return. In American odds format, this is roughly -186, indicating a fairly heavy favorite. Cross-referencing across formats lets you spot pricing discrepancies between Kalshi and sports books — a core edge for sharp bettors.

Understanding vig and fair value is the difference between recreational and professional prediction market trading. Every market embeds a small platform fee into the bid/ask spread. When you buy a YES contract for 65¢ and the true fair probability is 67%, Kalshi captures that 2¢ difference as revenue. This tool estimates the vig baked into any Kalshi price so you can compare the market price to what a fair, devigged probability would look like — helping you identify whether you're getting value or overpaying for implied probability.