Updated · market price
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, September 13, 2026): Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 — NFL Week 1, 2026. Our pre-game model had the Chargers by 5.5 (66% to win); the Cardinals won, so that call missed. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14Final
Model call: MISSOur pre-game model had the Chargers by 5.5 (66% to win). The Cardinals won — that call missed.
Closing-line value on the Chargers: -2c — we archived the Chargers at 83c on Sep 7; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 81c on Sep 12. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
1 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 15.5pp on Chargers moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Los Angeles opened as an eleven-and-a-half-point favorite and closed at eight and a half — three points of movement toward Arizona, and the largest absolute repricing of any Week 1 game. Arizona then won by twelve, holding the ball for 37:31 and kicking four field goals. We had no position on it.
Cardinals 26—Chargers 14
Final✗ Call missedThis is a model miss with no position attached and it is the most uncomfortable entry in the week for a different reason. Our stored probability had Los Angeles at 65.5%, and Arizona won outright, so the chip reads miss. But the wider story is that the market spent the week walking three points toward the team we had as a two-to-one underdog, and we never engaged. There is no nfl_weekly_edges row for this game, which means the disagreement between our 65.5% and the Kalshi price never cleared publication — so the biggest line move on the slate, in the direction of the team that won, produced no content and no position from us at all. The prop board did engage, and engaged well: it carried three Jacoby Brissett OVERs from run 2026w01-20260912T222210Z-121a58, including a HIGH on 224.5 passing yards and a MODERATE on 0.5 passing touchdowns. He threw for 277 with a score. Two of those three are pass_yds, the suppressed stat the board never shows, so the only one a reader could actually have seen is the touchdown call — which is exactly the gap the handoff asks you to close. A correct call nobody can see is not a record.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total rose 2 to 47.5; the game landed on 40.
Q4
Arizona held the ball for 37:31 to Los Angeles’s 22:29 and converted six of fourteen third downs while the Chargers went two of eight and zero for three on fourth down. Arizona ran seventy-one plays to 51 and out-gained Los Angeles by 125 yards without turning it over once.
Q4
Ryland made from twenty-seven, forty-four, thirty-four and forty-nine, missing one of five. In a game Arizona won by twelve, the kicker outscored the entire Chargers passing offense’s touchdown output twice over. The forty-four came as the first half expired and the forty-nine iced it with 2:33 left.
Q4
Brissett went twenty-seven of thirty-seven for 277 and a 103.1 rating, hit on thirteen targets to McBride, and threw the three-yard touchdown that made it 23-14 with 11:44 to play. McBride caught nine for ninety-five. Kendrick Bourne caught all eight of his targets.
Q3
Herbert went seventeen of twenty-seven for 209 with a touchdown to Ladd McConkey and an interception to Wingard, taking three sacks for twenty-two yards. Omarion Hampton lost a fumble. Los Angeles scored seven in the first, none in the second, seven in the third and none in the fourth.
Reporting verified 2026-09-13. Further sources: ESPN box score — Cardinals at Chargers · ESPN game page — Cardinals at Chargers · ESPN — Week 1 highlights: best plays, moments, touchdowns
Kyler Murray is not walking through that door — Arizona released him in March and he is Minnesota's starter now. Jacoby Brissett gets a first-year head coach, a shorthanded offensive line and a Chargers front that just got two stars back healthy at the same time. The board above already carries three Attack rows on this game; the trenches are the reason the gap is as wide as it is.
Cardinals QB
Arizona released Murray on March 11 and he signed with Minnesota, where he starts Week 1. Brissett — a veteran journeyman rather than a top-tier arm — inherits a rebuilding roster under first-year head coach Mike LaFleur, with Gardner Minshew signed behind him. Every read below starts from that ceiling.
Cardinals offensive line · Chargers pass rush
Right guard Isaiah Adams was ruled out Friday with a knee injury, pushing Jon Gaines II into the lineup. Across from him: Khalil Mack, cleared from the report after a rest day, and Tuli Tuipulotu, questionable with a hip after three limited practices. Yardbarker frames this pairing as the headline trench matchup of the game, and Arizona is the side that got thinner during the week.
Chargers offensive line · Cardinals defensive line
Slater is back after missing since January 2025 with a torn patellar tendon, and this is the first time he and Alt have been healthy at the same time. Arizona's front lost longtime anchor Calais Campbell in free agency, and only a handful of returning defenders graded even respectably last season, none of them at an elite level.
Cardinals edge
Sweat put up a dozen sacks last season and is the one piece of Arizona's front seven who can win his matchup regardless of what happens elsewhere on the line. He took a rest and knee-maintenance day during the week and is active — not a genuine injury concern.
Source: Arizona Sports — Cardinals vs Chargers injury report
Chargers run offense · Cardinals run defense
Arizona fielded one of the worst run defenses in the league last season and then lost defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson to the Chargers themselves in free agency — he is on the other sideline Sunday. Hampton, in his second year, is projected to bounce runs outside behind Slater and Alt against a front that has not replaced him.
Cardinals secondary · Chargers pass offense
Cornerback Garrett Williams (Achilles) and safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (ribs) are both ruled out, thinning a secondary that has to handle new offensive coordinator McDaniel's scheme in its first live game — with Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and free-agent tight end David Njoku as the targets.
Source: Arizona Sports — Cardinals vs Chargers injury report
Cardinals passing weapons · Chargers safety
McBride is coming off a monster reception season and Harrison Jr. is Arizona's clear top receiver, but they are throwing into a defense anchored by James — widely regarded as one of the best safeties in the league — behind a Brissett-led offense that has to hold up in protection first.
Source: Chargers.com — Derwin James in ESPN's safety rankings
Reporting verified 2026-09-11. Further sources: SI — Jeremiyah Love headlines final Cardinals vs Chargers injury report · AZCardinals.com — Week 1 injury report at Chargers · SI — projecting the Cardinals' Week 1 starting lineup · Chargers.com — 2026 depth chart · PFF — Arizona Cardinals 2026 preview · Arizona Sports — Cardinals vs Chargers injury report
ARI
-3.7
LAC
-0.6
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 1 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Cardinals
34%
model win prob
Chargers
66%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
39%
Madden 27
61%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chargers −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chargers −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chargers −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chargers −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chargers −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chargers −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chargers −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chargers −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chargers −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Chargers −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Week 1 is the widest-error week of the season for every model, ours included — nothing about 2026 is on tape yet, and the ratings are priors, not measurements. With that stated plainly: the Chargers rate -0.6 (19th), the Cardinals -3.7 (30th), and the model opens on the Chargers by 5.5, 66% to win. Every number on this page will move more between now and kickoff than it will in any week that follows.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Chargers at 8.1 wins (favored in 8 of 17) and the Cardinals at 6.5 (favored in 3) — 1.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Chargers' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Cardinals'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Chargers offense grades -0.9 (24th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -2.9 (30th) — 2.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.7, 22nd) meets the Chargers defense (-0.1, 10th), a 0.6-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Chargers +0.4 (18th of 32) to -0.1 (30th).
One team has owned this series: the Chargers are 5-2 in 7 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Cardinals won 17-15 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Chargers are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 66% on the Chargers here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ARILAC contract implies 50% for the Chargers against our 66% — a 15.5-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Chargers as the value side.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game model number was 66% for the Chargers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Chargers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50% 50c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 71% 71c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 — final, played Sunday, September 13, 2026; our pre-game model had the Chargers by 5.5 (66% to win), and the Cardinals won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff our power-rating model favored the Chargers by 5.5 points, a 66% win probability over the Cardinals. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ARILAC market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Less reliable than any other week, and we would rather say so. The -0.6 / -3.7 ratings behind the 5.5-point line are preseason priors built from prior-season performance and roster change — no 2026 snaps are in them. Week 1 is the point of maximum uncertainty for the model and for the market, which is also why prices move most in it.
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ARILAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Chargers YES is quoted around 50c against our 66% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Arizona Cardinals visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chargers at 8.1 wins (favored in 8) and the Cardinals at 6.5 (favored in 3). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Chargers' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Cardinals', by model win probability.
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ARILAC. The Chargers YES contract sits around 50c, which is an implied 50% — against our model's 66%. That is a 15.5pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
This game has been played, so the Week 1 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ARILAC has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Chargers at 66% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 5.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 66% against a market price implying 50%, an edge of +15.5 points. Model 66% vs market 50% on LAC. We rate it attack, sized at 7.8% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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