Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Quick Answer
As of September 7, 2026, Kalshi implies 83% for the Chargers in Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers, NFL Week 1 2026, while our model has the Chargers by 5.5 (66% to win) — a 17.0pp gap. Value side: the Cardinals.
Kickoff board
Week 1 · 2026-09-072 actionable markets of 2 priced — largest edge 22.1pp on Justin Herbert UNDER 1.5 Pass TDs.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
ARI
-3.7
LAC
-0.6
Cardinals
34%
model win prob
Chargers
66%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
39%
Madden 27
61%
Madden 27
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Power-rating comparison
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Cardinals vs Chargers player props
Our projection against the live Kalshi contract. Every prop is an “X or more” contract that pays $1 if the player gets there, so the price of the side we call, in cents,is the market’s implied probability — the edge is the gap between that and ours, in percentage points. Closest strike to our projection first.
| Player | Contract | Call | Our odds | Mkt | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin HerbertQB | 2+ pass TDsover 1.5 | NO | 57% | 35¢ | +21.6 pp | STRONG |
Cardinals vs Chargers: where the prop prices are
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — the Oracle calls above are the opinion.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 50+ rec yds | 46.5¢ | 50% | -3.0¢ | over · Kalshi 51.8¢under · DK 53.3¢ |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1+ pass TDs | 69.5¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2+ pass TDs | 35.5¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3+ pass TDs | 12.5¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4+ pass TDs | 3.5¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
| Jacoby Brissett | 300+ pass yds | 13.0¢ | off-ladder | — | over · Kalshi 14.8¢ |
| Jacoby Brissett | 350+ pass yds | 5.5¢ | off-ladder | — | over · Kalshi 6.4¢ |
| Justin Herbert | 1+ pass TDs | 87.0¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
See all 39 priced prop strikes for this game on the board →+ 76 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
Reading the Week 1 line on Cardinals–Chargers
Week 1 is the widest-error week of the season for every model, ours included — nothing about 2026 is on tape yet, and the ratings are priors, not measurements. With that stated plainly: the Chargers rate -0.6 (19th), the Cardinals -3.7 (30th), and the model opens on the Chargers by 5.5, 66% to win. Every number on this page will move more between now and kickoff than it will in any week that follows.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Chargers at 8.1 wins (favored in 8 of 17) and the Cardinals at 6.5 (favored in 3) — 1.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Chargers' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Cardinals'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Chargers offense grades -0.9 (24th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -2.9 (30th) — 2.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.7, 22nd) meets the Chargers defense (-0.1, 10th), a 0.6-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Chargers +0.4 (18th of 32) to -0.1 (30th).
One team has owned this series: the Chargers are 5-2 in 7 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Cardinals won 17-15 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Chargers are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 66% on the Chargers here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ARILAC contract implies 83% for the Chargers against our 66% — a 17.0-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Cardinals as the value side at 19c.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Cardinals vs Chargers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ARILAC
- Market-implied (Chargers)
- 83c · 83%
- Our model (Chargers)
- 66%
- Model vs market
- -17.0pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ARILAC. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 83c on the Chargers is an implied 83% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 66%, a 17.0pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Cardinals vs Chargers trades
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Chargers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 83% 83c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 82% 82c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 83% 83c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 83% 83c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Cardinals vs Chargers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Cardinals vs Chargers in Week 1?
Our power-rating model favors the Chargers by 5.5 points, a 66% win probability over the Cardinals. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ARILAC market implies 83% for the Chargers — a 17.0pp gap versus the model.
How reliable is a Week 1 model line?
Less reliable than any other week, and we would rather say so. The -0.6 / -3.7 ratings behind the 5.5-point line are preseason priors built from prior-season performance and roster change — no 2026 snaps are in them. Week 1 is the point of maximum uncertainty for the model and for the market, which is also why prices move most in it.
How do you take a position on Cardinals vs Chargers?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ARILAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Chargers YES is quoted around 83c against our 66% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Chargers host the Cardinals?
Arizona Cardinals visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.
What does the model project for the Chargers and Cardinals this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chargers at 8.1 wins (favored in 8) and the Cardinals at 6.5 (favored in 3). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Chargers' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Cardinals', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Cardinals vs Chargers?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ARILAC. The Chargers YES contract sits around 83c, which is an implied 83% — against our model's 66%. That is a 17.0pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Cardinals vs Chargers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 1 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ARILAC. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 66% on a team like the Chargers?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Chargers at 66% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 5.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Is Justin Herbert UNDER 1.5 Pass TDs worth a position?
Our model puts it at 57% against a market price implying 35%, an edge of +22.1 points. Projection implies 57% on the under; the line prices 35%. We rate it attack, sized at 8.5% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
Is Cardinals moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 35% against a market price implying 18%, an edge of +17.0 points. Model 34% vs market 18% on ARI. We rate it attack, sized at 5.1% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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