Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 25, 2026): Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 — NFL Week 7, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Vikings by 6.5 (72% to win); the Vikings won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Vikings at 75c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Vikings by 6.5 (72% to win). The Vikings won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Vikings: +8c — we archived the Vikings at 67c on Oct 18; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 75c on Oct 25. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.
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No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Indianapolis led for more than three quarters on Jonathan Taylor’s 38-yard touchdown run and lost with 218 yards of offense. Minnesota sacked Daniel Jones four times for 44 yards and held him to 108 passing yards, and the Vikings’ only touchdown came after Spencer Shrader missed a 56-yard try on fourth-and-2: Kyler Murray ran 35 yards and threw 5 to T.J. Hockenson. Reichard, whose 59-yard attempt had been blocked, made a 52-yarder with 1:39 left, and Smith intercepted Jones to end it. DraftKings opened Minnesota a 3-point favorite and closed it at 6.5; the Vikings won by six, and 26 points finished under both the opening 47.5 and the closing 41.5.
Colts 10—Vikings 16
Final✓ Call hitThe chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had Minnesota at 71.7% (Indianapolis 28.3%): the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 6.5-point line. Minnesota won. The quarterback gate read PASS. The model’s own read was Minnesota by 3.8, a 2.7-point lean toward the Colts, tier WATCH, and the Vikings won by six, inside the 6.5: the lean was right, by half a point. The ledger holds no live position; its one row, a MODERATE Colts moneyline at 29.5¢, was voided on 2026-10-19 (no_longer_edge) and counts in neither direction. The preview on this page led with Minnesota’s blitz against Daniel Jones, sacked six times the week before; he was sacked four times for 44 yards, twice by Cashman. The final pre-kickoff board carried two PLAY rows, both HIGH, and they split. Justin Jefferson under 5.5 catches won: YES was 52.5¢ at capture, so the under cost about 47.5¢ before fees, and YES closed at 53.5¢ (CLV −1¢); he caught four. Aaron Jones Sr. over 39.5 rushing yards lost: YES at 50¢, closed 49.5¢ (CLV −0.5¢); he had eight carries for 26 yards before aggravating his knee in the fourth quarter, per the AP, while Jordan Mason carried 15 times for 68. Twelve visible WATCH rows went 6-6 and are graded apart, never folded into the record. Taylor’s rushing ladder lost all four unders (49.5 through 79.5) on 18 carries for 95 yards, his 14.5 receiving-yards under lost by a yard (15), and Aaron Jones’s 29.5 rushing over lost (26). The wins: Aaron Jones’s 19.5 and 24.5 rushing overs and his 2.5-catch under (one), Jefferson’s 6.5-catch under, Taylor’s 2.5-catch under (two) and Murray under 1.5 touchdown passes (one). Six rows on suppressed stats (four passing-yards rows, two anytime-touchdown rows) were never displayed and count in neither direction.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 6 to 41.5; the game landed on 26.
Q1
Minnesota started at the Indianapolis 47 after Myles Price’s 46-yard return of the opening kickoff and turned it over on downs four plays later. Taylor finished the Colts’ first drive with a 38-yard touchdown run, and Indianapolis kept the lead for more than three quarters.
Q2
Reichard kicked from 28 and 47 yards in the second quarter, the second setting a Vikings record of 35 straight made field goals, per the AP. The Colts answered with a 16-play, 6:37 drive and Shrader’s 43-yarder at the gun.
Q3
Indianapolis drove from its own 7 into Minnesota territory, and coach Shane Steichen sent Shrader out for a 56-yarder on fourth-and-2; it missed wide left under pressure from Isaiah Rodgers, ending Shrader’s run of 22 straight makes, per the AP. Murray ran 35 yards on the next drive and threw 5 yards to Hockenson early in the fourth quarter for a 13-10 lead, the offense’s 10th touchdown in six games, per the AP.
Q4
Grover Stewart blocked Reichard’s 59-yard try, ending the league’s longest active field-goal streak, and Shrader missed again, from 48 and wide right, on the next Colts drive. Reichard made a 52-yarder with 1:39 left, and on the Colts’ second play Smith intercepted Daniel Jones around midfield, his 40th career interception, and planted the ball on the 40.
Reporting verified 2026-10-25. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Vikings defense clamps down on Daniel Jones and the Colts for a 16-10 victory to stay undefeated
The most lopsided matchup on the slate. Minnesota comes off a bye at 5-0 with the league’s best defense by a wide margin and a nearly clean injury report; Indianapolis arrives having been taken apart by pressure in Tennessee, with eleven players down on Wednesday and a bottom-five defense of its own. Both quarterback rooms clear our gate.
Vikings pass rush · Colts pass protection
Jones was sacked six times in the Week 6 loss to Tennessee, and his season profile against the blitz is the specific weakness Minnesota is built to find: 57.1 percent completions for 724 yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions and fifteen sacks, eighteenth in expected points per dropback when blitzed. Minnesota is tied fifth in the league in sacks despite having played a game fewer than almost everyone, and the pressure comes from scheme rather than from one rusher. The Colts’ counter is to run it and stay out of blitz down-and-distance — which is why Jonathan Taylor being limited on Wednesday is the swing factor on the whole game plan.
Source: SI — The biggest question for every NFL game in Week 7 (2026-10-22)
Vikings defense · Colts offense and defense
Minnesota allows 12.8 points a game, first in the league and about ten points below the league average of 23.1 — the largest gap between a defense and the field anywhere on this slate. Indianapolis therefore has to score. The problem is that it cannot win a low-scoring game either: its own defense concedes 27.3 a game, twenty-eighth. And the Colts’ passing offense is twenty-second by raw total with four touchdowns against six interceptions, the worst ratio among the teams we reviewed this week. A team that needs points against the defense least likely to allow them, and that cannot trade field position instead, is in the worst available position.
Source: Pro-Football-Reference — 2026 opponent stats (2026-10-21)
Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture
Neither Jones nor Murray is on the Week 7 report, so the gate passes and no quarterback adjustment applies. Beyond that the availability gap is the second story of the game. Indianapolis had the longest DNP list on the slate — eleven players, including Keenan Allen, both starting cornerbacks in Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward, tight end Tyler Warren, guard Matt Goncalves and punter Rigoberto Sanchez — with Jonathan Taylor among five limited. Minnesota had no DNPs at all: Justin Jefferson, Brian O’Neill and James Pierre limited, everyone else full, coming off a bye. Gardner is reported to have a calf strain and to be week-to-week, which if accurate removes a starting cornerback from a defense already twenty-eighth in points allowed.
Reporting verified 2026-10-22. Further sources: SI — The biggest question for every NFL game in Week 7 (2026-10-22) · NFL.com — official Week 7 2026 injury report · Pro-Football-Reference — 2026 opponent stats (2026-10-21) · Pro-Football-Reference — 2026 season index, records (2026-10-21) · NFL.com — 2026 team offense passing · CBS Sports — 2026 standings (2026-10-22)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
IND
-1.6
MIN
+0.6
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Colts
28%
fair value (books)
Vikings
72%
fair value (books)
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50%
Madden 27
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Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
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Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 — the graded call is above.
The Vikings come in with 7 more days off — 14 days' rest for the Vikings against 7 days' rest for the Colts. We measured what that is worth across 3,120 games since 2013: about a tenth of a point per day, so roughly 0.7 points here. The market already charges for rest — closing lines move about 0.14 points per day of it — and rested teams have not beaten the close for it. The rest gap is real but small. What moves this game is the 2.2-point ratings gap, which has the Vikings by 4, 60% to win.
The Colts come in off the Titans, the Vikings off the Saints. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Vikings grade +2.4 on that side of the ball (1st of 32) against a Colts offense at -0.6 (21st) — 3.0 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Vikings offense (-2.4, 30th) meets the Colts defense (-1.8, 22nd), a 0.6-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Vikings at 11.6 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Colts at 6.7 (favored in 7) — 4.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Vikings' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Colts'.
One team has owned this series: the Colts are 5-2 in 7 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Vikings won 21-13 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Vikings are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 60% on the Vikings here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25INDMIN, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 72% for the Vikings. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Vikings | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 73% 73c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket.com (international) | no captured price for this game — international book | Informational |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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41:41NFL Week 4 Picks: Derrick Henry TD Ladder, Chiefs-Raiders, Falcons-Saints | Fade The Field Ep. 19Oct 1, 2026Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 — final, played Sunday, October 25, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Vikings by 6.5 (72% to win), and the Vikings won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Vikings by 6.5 points, a 72% win probability over the Colts. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT25INDMIN market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Barely. The Vikings have 7 more days off, and across 3,120 games since 2013 a rest day has been worth about a tenth of a point, so roughly 0.7 points here — not the point or two it is often credited with. Closing lines already charge about 0.14 points per rest day, and teams with the edge have not beaten the close for it (48.5% against the spread in the 10-days-vs-7 spot, n=301). The 4-point line and 72% win probability are driven by the ratings gap.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT25INDMIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Vikings at 70c or below, or the Colts at 26c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Indianapolis Colts visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Vikings at 11.6 wins (favored in 10) and the Colts at 6.7 (favored in 7). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Colts', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25INDMIN, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 7 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT25INDMIN has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Vikings at 60% over the Colts sit in that band, off a 4-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 28% against a market price implying 25%, an edge of +3.3 points. Model 28% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 25% on IND — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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Patriots at BearsModel: Bears −2.5
Steelers at SaintsModel: Steelers −2.5
49ers at FalconsModel: 49ers −2
Bengals at RavensModel: Bengals −1.5
Buccaneers at PanthersModel: Panthers −3
Giants at TexansModel: Texans −5
Dolphins at JetsModel: Jets −4.5
Browns at TitansModel: Browns −1
Broncos at CardinalsModel: Broncos −2.5
Packers at LionsModel: Lions −1.5
Rams at RaidersModel: Rams −2.5
Chiefs at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −5
Cowboys at EaglesModel: Cowboys −1The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
