Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Colts by 0 in Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings, NFL Week 7 2026 — 50% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 2.5 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25INDMIN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Vikings at 45c or below (or Colts at 45c or below) is where the model would take a position.
IND
-0.1
MIN
-2.6
Colts
50%
model win prob
Vikings
50%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT25INDMINhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Vikings at 45c or below, or the Colts at 45c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Colts–Vikings is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Vikings rate -2.6 (27th of 32), the Colts -0.1 (15th) — 2.5 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 50%/50%, and this rates as the 1st-closest game of the 14 in Week 7. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Vikings at 7.1 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Colts at 8.6 (favored in 10) — 1.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Vikings' schedule and the 8th-hardest on the Colts'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Colts offense grades +0.9 (14th of 32) against a Vikings defense at -0.5 (16th) — 1.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Vikings offense (-2.5, 29th) meets the Colts defense (-1.7, 23rd), a 0.8-point gap.
On the calendar, the Colts are on 7 days and the Vikings come off their bye. The Colts come in off the Titans, the Vikings off the Saints. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
One team has owned this series: the Colts are 5-2 in 7 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Vikings won 21-13 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Vikings are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Colts at 50% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT25INDMIN is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 50% / 50% — the tradable window is narrow: Vikings at 45c or below, Colts at 45c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Colts vs Vikings — frequently asked
Who is favored in Colts vs Vikings in Week 7?
Our power-rating model favors the Colts by 0 points, a 50% win probability over the Vikings. The Vikings rate 27th of 32 (-2.6) and the Colts 15th (-0.1); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25INDMIN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Vikings (-2.6, 27th) and Colts (-0.1, 15th) are only 2.5 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 50%/50%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Colts vs Vikings?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT25INDMIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Vikings at 45c or below, or the Colts at 45c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Vikings host the Colts?
Indianapolis Colts visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN.
What does the model project for the Vikings and Colts this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Vikings at 7.1 wins (favored in 4) and the Colts at 8.6 (favored in 10). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Colts', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 50% on a team like the Colts?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Colts at 50% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 0-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.