Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

This is the second meeting. The Eagles and Cowboys already played in Week 7, and now the Eagles make the return trip in Week 12. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: +1.5 against +2.5, plus home field, equals the Cowboys by 1.5 (55%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Eagles offense grades +0.5 (17th of 32) against a Cowboys defense at -3.2 (32nd) — 3.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cowboys offense (+3.9, 3rd) meets the Eagles defense (+1.8, 5th), a 2.2-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Cowboys grade +0.7, 7th in the league, against +0.2 (24th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

On the standings side, NFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 7, so a season sweep is on the table here on the NFC East race.

Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.8 projected wins for the Cowboys against 9.7 for the Eagles, favored in 11 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 11th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Eagles'.

Scheduling note: this is a Thursday game — one of 3 that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.

Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Cowboys at 55% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26NOV26PHIDAL is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 55% / 45% — the tradable window is narrow: Cowboys at 50c or below, Eagles at 40c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Full division picture on the NFC East hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.