Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo Bills
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Quick Answer
As of September 15, 2026, our model favors the Bills by 7.5 in Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo Bills, NFL Week 3 2026 — 65% to win, and the 16th-widest model gap in Week 3. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LACBUF yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Bills at 60c or below (or Chargers at 30c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LAC
-0.6
BUF
+3.8
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Chargers
35%
model win prob
Bills
65%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
38%
Madden 27
62%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LACBUF hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Bills at 60c or below, or the Chargers at 30c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Chargers at Bills
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Bills −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Why the model has the Bills by 7.5
The model does not think this one is close. The Bills rate 4th of 32 at +3.8, the Chargers 19th at -0.6, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Bills by 7.5 — 65% to win. That is the 16th-widest gap among the 16 games on the Week 3 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Chargers need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.1 (2nd of 32) against a Chargers defense at -0.1 (10th) — 4.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Chargers offense (-0.9, 24th) meets the Bills defense (-0.7, 16th), a 0.2-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Bills at 10.1 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Chargers at 8.1 (favored in 8) — 1.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Bills' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Chargers'.
On the calendar, the Chargers are on 7 days and the Bills are on 10 days. The Chargers come in off the Raiders, the Bills off the Lions. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Recent history, for context only: 10 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-4 in the Chargers' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2023: Bills won 24-22 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Bills are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 65% on the Bills here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LACBUF, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Bills 65%, Chargers 35%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Bills contracts a buy at 60c or below and Chargers contracts a buy at 30c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Chargers vs Bills on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LACBUF
- Market-implied (Bills)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Bills)
- 65%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LACBUF yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Bills at 60c or below, or the Chargers at 30c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Chargers vs Bills trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Bills | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Chargers vs Bills — frequently asked
Who is favored in Chargers vs Bills in Week 3?
Our power-rating model picks the Bills by 7.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Chargers, for a projected score of Bills 28, Chargers 20 on a ratings-implied 48.0-point total. The Bills rate 4th of 32 (+3.8) and the Chargers 19th (-0.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LACBUF yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the Chargers to win?
The 7.5-point line comes from a 4.4-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Chargers still project at 35% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Chargers defense (-0.1, 10th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Chargers vs Bills?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LACBUF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bills at 60c or below, or the Chargers at 30c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bills host the Chargers?
Los Angeles Chargers visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.
What does the model project for the Bills and Chargers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bills at 10.1 wins (favored in 13) and the Chargers at 8.1 (favored in 8). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Bills' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Chargers', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Chargers vs Bills?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LACBUF yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Bills at 60c or below or the Chargers at 30c or below, off a 7.5-point line.
Can you trade Chargers vs Bills on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 3 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LACBUF. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 65% on a team like the Bills?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Bills at 65% over the Chargers sit in that band, off a 7.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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