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Home/NFL/Week 3/Chargers vs Bills
Gridiron EdgeWeek 3 · 2026

Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24

Final. Bills' next game: Bills vs Raiders, Week 6 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, September 27, 2026): Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 — NFL Week 3, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bills by 7 (73% to win); the Bills won, so that call hit. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

Settled

Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bills by 7 (73% to win). The Bills won — that call landed.

Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Every game · Week 3

The best play from every Week 3 game, and where to get in

This game: Justin Herbert under 2 TD passes (NO), rest 59¢, walk away above 65¢.

Buffalo 24, Los Angeles 16: the Bills turned it over five times and won, because the Chargers turned six trips inside the 30 into a touchdown and three field goals

James Cook lost the ball on the opening snap, Josh Allen threw two interceptions and lost a fumble, Dalton Kincaid fumbled too, and Buffalo trailed 10-0 after a quarter and 13-10 into the fourth. Then C.J. Gardner-Johnson picked off Justin Herbert at the goal line, Allen scored the second of his two one-yard touchdown runs for Buffalo’s first lead with 7:35 left, and Cook — 154 yards on the day — finished it from three. The Chargers are 0-3 for the first time since 2017 with an offense that has punted more often and turned it over more often than it has scored touchdowns.

Chargers 16—Bills 24

Final✓ Call hit

The chip on this page reads a hit, and the honest version is that the chip and the house’s position pointed at different teams. The stored probability had Buffalo at 73.2% — the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero from a 7-point line — and Buffalo won, so it grades a hit. The model’s own read was Buffalo by 7.3 against that line, a 0.3-point lean, tier NONE: the model and the market agreed. The position in the ledger did not. 2026_03_LAC_BUF_moneyline is a HIGH row on the Chargers, entered at 33.5c on Wednesday 2026-09-16 when the anchored line was Buffalo by 4.5: 65.5% Buffalo against a Kalshi price of 71.5c, a 6-point edge to Los Angeles. The market then spent eleven days walking the other way — DraftKings opened Bills minus 2.5 and closed minus 7, the Chargers contract went from 33.5c to 24.5c for a CLV of minus 9c, the worst on any Week 3 row — and the Chargers lost by eight. That is a position loss with the closing line against it, and the code’s verdict on the move is toward-winner. The second ledger row went the other way: 2026_03_LAC_BUF_total, a MODERATE under at the 48.5 rung (ticker KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP27LACBUF-49), the model pricing the over at 49.7% against a Kalshi price of 55c, a 5.3-point edge to the under, the NO side costing 44.5c on Thursday 2026-09-24 with the YES at 55.5c, and the YES closing at 55.5c for a flat CLV. Forty points cleared it by eight and a half. Saturday’s article made one call here and it cleared: Herbert under two touchdown passes, the NO at 60c, PLAY, HIGH — he threw one, a one-yard shovel to Keaton Mitchell. The same strike on the final board (LAC Herbert pass_tds 1.5 UNDER, HIGH, the YES at 38.5c so the NO cost 61.5c, the YES closing 40.5c, CLV minus 2c) is the one visible player call in either room and it resolved our way. The article also noted a small Chargers moneyline Lean on the page’s Kickoff Board at 24.5c; that side lost too. Twenty-one WATCH rows across the two rooms went 9-12 and are graded apart, as always.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Bills −2.5 → Bills −7
Total
48.5 → 50.5
Moneyline
LAC +120 / BUF −142 → LAC +275 / BUF −345

The spread moved toward the side that won. The total rose 2 to 50.5; the game landed on 40.

How it happened

Q1

Cook fumbled the first snap of the game, and Buffalo turned it over three times before the quarter ended

Buffalo’s opening possession lasted one play: Cook lost the ball at the Bills 43 and Los Angeles cashed the short field in eight plays, Herbert finding Mitchell on a one-yard shovel pass. Rookie safety Genesis Smith then intercepted Allen twice — the first set up Cameron Dicker’s 31-yarder from the Buffalo 43, the second came two plays into a Bills drive that began with 34 seconds left in the quarter. Three Buffalo turnovers on its first four possessions, ten Charger points.

After one
Chargers 10, Bills 0
Buffalo first-quarter turnovers
3 (Cook fumble, 2 Allen INT)
Genesis Smith
2 INT

ESPN — box score

Q2

Dicker missed from the 27, and Allen went 80 yards in 3:49 to tie it before the half

Los Angeles drove 63 yards in eleven plays to the Buffalo 27 and came away with nothing when Dicker missed. Buffalo answered with a ten-play field-goal drive, then took the ball at its own 20 with 4:05 left and went 80 yards in ten plays, Allen scoring from a yard out with 16 seconds on the clock. Allen afterwards: “Sitting there to be tied at halftime felt like a dream, to be honest.”

Halftime
Chargers 10, Bills 10
Buffalo tying drive
10 plays, 80 yards, 3:49
Dicker
3/4 FG (31, 21, 33)

ESPN — AP recap

Q3

Kincaid and Allen both lost fumbles in the third quarter; Los Angeles got three points out of the whole thing

The Chargers opened the half with a 13-play, 69-yard drive that took 8:48 off the clock and reached the Buffalo 3 — and produced a 21-yard field goal, 13-10. Buffalo gave the ball back twice more, Kincaid losing it while fighting for extra yards and Allen fumbling deep in his own end, and Los Angeles punted between them. Six Charger drives ended inside the Buffalo 30 on the day; one of them was a touchdown.

Chargers opening drive of the half
13 plays, 69 yards, 8:48 — FG
Buffalo turnovers through three quarters
5 (3 fumbles lost, 2 INT)
Red zone
LAC 1/4 · BUF 3/4

ESPN — AP recap

Q4

Gardner-Johnson at the goal line, Allen from the 1, Cook from the 3, and a recovered onside kick

Three plays after Allen’s fumble handed Los Angeles the ball at the Buffalo 28, Gardner-Johnson intercepted Herbert’s throw for Marquez Valdes-Scantling at the goal line and returned it 41 yards. Buffalo went 58 yards in thirteen plays, Allen scoring from the 1 for the first Bills lead of the day at 7:35, and after Herbert was stopped on fourth down at his own 45, Cook ran it in from three. Dicker’s 33-yarder with 1:56 left was the last score; Buffalo recovered the onside kick. It was the first Bills win with five or more turnovers since 1997.

Cook
24 carries · 154 yds · 1 TD
Allen
16/26 · 204 yds · 0 TD · 2 INT; 8 rushes · 22 yds · 2 TD
Herbert
20/34 · 226 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT

ESPN — AP recap

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has graded this game’s positions: 2026_03_LAC_BUF_moneyline graded LOSS (minus 34c) and 2026_03_LAC_BUF_total graded WIN (plus 56c) at 2026-09-28 00:55 UTC (20:55 ET Sunday), via the canonical settle pass (gridiron_edge/scripts/capture_edge_clv.py --season 2026 --week 3 --mode settle --tables game), run by Cowork once Kalshi had finalized the contracts — the same code the Tue/Wed launchd schedule runs. Both grades match the outcome stated above; the P/L figure is the ledger’s number, not this page’s. The prop rows on this page are not yet graded by the ledger — the Tue/Wed launchd pass owns them (--tables prop was not run) — so every prop grade above is derived from the ESPN box score by script (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W3_SUNDAY_2026/prop-reconciliation-w03-sunday.csv), never by hand; entry_price on a NO or UNDER row is the YES price, so that side’s cost is 100 minus it, and no P/L is summed on this page. If the ledger ever disagrees with anything above, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The HIGH Chargers moneyline row was captured 2026-09-16, eleven days before kickoff, at an anchored line of Buffalo by 4.5. By Saturday the article described the page’s Kickoff Board showing only a small Chargers Lean at 24.5c. Which of the two a reader saw on Sunday morning was not checked against a page snapshot; both were the Chargers, both lost, and the ledger row is the one that counts.
  • Where Kincaid’s fumble happened is not stated: the AP places it at the Chargers 17, ESPN’s drive chart ends that Buffalo possession at the Los Angeles 48. Allen’s fumble is placed by the AP at his own 28 and by the drive chart as the Chargers’ next possession starting at the Buffalo 28; those agree.
  • ESPN’s summary carried no weather block. Attendance (60,361) is ESPN’s figure and is not independently confirmed.
  • Donte Jackson (concussion, ruled out in the first half) and Christian Benford (toe, late third quarter) had no confirmed severity when this was published.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the entries and closes quoted are the ledger’s captures, the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close, and the prop grade is a resolution against the box score, not a settlement read off the exchange.

Reporting verified 2026-09-27. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Allen, Bills outlast Chargers 24-16 despite committing 5 turnovers · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

The league’s best offense meets a 0-2 Chargers team that has lost the same game twice

Buffalo is 2-0 and scoring more than any offense in football; Los Angeles is 0-2 and has lost consecutive home games by the identical score of 26-14. Both quarterbacks are clean — neither Josh Allen nor Justin Herbert appears anywhere on this week’s injury report — so this is a game about which line of scrimmage holds up, and the Chargers’ is the one with eight players who did not practice on Wednesday.

Quarterback play, both ways

Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, two weeks in, are not in the same place

Edge: Bills

The gap in the early-season lines is wide enough to be the story by itself. Allen has thrown five touchdowns without an interception; Herbert has two touchdowns against three interceptions and turned the ball over three times in a single game last week. Buffalo has scored on the way to 36 and 41 points; Los Angeles has been held to 14 in each of its two home losses. Neither man is on the injury report, so nothing here is about health — it is about an offense that is working and one that Jim Harbaugh has described as still learning things the hard way.

Josh Allen, two games
66.7% comp, 582 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT
Justin Herbert, two games
59.3% comp, 401 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
Buffalo scoring
38.5 PPG — 1st in the NFL

Source: Buffalo Wdown — five pivotal matchups for Bills vs Chargers

Bills run offense · Chargers run defense

James Cook against a Chargers front that practised eight men short

Edge: Bills

Cook is second in the league in rushing through two weeks and went for 135 on 21 carries in Week 2. He arrives against a Los Angeles defensive front that had defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson (hamstring) among eight players who did not practise on Wednesday, with Khalil Mack given a veteran rest day and Tuli Tuipulotu limited with a hamstring. Buffalo is averaging 5.01 yards per rush attempt, fourth in the league, and a lead is the condition under which that number does its real damage.

James Cook, two games
192 rush yds — 2nd in the NFL
Bills yards per play
7.07 — 1st (9.43 passing, 5.01 rushing)
Chargers ruled OUT (Friday)
Tomlinson (DT), Molden, Awosika (G), Pipkins (T), Thompson (WR)

Source: chargers.com — Week 3 injury report vs Buffalo

Chargers pass offense · Bills coverage

Los Angeles is losing tight ends faster than it can replace them

Edge: Bills

Charlie Kolar (forearm) did not practise and both he and David Njoku have been reported as headed to injured reserve, which removes the middle of the field from an offense that has already struggled to sustain drives. Ladd McConkey (rib) did at least practise in full, which matters more than usual with the tight end room emptying. On the other side Buffalo has its own Wednesday absences — Keon Coleman (ankle) and Ed Oliver (hip) did not practise, and DJ Moore (shoulder) was limited — on a list one local outlet called longer than expected.

Chargers TEs
Kolar (forearm) + Njoku reported headed to IR
Ladd McConkey (rib)
Full participant all week; no designation
Bills (Friday)
Moore (shoulder) and Coleman (ankle) questionable; Sanders and Hancock OUT; Oliver no designation

Source: Yahoo Sports — Bills injury report after Wednesday’s practice

What this read does not know

  • Friday made the Chargers’ front thinner, not healthier. Dalvin Tomlinson is OUT along with Elijah Molden, Kayode Awosika, Trey Pipkins and Brenen Thompson, and backup QB Trey Lance is questionable. Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu were full participants in the latest official practice report and carry no designation.
  • DJ Moore (shoulder) and Keon Coleman (ankle) are both questionable , and they are two of Buffalo’s pass-catchers. Questionable is a coin the club has not flipped yet; the inactives list, 90 minutes before kickoff, is the ruling.
  • The severity and timeline of the Chargers’ tight end losses could not be pinned down. Kolar and Njoku are reported as heading to injured reserve; no club transaction confirming it was located, and left guard Kayode Awosika’s timeline is likewise described only as possibly multiple games.
  • Two games is not a rate. Buffalo’s 38.5 points per game and the Chargers’ two 26-14 losses are both two-game samples against specific opponents, not established properties.
  • We publish no position on this game. The prop rows our model produced for it this week sit in stat families whose published-probability calibration is currently held, and the run they come from carries a one-way lean we do not trust (see the week’s handoff). An honest zero is the answer here.

Reporting verified 2026-09-25. Further sources: chargers.com — Chargers vs Bills injury report, Week 3 · Yahoo Sports — Bills injury report after Wednesday’s practice · buffalobills.com — Top storylines for Bills vs Chargers · Buffalo Wdown — five pivotal matchups · chargers.com — A Chargers-Bills preview ahead of Week 3 · NFL.com — official Week 3 injury report (latest practice participation) · ESPN — NFL injuries, Friday 09-25 designations

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 3 MODEL LINE
Sun, Sep 27
AWAY LAC -2.6
vs BUF -7
HOME BUF +2.4
Fair (books) · BUF 73% home win prob
Kalshi · BUF — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Orchard Park, NY PASS — no position

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Chargers

27%

fair value (books)

Bills

73%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →

38%

Madden 27

62%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Chargers at Bills

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Chargers at BillsSpreadMARKET READ

Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Chargers at Bills Kalshi spread ladder for Week 3: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Chargers–Bills spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Chargers vs Bills power ratings (Week 3)

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Los Angeles Chargers-2.627thBelow Avg
    Buffalo Bills+2.46thPlayoff

    Chargers and Bills season outlook

    LACBUF
    Average wins4.910.9
    Make playoffs5%77%
    Win division2%43%
    Win Super Bowl0.2%6.3%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Before kickoff: Why the model has the Bills by 7.5

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 — the graded call is above.

    The model does not think this one is close. The Bills rate 6th of 32 at +2.4, the Chargers 27th at -2.6, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Bills by 7.5 — 69% to win. That is the 2nd-widest gap among the 16 games on the Week 3 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Chargers need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.4 (1st of 32) against a Chargers defense at +0.3 (8th) — 4.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Chargers offense (-2.9, 32nd) meets the Bills defense (-2.5, 29th), a 0.5-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Bills grade +0.5, 7th in the league, against +0.0 (29th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Bills at 10.9 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Chargers at 4.9 (favored in 3) — 6.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Bills' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Chargers'.

    On the calendar, the Chargers are on 7 days and the Bills are on 10 days. The Chargers come in off the Raiders, the Bills off the Lions. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.

    Recent history, for context only: 10 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-4 in the Chargers' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2023: Bills won 24-22 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Bills are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

    Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 69% on the Bills here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.

    There is no market to compare against yet — Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LACBUF — and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Bills YES is only worth buying at 71c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 73%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Chargers at 25c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Chargers vs Bills on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LACBUF
    Market-implied (Bills)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Bills)
    73%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 73% for the Bills. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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    Where Chargers vs Bills trades

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueBillsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig75% 75cOpen Novig →
    Polymarketno captured price for this game — international bookSign-up offer →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    Fanatics Marketsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Chargers vs Bills

    Thursday Night Football preview: Bills - Lions #nfl #bills #lions — video thumbnailShortThursday Night Football preview: Bills - Lions #nfl #bills #lionsSep 16, 2026

    Chargers vs Bills — frequently asked

    Who won Chargers vs Bills in Week 3?

    Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 — final, played Sunday, September 27, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bills by 7 (73% to win), and the Bills won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Chargers vs Bills before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Bills by 7 points, a 73% win probability over the Chargers. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LACBUF market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What would it take for the Chargers to win?

    The 7.5-point line comes from a 5.0-point rating gap, 2.5 points of home field, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Chargers still project at 27% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Chargers defense (+0.3, 8th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.

    How do you take a position on Chargers vs Bills?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LACBUF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bills at 71c or below, or the Chargers at 25c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Bills host the Chargers?

    Los Angeles Chargers visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.

    What does the model project for the Bills and Chargers this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Bills at 10.9 wins (favored in 11) and the Chargers at 4.9 (favored in 3). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Bills' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Chargers', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Chargers vs Bills?

    Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LACBUF yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Bills at 71c or below or the Chargers at 25c or below, off a 7.5-point line.

    Could you trade Chargers vs Bills on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 3 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LACBUF has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 69% on a team like the Bills?

    68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Bills at 69% over the Chargers sit in that band, off a 7.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

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