Updated · model ratings
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, September 20, 2026): Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35 — NFL Week 2, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the 49ers by 13.5 (88% to win); the 49ers won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the 49ers at 90c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the 49ers by 13.5 (88% to win). The 49ers won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the 49ers: 0c — we archived the 49ers at 90c on Sep 14; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 90c on Sep 20. The market did not move on our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
The 49ers scored touchdowns on their first five possessions, Brock Purdy went 20 of 22 for 287 with two touchdown passes and a touchdown run — eighteen straight completions at one point — and Christian McCaffrey’s two one-yard scores gave him 100 career touchdowns in 114 games, the fourth-fastest in the Super Bowl era. Miami did not have a touchdown drive until Malik Willis hit Ryan Miller for 77 with 2:30 left. A twelve-and-a-half-point favorite won by twenty-two, and it is the second straight twenty-point win to open a season in franchise history.
Dolphins 13—49ers 35
Final✓ Call hitThe chip grades the stored probability, which had San Francisco at 88.4% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from a 13.5-point margin — and San Francisco won, so it reads a hit. The model’s own read was San Francisco by 6.6, the right team and seven points shy of the market; the game finished twenty-two apart, so the market was closer and both were light. The lean was toward Miami relative to the price by about seven points, which is a large disagreement, and it did not become a position: no weekly-edges ledger row exists for 2026_02_MIA_SF, and a reader should notice that the floor held back a Miami read that would have lost. The Wednesday article did not touch the game. The player board published nothing visible here either: the final board carried no PLAY row on a surfaceable stat for either room, so there is no visible record to state. What it did carry was three Purdy passing-yards unders at 224.5, 249.5 and 274.5, STRONG on a 203.8 projection, and all three lost on his 287 — a 20-of-22 afternoon against a projection that had him sixty yards lower. They do not count; pass_yds is suppressed and nobody could see them. They are mentioned because the projection behind them was as wrong as anything on the slate, and suppression is a display rule, not an excuse. Twelve WATCH rows went eight and four and are graded apart.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 2 to 44.5; the game landed on 48.
Q1
Riley Patterson missed from 51 on Miami’s opening drive. McCaffrey scored from the one with 4:17 left in the quarter, the first of five straight San Francisco touchdown drives. Miami had spent the week practicing in Napa to avoid the travel; it did not help.
Q2
Patterson hit from 28 with 9:56 left in the half, Purdy scored from two with 5:24 to go, and Patterson hit from 24 as the half expired. Miami settled for two field goals on red-zone trips in the half; San Francisco scored touchdowns on both of its. Demarcus Robinson left in the second quarter with a right ankle injury and did not return.
Q3
Purdy hit George Kittle from twelve with 13:08 left in the third and Kyle Juszczyk from six with 5:46 to go, and McCaffrey scored his second one-yarder with 3:10 left — his 100th career touchdown, in his 114th game, behind only LaDainian Tomlinson, Emmitt Smith and Shaun Alexander in the Super Bowl era. Kittle finished with four catches for 80 with a 40-yarder.
Q4
Willis, sacked four times, hit Miller for a 77-yard touchdown with 2:30 to play. He finished 14 of 23 for 197. De’Von Achane carried twenty times for 74. Mike Evans left in the second half with a hip injury; Miami lost Jaylen Wright to a stinger in the first half and Caleb Douglas to an ankle in the second.
Reporting verified 2026-09-20. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: 49ers score TDs on 1st 5 drives to beat the Dolphins 35-13 · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line
Miami's 2026 teardown was near-total: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are all gone, Mike McDaniel was fired, and Malik Willis took 5 sacks in a Week 1 loss at Las Vegas. San Francisco, meanwhile, added Mike Evans and Osa Odighizuwa and opened with a 27-7 win over the Rams in Melbourne. Nearly every unit in this game points the same direction, which is precisely why the roster verification below matters more than the reputation of either logo.
Dolphins pass protection · 49ers pass rush
Miami's line surrendered five sacks and 35 yards in lost ground at Las Vegas, with Kwity Paye and Maxx Crosby combining for 3.5 of them. That line starts rookie first-round tackle Kadyn Proctor at left guard next to second-year left tackle Patrick Paul, and it now faces a front San Francisco rebuilt specifically to win inside — Odighizuwa arrived from Dallas for a third-round pick and lines up next to Bosa. San Francisco generated zero sacks against the Rams, so the raw pressure output has not yet shown up, but the personnel gap here is the single widest in the game.
49ers pass offense · Dolphins secondary
Evans is San Francisco's listed left wide receiver, which sets him primarily against Miami's right cornerback, Jason Marshall Jr. Miami's other outside corner is JuJu Brents, with rookie Chris Johnson in the slot — and Johnson, to his credit, posted 11 tackles and two pass breakups in his debut. But Miami's two best-credentialed corner options, Storm Duck and Darrell Baker Jr., are both on PUP, leaving no veteran to travel with Evans. Deebo Samuel in the slot and George Kittle underneath compound the problem.
Source: Ourlads Dolphins depth chart
49ers run offense · Dolphins run defense
San Francisco ran for 174 yards on 30 carries against the Rams, a shade under 5.8 per attempt, and did it with a genuinely split backfield: Christian McCaffrey took 10 carries for 68 while rookie third-rounder Kaelon Black took 14 for 65. Miami actually defended the run adequately in Week 1, holding Las Vegas to 130 yards on 30 attempts, though Ashton Jeanty still went for 102 on 23. The concern is interior depth — Kenneth Grant is on IR, leaving Zeek Biggers and Zach Sieler as the starting tackles.
Dolphins run offense · 49ers run defense
Achane managed 36 yards on 11 carries at Las Vegas — 3.3 per attempt — and Miami's leading rusher on the day was actually Malik Willis, with 39 yards and a touchdown on six scrambles. Total team rushing was 74 yards. San Francisco held the Rams to 122 yards on 29 carries behind Fred Warner, who passed Patrick Willis for the franchise tackles record in Week 1, and a returning Dre Greenlaw. With no receiving threat forcing light boxes, Miami's run game has very little structural help.
Dolphins pass rush · 49ers pass protection
Miami registered zero sacks in Week 1. Its best edge rusher, Chop Robinson, is now working through a concussion — limited Wednesday, did not practice Thursday — and Bradley Chubb is gone in free agency, leaving Josh Uche opposite him with Rob Beal Jr. and Malik Herring behind. San Francisco protects with Trent Williams at left tackle and Dominick Puni at right guard and allowed zero sacks to the Rams. Williams did not practice Wednesday and returned to full participation Thursday, listed as a rest day rather than an injury.
49ers pass offense · Dolphins pass defense
This is the one phase where Miami has a real argument. Purdy's Week 1 line was efficient in the scoring column but modest in volume — 25-of-34 for 205 yards, 6.0 per attempt, 3 touchdowns and an interception. Miami's young secondary generated two interceptions against Kirk Cousins, from rookie safety Michael Taaffe and Dante Trader Jr., and rookie linebacker Jacob Rodriguez led the team with 14 tackles. If Miami keeps the ball in front and forces San Francisco to finish long drives, the takeaway profile is live.
Coaching, continuity and Week 2 availability
Kyle Shanahan returns with Klay Kubiak at offensive coordinator and Raheem Morris installed as defensive coordinator, with Matt Eberflus added as assistant head coach for defense. Miami is in year one of a full reset under Jeff Hafley, with Bobby Slowik calling plays and Sean Duggan running the defense. San Francisco's Wednesday report was heavy with veteran rest days — Bosa, McCaffrey, Greenlaw and Trent Williams all DNP for rest, with all four upgraded Thursday — which is routine maintenance rather than a genuine availability concern. One caveat: San Francisco played Week 1 in Melbourne and is on a short turnaround home.
Reporting verified 2026-09-18. Further sources: footballdb Week 1 box score, MIA at LV · Ourlads Dolphins depth chart · footballdb Week 1 box score, SF vs LAR · Dolphins official injury report, Week 2 · Dolphins, Inside the Numbers: Week 1 · 49ers official injury report, Week 2 · 2026 Miami Dolphins season, Wikipedia · 2026 San Francisco 49ers season, Wikipedia · 2026 NFL season, Wikipedia · Ourlads San Francisco 49ers depth chart · Dolphins official active roster · 49ers official active roster
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
MIA
-4.3
SF
+2.7
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Dolphins
12%
fair value (books)
49ers
88%
fair value (books)
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19%
Madden 27
81%
Madden 27
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Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35 — the graded call is above.
The 49ers come in with 3 more days off — 10 days' rest for the 49ers against 7 days' rest for the Dolphins. We measured what that is worth across 3,120 games since 2013: about a tenth of a point per day, so roughly 0.3 points here. The market already charges for rest — closing lines move about 0.14 points per day of it — and rested teams have not beaten the close for it. The rest gap is real but small. What moves this game is the 7.0-point ratings gap, which has the 49ers by 6.5, 68% to win.
The Dolphins come in off the Raiders, the 49ers off the Rams. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the 49ers offense grades +3.8 (2nd of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -3.9 (31st) — 7.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-0.7, 23rd) meets the 49ers defense (-1.7, 21st), a 1.0-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the 49ers at 11.9 wins (favored in 14 of 17) and the Dolphins at 5.0 (favored in 2) — 6.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the 49ers' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Dolphins'.
One team has owned this series: the Dolphins are 5-2 in 7 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Dolphins won 29-17 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the 49ers are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favorites went 68%. The 68% on the 49ers here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MIASF, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 88% for the 49ers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | 49ers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 89% 89c | Open Novig → |
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| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
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Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35 — final, played Sunday, September 20, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the 49ers by 13.5 (88% to win), and the 49ers won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the 49ers by 13.5 points, a 88% win probability over the Dolphins. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MIASF market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Barely. The 49ers have 3 more days off, and across 3,120 games since 2013 a rest day has been worth about a tenth of a point, so roughly 0.3 points here — not the point or two it is often credited with. Closing lines already charge about 0.14 points per rest day, and teams with the edge have not beaten the close for it (48.5% against the spread in the 10-days-vs-7 spot, n=301). The 6.5-point line and 88% win probability are driven by the ratings gap.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MIASF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the 49ers at 86c or below, or the Dolphins at 10c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Miami Dolphins visit the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA.
Across all 17 games the model projects the 49ers at 11.9 wins (favored in 14) and the Dolphins at 5.0 (favored in 2). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the 49ers' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Dolphins', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MIASF, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 2 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MIASF has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The 49ers at 68% over the Dolphins sit in that band, off a 6.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Lions at BillsModel: Bills −4
Panthers at FalconsModel: Falcons −4
Saints at RavensModel: Ravens −5.5
Vikings at BearsModel: Bears −6
Bengals at TexansModel: Texans −4
Steelers at PatriotsModel: Patriots −7
Packers at JetsModel: Packers −2.5
Browns at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −4.5
Eagles at TitansModel: Eagles −3
Jaguars at BroncosModel: Broncos −0.5
Raiders at ChargersModel: Chargers −6.5
Seahawks at CardinalsModel: Seahawks −6
Commanders at CowboysModel: Cowboys −4.5
Colts at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −2.5
Giants at RamsModel: Rams −7.5The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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One of 64 games in the first-quarter report
Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →
