Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Quick Answer
As of September 15, 2026, Kalshi implies 90% for the 49ers in Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers, NFL Week 2 2026, while our market-anchored fair value has the 49ers by 6.5 (88% to win) — a 1.1pp agreement. Inside our floor for a position — no position. The model's own line is 49ers by 6.6 against a market line of 49ers by 13.5 — a 6.9-point lean toward the Dolphins, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board
Week 2 · 2026-09-15No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
MIA
-3.3
SF
+1.0
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 2 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Dolphins
12%
model win prob
49ers
88%
model win prob
Market-anchored fair value: MIA 14% (+2.1pp) Combo Edge Builder →
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
19%
Madden 27
81%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Dolphins at 49ers
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 more rungs49ers +10.5 → 49ers −2.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers −3.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers −4.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers −5.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers −6.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers −7.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers −9.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers −10.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers −12.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers −13.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers −14.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers −16.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Rest first, ratings second: Dolphins at 49ers
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The 49ers come in with 3 more days off than the other side — 10 days' rest for the 49ers against 7 days' rest for the Dolphins. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the 49ers by 6.5 (88%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 3-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Dolphins come in off the Raiders, the 49ers off the Rams. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the 49ers offense grades +3.1 (6th of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -2.7 (28th) — 5.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.4, 26th) meets the 49ers defense (-3.0, 31st), a 1.6-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the 49ers at 8.9 wins (favored in 8 of 17) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 2) — 2.3 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the 49ers' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the Dolphins'.
One team has owned this series: the Dolphins are 5-2 in 7 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Dolphins won 29-17 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the 49ers are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MIASF contract implies 90% for the 49ers against our 88% — a 1.1-point gap. That is inside our 5-point threshold, so we pass — the market and the model are telling the same story.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Dolphins vs 49ers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MIASF
- Market-implied (49ers)
- 90c · 90%
- Our model (49ers)
- 88%
- Model vs market
- -1.1pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MIASF. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 90c on the 49ers is an implied 90% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 88%, a 1.1pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Dolphins vs 49ers trades
3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | 49ers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 90% 90c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 88% 88c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarketinternational book | 89% 89c | Open Polymarket → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 90% 90c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 90% 90c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Dolphins vs 49ers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Dolphins vs 49ers in Week 2?
Our power-rating model picks the 49ers by 6.5 points, a 88% win probability over the Dolphins, for a projected score of 49ers 29, Dolphins 22 on a ratings-implied 51.4-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MIASF market implies 90% for the 49ers — a 1.1pp agreement with the model.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The 49ers have 3 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 6.5-point line or the 88% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Dolphins vs 49ers?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MIASF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. 49ers YES is quoted around 90c against our 88% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the 49ers host the Dolphins?
Miami Dolphins visit the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA.
What does the model project for the 49ers and Dolphins this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the 49ers at 8.9 wins (favored in 8) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 2). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the 49ers' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Dolphins', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Dolphins vs 49ers?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MIASF. The 49ers YES contract sits around 90c, which is an implied 90% — against our model's 88%. That is a 1.1pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Dolphins vs 49ers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MIASF. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Dolphins moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 12% against a market price implying 11%, an edge of +1.1 points. Model 12% vs market 10% on MIA. We pass — no position.
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Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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