2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 1 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 1 game priced against the live prediction market.
Free through Week 1. The full board is open — no signup. From September 15 the top 8 rows stay free and the rest becomes part of Pro. Game edges at /nfl/edges stay free permanently. Contracts trade on Kalshi.
NFL Win Total Futures Edges
Board as of · prices live
2026 season · 10,000-season simulation vs. the Kalshi KXNFLWINS ladder · All 32 teams
Win-total markets are live now on Kalshi · refreshed daily as the model and market move.
| Team | Proj Wins | Contract | Mkt E[W] | Over Prob | Price | Edge | Win gap ↓ | Tier | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dolphins | 6.8 | 4+ | 4.17 | 88.0% | 52¢ | +9.0pp | +0.67w | LOW | Trade |
 Cardinals | 6.7 | 5+ | 4.55 | 77.5% | 44¢ | +8.5pp | +0.54w | LOW | Trade |
 Browns | 7.8 | 6+ | 5.77 | 77.8% | 50¢ | +6.9pp | +0.52w | LOW | Trade |
 Falcons | 8.6 | 7+ | 6.72 | 74.8% | 49¢ | +6.6pp | +0.46w | LOW | Trade |
 Vikings | 7.2 | 9+ | 9.07 | 33.0% | 58¢ | -6.1pp | -0.46w | LOW | Trade |
 Bengals | 8.6 | 11+ | 10.30 | 27.0% | 52¢ | -6.1pp | -0.43w | LOW | Trade |
 Chiefs | 8.2 | 11+ | 9.82 | 22.3% | 44¢ | -5.3pp | -0.40w | LOW | Trade |
 Ravens | 9.1 | 12+ | 10.71 | 21.7% | 42¢ | -5.0pp | -0.39w | LOW | Trade |
 49ers | 9.5 | 11+ | 11.07 | 37.8% | 52¢ | -3.4pp | -0.38w | LOW | Trade |
 Chargers | 8.2 | 10+ | 9.63 | 32.5% | 53¢ | -5.1pp | -0.36w | LOW | Trade |
 Patriots | 10.3 | 10+ | 9.19 | 64.2% | 50¢ | +3.7pp | +0.28w | LOW | Trade |
 Lions | 9.8 | 11+ | 10.76 | 41.5% | 58¢ | -4.1pp | -0.25w | LOW | Trade |
 Cowboys | 8.8 | 10+ | 9.72 | 40.3% | 54¢ | -3.3pp | -0.24w | LOW | Trade |
 Broncos | 9.1 | 11+ | 9.94 | 32.1% | 44¢ | -2.9pp | -0.22w | LOW | Trade |
 Rams | 9.8 | 12+ | 10.65 | 27.9% | 40¢ | -2.9pp | -0.20w | LOW | Trade |
 Texans | 9.3 | 11+ | 10.07 | 34.9% | 47¢ | -3.0pp | -0.20w | LOW | Trade |
 Bills | 9.9 | 11+ | 10.69 | 43.7% | 57¢ | -3.2pp | -0.19w | LOW | Trade |
 Titans | 6.9 | 6+ | 6.19 | 67.5% | 57¢ | +2.8pp | +0.18w | LOW | Trade |
 Panthers | 7.7 | 7+ | 7.02 | 64.3% | 51¢ | +3.3pp | +0.16w | LOW | Trade |
 Commanders | 7.6 | 7+ | 7.08 | 63.8% | 58¢ | +1.4pp | +0.14w | LOW | Trade |
 Jets | 6.8 | 7+ | 6.24 | 52.0% | 44¢ | +2.1pp | +0.13w | LOW | Trade |
 Eagles | 9.5 | 11+ | 9.98 | 37.5% | 48¢ | -2.6pp | -0.12w | LOW | Trade |
 Bears | 8.8 | 10+ | 9.21 | 40.9% | 47¢ | -1.5pp | -0.11w | LOW | Trade |
 Steelers | 8.2 | 9+ | 8.64 | 46.2% | 52¢ | -1.3pp | -0.10w | LOW | Trade |
 Colts | 8.7 | 9+ | 8.28 | 51.8% | 47¢ | +1.2pp | +0.09w | LOW | Trade |
 Seahawks | 11.1 | 12+ | 10.78 | 46.4% | 45¢ | +0.3pp | +0.09w | LOW | Trade |
 Jaguars | 9.4 | 10+ | 9.64 | 49.4% | 49¢ | +0.1pp | -0.07w | LOW | Trade |
 Raiders | 6.0 | 6+ | 6.17 | 54.2% | 54¢ | +0.1pp | -0.06w | LOW | Trade |
 Buccaneers | 8.3 | 9+ | 8.55 | 47.4% | 51¢ | -0.9pp | -0.05w | LOW | Trade |
 Giants | 7.7 | 8+ | 7.58 | 52.0% | 50¢ | +0.6pp | +0.03w | LOW | Trade |
 Saints | 7.9 | 8+ | 8.00 | 54.1% | 54¢ | +0.0pp | -0.02w | LOW | Trade |
 Packers | 9.6 | 10+ | 9.54 | 52.5% | 57¢ | -1.0pp | +0.02w | LOW | Trade |
Proj Wins — mean of our 10,000-season simulation (the same number on every team page and the win-totals board) · Contract — the Kalshi KXNFLWINS rung trading nearest 50¢ (“10+” = at least 10 wins); the contract a trader actually buys, not the line · Mkt E[W] — the market line: expected wins implied by the whole 17-rung ladder · Over Prob — our probability the team clears the contract · Edge — that probability minus the Kalshi price, in points · Win gap — Proj Wins minus Mkt E[W], in wins, the column the Tier is graded on: STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0 · LOW below. A 1-win disagreement near a 50¢ contract reads as ~20 points of Edge, which is why the Tier does not follow the Edge column.
NFL season leaders: Kalshi vs Polymarket, widest gaps
Updated Sep 14, 12:50 AM ETThe same player, the same season-long question, two prediction-market prices. Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the Polymarket mid in cents — where the two venues disagree most on who leads the league or wins the award.
| Player · market | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRushing yards leader | 18.5¢ | 26.0¢ | -7.5¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Justin HerbertPassing yards leader | 8.5¢ | 1.5¢ | +7.0¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving touchdowns leader | 3.5¢ | 8.5¢ | -5.0¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Caleb WilliamsMVP | 12.0¢ | 16.9¢ | -4.9¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Jahmyr GibbsRushing yards leader | 15.0¢ | 10.5¢ | +4.5¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRushing touchdowns leader | 7.5¢ | 3.2¢ | +4.3¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Puka NacuaReceiving yards leader | 13.5¢ | 17.0¢ | -3.5¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Josh AllenMVP | 15.0¢ | 11.5¢ | +3.5¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Lamar JacksonMVP | 12.0¢ | 15.0¢ | -3.0¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Justin HerbertMVP | 4.5¢ | 7.5¢ | -3.0¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
Full season-leader board — 153 players priced on both venues across 9 markets →
Polymarket prices are from the international book. Polymarket US is a separate exchange with its own order book — verify the price there before taking a position.
NFL futures on prediction markets — FAQ
What are NFL futures markets on Kalshi?
NFL futures are season-long yes/no contracts on outcomes like the Super Bowl champion, conference and division winners, and award races. Kalshi lists them under the KXNFL family and they trade year-round to traders in all 50 states. Each contract settles at $1 if it hits and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market-implied probability.
How do prediction-market Super Bowl odds differ from a sportsbook?
A sportsbook futures price bakes in heavy vig — the hold on long-shot futures is often 30%+. A prediction-market contract has no house margin: the price is a direct probability. We compare each Kalshi price to our DAEPA power-rating model and flag the gap, so you see where the market favorite is over- or under-priced versus the model.
When do NFL win-total futures update?
Daily. The board refreshes each morning as the season simulation and Kalshi prices move. Kalshi posts the season win-total ladder (KXNFLWINS) year-round, so there is a live model-vs-market read on every team well before Week 1. The projected wins here are the mean of our 10,000-season simulation — the same figure on every team page and the win-totals board — and the tier is graded on the gap in wins between that mean and the ladder-implied market line, not on the percentage-point edge of a single contract.
NFL Futures Markets
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner, win probability and projected score for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale