2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 1 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 1 game priced against the live prediction market.
Free through Week 1. The full board is open — no signup. From September 15 the top 8 rows stay free and the rest becomes part of Pro. Game edges at /nfl/edges stay free permanently. Contracts trade on Kalshi.
NFL Win Total Futures Edges
Board as of · prices live
2026 season · Full-schedule model projection vs. Kalshi lines · All 32 teams
Win-total markets are live now on Kalshi · refreshed daily as the model and market move.
| Team | Proj Wins | Line | Over Prob | Market Price | Edge ↓ | Tier | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dolphins | 6.7 | 4.0 | 90.2% | 53¢ | +37.7pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Browns | 7.8 | 6.0 | 80.7% | 46¢ | +34.6pp | HIGH | Trade |
 Cardinals | 6.6 | 4.0 | 89.4% | 56¢ | +33.4pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Chiefs | 8.2 | 10.0 | 30.5% | 59¢ | -28.0pp | HIGH | Trade |
 Falcons | 8.5 | 7.0 | 77.8% | 52¢ | +26.3pp | HIGH | Trade |
 Chargers | 8.0 | 11.0 | 16.8% | 43¢ | -26.2pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Bengals | 8.4 | 11.0 | 21.6% | 47¢ | -24.9pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Vikings | 7.2 | 9.0 | 29.6% | 54¢ | -23.9pp | HIGH | Trade |
 Ravens | 9.3 | 11.0 | 32.7% | 56¢ | -23.3pp | HIGH | Trade |
 Rams | 10.6 | 12.0 | 37.2% | 59¢ | -21.8pp | MODERATE | Trade |
 Jets | 6.7 | 6.0 | 66.8% | 49¢ | +18.4pp | LOW | Trade |
 49ers | 9.0 | 10.0 | 42.2% | 59¢ | -16.3pp | MODERATE | Trade |
 Lions | 9.8 | 11.0 | 39.9% | 56¢ | -16.1pp | MODERATE | Trade |
 Commanders | 7.5 | 7.0 | 64.6% | 49¢ | +15.6pp | LOW | Trade |
 Cowboys | 8.8 | 10.0 | 40.2% | 56¢ | -15.3pp | MODERATE | Trade |
 Texans | 9.3 | 11.0 | 33.2% | 49¢ | -15.3pp | HIGH | Trade |
 Patriots | 11.0 | 11.0 | 59.7% | 45¢ | +15.2pp | LOW | Trade |
 Titans | 6.7 | 6.0 | 68.0% | 56¢ | +12.5pp | LOW | Trade |
 Eagles | 9.5 | 11.0 | 36.5% | 49¢ | -12.5pp | MODERATE | Trade |
 Bills | 10.1 | 11.0 | 44.2% | 55¢ | -10.8pp | LOW | Trade |
 Broncos | 9.1 | 10.0 | 44.3% | 55¢ | -10.7pp | LOW | Trade |
 Panthers | 7.7 | 8.0 | 51.8% | 43¢ | +8.8pp | LOW | Trade |
 Colts | 8.7 | 9.0 | 52.4% | 44¢ | +8.4pp | LOW | Trade |
 Bears | 8.9 | 10.0 | 40.6% | 48¢ | -6.9pp | MODERATE | Trade |
 Giants | 7.7 | 8.0 | 52.2% | 46¢ | +6.2pp | LOW | Trade |
 Raiders | 5.7 | 6.0 | 51.0% | 55¢ | -3.5pp | LOW | Trade |
 Jaguars | 9.5 | 10.0 | 50.3% | 47¢ | +3.3pp | LOW | Trade |
 Seahawks | 10.9 | 11.0 | 58.3% | 56¢ | +2.8pp | LOW | Trade |
 Packers | 9.7 | 10.0 | 54.6% | 54¢ | +1.1pp | LOW | Trade |
 Steelers | 8.2 | 9.0 | 46.0% | 46¢ | +0.5pp | LOW | Trade |
 Saints | 7.9 | 8.0 | 54.9% | 55¢ | +0.4pp | LOW | Trade |
 Buccaneers | 8.4 | 9.0 | 48.2% | 49¢ | -0.3pp | LOW | Trade |
Proj Wins — model expected wins (exact, full-schedule) · Line — Kalshi win total line · Over Prob — model P(team goes OVER line) · Edge — model prob minus Kalshi price
NFL futures on prediction markets — FAQ
What are NFL futures markets on Kalshi?
NFL futures are season-long yes/no contracts on outcomes like the Super Bowl champion, conference and division winners, and award races. Kalshi lists them under the KXNFL family and they trade year-round to traders in all 50 states. Each contract settles at $1 if it hits and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market-implied probability.
How do prediction-market Super Bowl odds differ from a sportsbook?
A sportsbook futures price bakes in heavy vig — the hold on long-shot futures is often 30%+. A prediction-market contract has no house margin: the price is a direct probability. We compare each Kalshi price to our DAEPA power-rating model and flag the gap, so you see where the market favorite is over- or under-priced versus the model.
When do NFL win-total futures update?
Continuously. The board refreshes daily through the off-season and intraday once the season starts, as power ratings and Kalshi prices move. Kalshi posts the season win-total ladder (KXNFLWINS) year-round, so there is a live model-vs-market read on every team well before Week 1.
NFL Futures Markets
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale