2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 6 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 6 game priced against the live prediction market.
NFL Win Total Futures Edges
Board as of · prices live
2026 season · 10,000-season simulation vs. the Kalshi KXNFLWINS ladder · All 32 teams
Win-total markets are live now on Kalshi · refreshed daily as the model and market move.
| Team | Proj Wins | Contract | Mkt E[W] | Over Prob | Price | Edge | Win gap ↓ | Tier | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Giants | 9.5 | 7+ | 7.61 | 91.1% | 64¢ | +6.8pp | +0.48w | LOW | Trade |
 Falcons | 8.1 | 10+ | — | 27.2% | 20¢ | +1.8pp | -0.48w | LOW | Trade |
 Bills | 10.9 | 13+ | 12.40 | 24.8% | 52¢ | -6.8pp | -0.36w | LOW | Trade |
 Texans | 7.9 | 10+ | 9.23 | 22.7% | 47¢ | -6.0pp | -0.34w | LOW | Trade |
 Chiefs | 10.5 | 12+ | 11.79 | 33.7% | 57¢ | -5.8pp | -0.33w | LOW | Trade |
 Rams | 9.1 | 11+ | 10.37 | 27.1% | 53¢ | -6.5pp | -0.33w | LOW | Trade |
 Eagles | 8.2 | 8+ | 7.11 | 61.3% | 42¢ | +5.0pp | +0.26w | LOW | Trade |
 Cowboys | 7.7 | 9+ | 8.77 | 36.1% | 55¢ | -4.6pp | -0.26w | LOW | Trade |
Showing 8 of 30 — free, always.
Pro opens the full board, plus edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, the cross-market scanner and agent access over MCP. 26% off your first year ($111) — code applies automatically, ends Dec 31.
Proj Wins — mean of our 10,000-season simulation (the same number on every team page and the win-totals board) · Contract — the Kalshi KXNFLWINS rung trading nearest 50¢ (“10+” = at least 10 wins); the contract a trader actually buys, not the line · Mkt E[W] — the market line: expected wins implied by the whole 17-rung ladder · Over Prob — our probability the team clears the contract · Edge — that probability minus the Kalshi price, in points · Win gap — Proj Wins minus Mkt E[W], in wins, the column the Tier is graded on: STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0 · LOW below. A 1-win disagreement near a 50¢ contract reads as ~20 points of Edge, which is why the Tier does not follow the Edge column.
NFL season leaders: Kalshi vs Polymarket, widest gaps
Updated Oct 18, 4:20 PM ETThe same player, the same season-long question, two prediction-market prices. Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the Polymarket mid in cents — where the two venues disagree most on who leads the league or wins the award.
| Player · market | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan LovePassing yards leader | 7.5¢ | 3.4¢ | +4.1¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Joe BurrowPassing touchdowns leader | 15.5¢ | 19.5¢ | -4.0¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Derrick HenryRushing touchdowns leader | 26.5¢ | 22.5¢ | +4.0¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Jared GoffPassing yards leader | 13.5¢ | 16.5¢ | -3.0¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| James Cook IIIRushing yards leader | 11.0¢ | 14.0¢ | -3.0¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving yards leader | 3.5¢ | 6.5¢ | -3.0¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| CeeDee LambReceiving yards leader | 12.0¢ | 9.3¢ | +2.7¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Derrick HenryRushing yards leader | 8.5¢ | 11.0¢ | -2.5¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving touchdowns leader | 16.5¢ | 14.0¢ | +2.5¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Patrick MahomesPassing yards leader | 3.5¢ | 5.7¢ | -2.2¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
Full season-leader board — 156 players priced on both venues across 9 markets →
Polymarket prices are from the international book. Polymarket US is a separate exchange with its own order book — verify the price there before taking a position.
Team strength behind the win-total edges
Proj Wins is a 10,000-season sim off PWR. All 32 power ratings ranked, with tier and week-over-week movement — the number the ladder edge is built on.
NFL futures on prediction markets — FAQ
What are NFL futures markets on Kalshi?
NFL futures are season-long yes/no contracts on outcomes like the Super Bowl champion, conference and division winners, and award races. Kalshi lists them under the KXNFL family and they trade year-round to traders in all 50 states. Each contract settles at $1 if it hits and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market-implied probability.
How do prediction-market Super Bowl odds differ from a sportsbook?
A sportsbook futures price bakes in heavy vig — the hold on long-shot futures is often 30%+. A prediction-market contract has no house margin: the price is a direct probability. We compare each Kalshi price to our DAEPA power-rating model and flag the gap, so you see where the market favorite is over- or under-priced versus the model.
When do NFL win-total futures update?
Daily. The board refreshes each morning as the season simulation and Kalshi prices move. Kalshi posts the season win-total ladder (KXNFLWINS) year-round, so there is a live model-vs-market read on every team well before Week 1. The projected wins here are the mean of our 10,000-season simulation — the same figure on every team page and the win-totals board — and the tier is graded on the gap in wins between that mean and the ladder-implied market line, not on the percentage-point edge of a single contract.
NFL Futures Markets
- NFL Week 6 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 5 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Will Derrick Henry score a TD? Live Kalshi odds → — Henry anytime TD, 2+ TDs and rushing-yard prices for every Ravens game, plus his TD record vs the market
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale