Gridiron Edge refreshes May 1 with 2026 season rosters
In the meantime, check the NFL Draft board — live Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings odds for every top pick.
NFL Win Total Futures Edges
2026 season · Monte Carlo simulation vs. Kalshi lines · All 32 teams
Futures markets open in July/August. Refreshed weekly once Kalshi posts lines.
| Team | Sim Wins | Line | Over Prob | Market Price | Edge ↓ | Tier | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Giants | 8.0 | 3.0 | 99.8% | — | +99.8pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Cardinals | 7.0 | 6.0 | 77.3% | 22¢ | +55.4pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Dolphins | 7.0 | 5.0 | 91.8% | 42¢ | +49.8pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Jets | 7.0 | 4.0 | 95.9% | 59¢ | +36.9pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Colts | 9.0 | 6.0 | 95.7% | 63¢ | +32.6pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Jaguars | 10.0 | 8.0 | 88.5% | 57¢ | +31.6pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Browns | 8.0 | 6.0 | 85.5% | 54¢ | +31.6pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Ravens | 8.0 | 11.0 | 15.3% | 46¢ | -30.6pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Falcons | 8.0 | 7.0 | 82.8% | 55¢ | +27.8pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Rams | 10.0 | 12.0 | 19.1% | 46¢ | -26.9pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Saints | 8.0 | 6.0 | 92.2% | 66¢ | +26.1pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Buccaneers | 9.0 | 6.0 | 94.5% | 69¢ | +25.6pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Panthers | 8.0 | 7.0 | 78.0% | 53¢ | +25.1pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Lions | 9.0 | 11.0 | 27.3% | 52¢ | -24.8pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Bengals | 9.0 | 12.0 | 7.3% | 31¢ | -23.7pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Patriots | 10.0 | 8.0 | 89.5% | 66¢ | +23.6pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Titans | 7.0 | 5.0 | 86.5% | 63¢ | +23.4pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Bills | 10.0 | 12.0 | 16.8% | 40¢ | -23.3pp | STRONG | Trade |
 49ers | 9.0 | 11.0 | 23.0% | 46¢ | -23.0pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Steelers | 8.0 | 6.0 | 87.3% | 66¢ | +21.3pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Chargers | 9.0 | 11.0 | 15.3% | 36¢ | -20.7pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Seahawks | 10.0 | 8.0 | 91.6% | 71¢ | +20.6pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Chiefs | 9.0 | 11.0 | 17.4% | 38¢ | -20.6pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Texans | 9.0 | 6.0 | 96.3% | 77¢ | +19.3pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Broncos | 9.0 | 11.0 | 21.3% | 40¢ | -18.8pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Cowboys | 9.0 | 6.0 | 95.3% | 77¢ | +18.3pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Bears | 9.0 | 11.0 | 17.8% | 36¢ | -18.2pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Packers | 9.0 | 7.0 | 91.0% | 73¢ | +18.1pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Commanders | 8.0 | 6.0 | 87.9% | 70¢ | +17.9pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Vikings | 8.0 | 6.0 | 90.8% | 73¢ | +17.9pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Eagles | 9.0 | 11.0 | 22.9% | 40¢ | -17.1pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Raiders | 6.0 | 3.0 | 98.8% | 83¢ | +15.8pp | STRONG | Trade |
Sim Wins — median wins from Monte Carlo simulation · Line — Kalshi win total line · Over Prob — model P(team goes OVER line) · Edge — model prob minus Kalshi price