2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 1 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 1 game priced against the live prediction market.
NFL Win Total Futures Edges
2026 season · Full-schedule model projection vs. Kalshi lines · All 32 teams
Win-total markets are live now on Kalshi · refreshed daily as the model and market move.
| Team | Proj Wins | Line | Over Prob | Market Price | Edge ↓ | Tier | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ravens | 8.7 | 11.0 | 24.3% | 59¢ | -34.2pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Cardinals | 6.2 | 4.0 | 86.8% | 57¢ | +30.3pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Jets | 7.3 | 6.0 | 76.1% | 46¢ | +30.1pp | MODERATE | Trade |
 Dolphins | 6.5 | 4.0 | 89.2% | 61¢ | +28.7pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Browns | 7.5 | 6.0 | 78.3% | 50¢ | +28.3pp | HIGH | Trade |
 Chiefs | 8.3 | 10.0 | 31.9% | 56¢ | -23.6pp | HIGH | Trade |
 Chargers | 8.5 | 10.0 | 35.5% | 57¢ | -21.0pp | MODERATE | Trade |
 Vikings | 7.5 | 9.0 | 34.4% | 54¢ | -19.1pp | HIGH | Trade |
 Patriots | 11.0 | 10.0 | 73.9% | 57¢ | +16.9pp | LOW | Trade |
 49ers | 9.0 | 11.0 | 27.9% | 44¢ | -15.6pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Bengals | 9.0 | 11.0 | 28.1% | 44¢ | -15.4pp | STRONG | Trade |
 Lions | 9.8 | 11.0 | 39.5% | 54¢ | -14.5pp | MODERATE | Trade |
 Colts | 8.7 | 8.0 | 67.5% | 53¢ | +14.5pp | LOW | Trade |
 Bills | 9.7 | 11.0 | 38.3% | 53¢ | -14.2pp | MODERATE | Trade |
 Raiders | 5.5 | 7.0 | 32.8% | 47¢ | -13.7pp | MODERATE | Trade |
 Rams | 10.9 | 12.0 | 41.7% | 54¢ | -12.3pp | MODERATE | Trade |
 Falcons | 8.1 | 8.0 | 59.0% | 47¢ | +12.0pp | LOW | Trade |
 Panthers | 7.9 | 8.0 | 55.4% | 44¢ | +11.4pp | LOW | Trade |
 Broncos | 9.1 | 10.0 | 44.1% | 56¢ | -11.4pp | LOW | Trade |
 Eagles | 9.5 | 11.0 | 36.4% | 47¢ | -10.6pp | MODERATE | Trade |
 Jaguars | 9.8 | 10.0 | 56.0% | 46¢ | +10.5pp | LOW | Trade |
 Buccaneers | 8.6 | 8.0 | 66.1% | 57¢ | +9.1pp | LOW | Trade |
 Giants | 7.2 | 8.0 | 45.1% | 53¢ | -7.3pp | LOW | Trade |
 Bears | 8.8 | 10.0 | 40.2% | 48¢ | -7.3pp | MODERATE | Trade |
 Texans | 9.3 | 10.0 | 47.5% | 54¢ | -6.0pp | LOW | Trade |
 Packers | 9.5 | 10.0 | 50.2% | 55¢ | -4.8pp | LOW | Trade |
 Saints | 8.2 | 8.0 | 60.3% | 56¢ | +4.8pp | LOW | Trade |
 Titans | 6.6 | 7.0 | 50.1% | 46¢ | +4.7pp | LOW | Trade |
 Cowboys | 9.3 | 10.0 | 47.0% | 52¢ | -4.5pp | LOW | Trade |
 Commanders | 7.7 | 8.0 | 52.9% | 56¢ | -3.1pp | LOW | Trade |
 Steelers | 7.8 | 8.0 | 53.4% | 56¢ | -2.6pp | LOW | Trade |
 Seahawks | 10.5 | 11.0 | 51.6% | 50¢ | +1.6pp | LOW | Trade |
Proj Wins — model expected wins (exact, full-schedule) · Line — Kalshi win total line · Over Prob — model P(team goes OVER line) · Edge — model prob minus Kalshi price
NFL futures on prediction markets — FAQ
What are NFL futures markets on Kalshi?
NFL futures are season-long yes/no contracts on outcomes like the Super Bowl champion, conference and division winners, and award races. Kalshi lists them under the KXNFL family and they trade year-round to traders in all 50 states. Each contract settles at $1 if it hits and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market-implied probability.
How do prediction-market Super Bowl odds differ from a sportsbook?
A sportsbook futures price bakes in heavy vig — the hold on long-shot futures is often 30%+. A prediction-market contract has no house margin: the price is a direct probability. We compare each Kalshi price to our DAEPA power-rating model and flag the gap, so you see where the market favorite is over- or under-priced versus the model.
When do NFL win-total futures update?
Continuously. The board refreshes daily through the off-season and intraday once the season starts, as power ratings and Kalshi prices move. Kalshi posts the season win-total ladder (KXNFLWINS) year-round, so there is a live model-vs-market read on every team well before Week 1.
NFL Futures Markets
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale