New York Giants vs Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 29, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Colts by 3.5 in New York Giants vs Indianapolis Colts, NFL Week 12 2026 — 60% to win, and a 3-day rest edge for the Colts, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NYGIND yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Colts at 55c or below (or Giants at 35c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NYG
-1.0
IND
-0.1
Giants
40%
model win prob
Colts
60%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NYGINDhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Colts at 55c or below, or the Giants at 35c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Rest first, ratings second: Giants at Colts
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Colts come in with 3 more days off than the other side — 10 days' rest for the Colts against 7 days' rest for the Giants. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Colts by 3.5 (60%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 3-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Giants come in off the Jaguars, the Colts off the Texans. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Colts offense grades +0.9 (14th of 32) against a Giants defense at -2.1 (26th) — 3.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Giants offense (+1.0, 12th) meets the Colts defense (-1.7, 23rd), a 2.7-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Colts +0.6 (9th of 32) to +0.1 (29th).
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.6 projected wins for the Colts against 7.7 for the Giants, favored in 10 and 6 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 15th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Giants'.
Recent history, for context only: 7 regular-season meetings since 2002, 4-3 in the Colts' favour. They last met in 2024: Giants won 45-33 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Colts are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Colts at 60% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NYGIND, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Colts 60%, Giants 40%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Colts contracts a buy at 55c or below and Giants contracts a buy at 35c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Giants vs Colts — frequently asked
Who is favored in Giants vs Colts in Week 12?
Our power-rating model favors the Colts by 3.5 points, a 60% win probability over the Giants. The Colts rate 15th of 32 (-0.1) and the Giants 22nd (-1.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NYGIND yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Colts have 3 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 3.5-point line or the 60% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Giants vs Colts?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NYGIND on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Colts at 55c or below, or the Giants at 35c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Colts host the Giants?
New York Giants visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, November 29, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 12, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.
What does the model project for the Colts and Giants this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Colts at 8.6 wins (favored in 10) and the Giants at 7.7 (favored in 6). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Giants', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 60% on a team like the Colts?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Colts at 60% over the Giants sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.