New York Giants vs Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 29, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Giants
37%
model win prob
Colts
63%
model win prob
Model line
Colts −4.5
Kalshi (Colts)
—
Edge
pending
Model favors the Colts — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff
KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.
Power-rating comparison
The prediction-market read
In Week 12, the New York Giants travel to face the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Colts 13th of 32 (Average tier, +0.7) and the Giants 25th (Average tier, -1.1). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Colts by 4.5 — a 63% win probability for the Colts.
Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 63% (Colts) / 37% (Giants) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Giants vs Colts — frequently asked
Who is favored in Giants vs Colts in Week 12?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Colts by 4.5 points and gives them a 63% win probability over the Giants. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.
What does the model project for Giants vs Colts?
Home win probability 63% (Colts), away 37% (Giants). That comes from a power-rating differential of +1.9 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Colts rate 13th of 32 (Average tier), the Giants 25th (Average tier).
Can you trade Giants vs Colts on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where do the Colts host the Giants?
New York Giants visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, November 29, 2026 in NFL Week 12, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.