Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction — Week 8, Sun Nov 1
Updated · market price
Week 8 game-week updates
- · Lines: Chiefs −1.5 is the median across 9 books, moved from Broncos −1.5 on the earliest line we archived (DraftKings, Sep 13).
- · Kalshi: Broncos 48¢ to win, −15¢ since the market opened October 20, 2026.
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Quick Answer
As of October 28, 2026, Kalshi implies 48% for the Broncos in Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos, NFL Week 8 2026, while the market line has the Chiefs by 1.5 (55% to win) — a 2.8pp gap. Our model is far enough from the market here that it is more likely our ratings than the price — market line shown, no position.
Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →
Week 8 · 2026-10-28No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Chiefs vs Broncos: where the prop prices are How prop price gaps work →
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — our Oracle calls are the opinion.
No Kalshi strike in this game is 5¢+ off the sportsbooks right now — the market agrees with itself.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 200+ pass yds | 52.5¢ | 53.5%3bk | -1.0¢ | over · ESPN Bet 54.5¢under · Novig 48.1¢ |
| Bo Nix | 15+ rush yds | 53.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Novig 58¢ |
| Bo Nix | 25+ rush yds | 26.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 32.5¢ |
| Bo Nix | 30+ rush yds | 20.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · ProphetX 24.7¢ |
| Cyrus Allen | anytime TD | 7.5¢ | — | one-sided | over · Kalshi 8.5¢under · Kalshi 93.5¢ |
| DEN Broncos D/ST | anytime TD | 13.5¢ | — | one-sided | over · Kalshi 15.9¢ |
| J.K. Dobbins | 40+ rush yds | 26.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 30.4¢ |
| Jonah Coleman | anytime TD | 30.5¢ | — | one-sided | over · Novig 31¢under · Kalshi 71.5¢ |
See all 26 priced prop strikes for this game on the board →+ 108 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
KC
+0.4
DEN
+1.8
No position on this one — the call is withheld (the read above says why). Get the full Week 8 card free, every game priced against the market.
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The model's own number is under review on this game; the market line is the only line published.
Market-anchored fair value: KC 55% (+2.7pp) Combo Edge Builder →
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
53%
Madden 27
47%
Madden 27
Run the numbers yourself
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
The Ladder — Chiefs at Broncos How to read the Ladder →
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi prices Broncos +1.5 at 52¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- −16.5Broncos——
- −14.5Broncos—outside band
- −13.5Broncos—outside band
- −10.5Broncos—outside band
- −9.5Broncos—outside band
- −7.5Broncos—outside band
- −6.5Broncos—outside band
- −5.5Broncos——
- −4.5Broncos——
- −3.5Broncos——
- −2.5Broncos——
- −1.5Broncos——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects +0.7
- +1.5Broncos——
- +2.5Broncos——
- +3.5Broncos——
- +4.5Broncos——
- +5.5Broncos——
- +6.5Broncos——
- +7.5Broncos—outside band
- +9.5Broncos—outside band
- +10.5Broncos—outside band
- +13.5Broncos—outside band
- +14.5Broncos—outside band
- +16.5Broncos—outside band
Priced. The market and the model tell the same story at every rung.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Chiefs vs Broncos power ratings (Week 8) What PWR measures →
Chiefs and Broncos season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Chiefs vs Broncos player props What YES, NO and the tier mean →
Our projection against the live Kalshi contract. Every prop is an “X or more” contract that pays $1 if the player gets there, so the price of the side we call, in cents,is the market’s implied probability — the edge is the gap between that and ours, in percentage points. Closest strike to our projection first.
| Player | Contract | Call | Our odds | Mkt | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonah ColemanRB | 20+ rush ydsover 19.5 | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE |
All 12 player-prop edges for Week 8 →Locked numbers are Pro.
Chiefs vs Broncos — player pages
All players →One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
The market line: Chiefs at Broncos
Our model is far enough from the market here that it is more likely our ratings than the price — market line shown, no position.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN contract implies 48% for the Broncos against a fair value (books) of 45% — a 2.8-point gap. Our model is far enough from the market here that it is more likely our ratings than the price — market line shown, no position.
Full division picture on the AFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Chiefs vs Broncos on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN
- Market-implied (Broncos)
- 48c · 48%
- Fair value — books (Broncos)
- 45%
- Fair value vs market
- -2.8pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 48c on the Broncos is an implied 48% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 45%, a 2.8pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Chiefs vs Broncos line history
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 13, had the Broncos −1.5 (DraftKings). The median across 9 books now is the Chiefs −1.5. On Kalshi the Chiefs trade at 53¢ to win, a 53% implied chance.
| Book | Earliest line we archived | Now | Spread trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Broncos −1.5 · O/U 43.5Sep 13 | Chiefs −1.5 · O/U 40.5 | |
| FanDuel | Chiefs −1.5 · O/U 42.5Oct 20 | Chiefs −1.5 · O/U 40.5 | |
| BetMGM | Chiefs −1.5 · O/U 42.5Oct 26 | Chiefs −1.5 · O/U 40.5 | |
| Caesars | Broncos −1.5 · O/U 42.5Sep 13 | Chiefs −1.5 · O/U 40.5 | |
| BetRivers | Chiefs −2 · O/U 42.5Oct 20 | Chiefs −1.5 · O/U 40.5 | |
| ESPN BET | Chiefs −1.5 · O/U 41.5Oct 26 | Chiefs −1.5 · O/U 40.5 | |
| Fanatics | Chiefs −1.5 · O/U 41Oct 26 | Chiefs −1.5 · O/U 40.5 | |
| Novig | Chiefs −1.5 · O/U 42.5Oct 20 | Chiefs −1.5 · O/U 40.5 | |
| ProphetX | Chiefs −1.5 · —Oct 26 | Chiefs −1.5 · O/U 40.5 | |
| Kalshi | a contract, not a spread | Chiefs 53¢ to win |
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. “Earliest line we archived” is our first capture, which is not necessarily the market’s open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchange’s own moneyline contract.
Where Chiefs vs Broncos trades Why the venues differ →
3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Broncos | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 48% 48c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 48% 48c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket.com (international) | no captured price for this game — international book | Informational |
| Polymarket USPolymarketPartnerUS exchange — separate book | 48% 48c | Open Polymarket US → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 48% 48c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 48% 48c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Chiefs at Broncos
Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 4:10 PM ET
| Game lines | Kalshi4:10 PM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner4:36 PM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs to win | 53¢54.7¢ after fees | 52.5¢54.2¢ after fees | Even |
| Broncos to win | 48¢49.7¢ after fees | 47.8¢49.5¢ after fees | Even |
| Chiefs −1.5 | 49¢50.7¢ after fees | 49¢50.7¢ after fees | Even |
| Over 40.5 | 51¢52.7¢ after fees | 49.5¢51.2¢ after fees | Polymarket US1.5¢ less |
| Player props on both venues | |||
| J.K. Dobbins 40+ rush yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Jonah Coleman anytime TD | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Patrick Mahomes anytime TD | no current price | 15¢15.9¢ after fees | — |
| Travis Kelce 30+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Travis Kelce anytime TD | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Jonah Coleman 20+ rush yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Jonah Coleman 40+ rush yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Kenneth Walker III anytime TD | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
Sponsored by Polymarket US
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Polymarket US lists 446 other markets for this game that we haven’t matched to a Kalshi contract (first half spread, second half spread, full game spread, second quarter total, full game total).
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question: the same team, the same line, the same player, stat and threshold. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
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Watch the breakdown: Chiefs vs Broncos
Chiefs vs Broncos — frequently asked
Who will win Broncos vs Chiefs?
The market line has the Chiefs at 55% to beat the Broncos in Week 8.
Who is favored in Chiefs vs Broncos in Week 8?
The market line has the Chiefs by 1.5 points, a 55% win probability over the Broncos. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN market implies 48% for the Broncos — a 2.8pp gap versus the market line.
How much does a AFC West result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 1. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Broncos by 4 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Chiefs vs Broncos?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Broncos YES is quoted around 48c against a fair value (books) of 45%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Broncos host the Chiefs?
Kansas City Chiefs visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday, November 1, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 8, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.
What does the model project for the Broncos and Chiefs this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 10.9 wins (favored in 13) and the Chiefs at 10.6 (favored in 10). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Chiefs', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Chiefs vs Broncos?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN. The Broncos YES contract sits around 48c, which is an implied 48% — against our books-anchored fair value of 45%. That is a 2.8pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Chiefs vs Broncos on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 8 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if Chiefs vs Broncos ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
Is Chiefs moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 55% against a market price implying 53%, an edge of +2.8 points. Model 55% vs market 53% on KC — call withheld (model under review). We pass — no position.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 8 card, market price vs our number. Free.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 1. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Chiefs–Broncos, Week 1 →
After this one
More Week 8 matchups
Panthers at PackersModel: Packers −5
Ravens at BillsModel: Bills −3.5
Titans at BengalsModel: Bengals −9.5
Cardinals at CowboysModel: Cowboys −6.5
Vikings at LionsModel: Lions −2.5
Colts at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −7
Raiders at JetsModel: Jets −4
Browns at SteelersModel: Steelers −3
Falcons at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −3.5
Chargers at RamsModel: Rams −8.5
Patriots at DolphinsModel: Patriots −5
Eagles at CommandersModel: Commanders −7
Bears at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −3.5Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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