Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Broncos by 4 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos, NFL Week 8 2026 — 62% to win, and the second AFC West meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Broncos at 57c or below (or Chiefs at 33c or below) is where the model would take a position.
KC
-0.5
DEN
+1.2
Chiefs
38%
model win prob
Broncos
62%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDENhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Broncos at 57c or below, or the Chiefs at 33c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Chiefs and Broncos already played in Week 1, and now the Chiefs make the return trip in Week 8. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: +1.2 against -0.5, plus home field, equals the Broncos by 4 (62%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Broncos offense grades +0.6 (16th of 32) against a Chiefs defense at -0.8 (18th) — 1.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Chiefs offense (-0.1, 20th) meets the Broncos defense (+0.4, 8th), a 0.4-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 1, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC West race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.0 projected wins for the Broncos against 8.2 for the Chiefs, favored in 9 and 8 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 14th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Chiefs'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 25-23 in the Chiefs' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Broncos won 20-13 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Broncos are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 62% on the Broncos here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Broncos 62%, Chiefs 38%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Broncos contracts a buy at 57c or below and Chiefs contracts a buy at 33c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Chiefs vs Broncos — frequently asked
Who is favored in Chiefs vs Broncos in Week 8?
Our power-rating model favors the Broncos by 4 points, a 62% win probability over the Chiefs. The Broncos rate 13th of 32 (+1.2) and the Chiefs 20th (-0.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC West result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 1. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Broncos by 4 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Chiefs vs Broncos?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Broncos at 57c or below, or the Chiefs at 33c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Broncos host the Chiefs?
Kansas City Chiefs visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday, November 1, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 8, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.
What does the model project for the Broncos and Chiefs this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 9.0 wins (favored in 9) and the Chiefs at 8.2 (favored in 8). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Chiefs', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 62% on a team like the Broncos?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Broncos at 62% over the Chiefs sit in that band, off a 4-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 1. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Chiefs–Broncos, Week 1 →
More Week 8 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.