Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Broncos by 4.5 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos, NFL Week 8 2026 — 63% to win, and the second AFC West meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Broncos at 58c or below (or Chiefs at 32c or below) is where the model would take a position.
KC
-0.6
DEN
+1.2
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Chiefs
37%
model win prob
Broncos
63%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
53%
Madden 27
47%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Broncos at 58c or below, or the Chiefs at 32c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Chiefs at Broncos
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Broncos −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Chiefs and Broncos already played in Week 1, and now the Chiefs make the return trip in Week 8. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: +1.2 against -0.6, plus home field, equals the Broncos by 4.5 (63%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Broncos offense grades +0.6 (16th of 32) against a Chiefs defense at -0.8 (18th) — 1.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Chiefs offense (-0.2, 20th) meets the Broncos defense (+0.4, 8th), a 0.6-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 1, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC West race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.1 projected wins for the Broncos against 8.2 for the Chiefs, favored in 9 and 9 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 14th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Chiefs'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 25-23 in the Chiefs' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Broncos won 20-13 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Broncos are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 63% on the Broncos here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Broncos 63%, Chiefs 37%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Broncos contracts a buy at 58c or below and Chiefs contracts a buy at 32c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Chiefs vs Broncos on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN
- Market-implied (Broncos)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Broncos)
- 63%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Broncos at 58c or below, or the Chiefs at 32c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Chiefs vs Broncos trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Broncos | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Chiefs vs Broncos — frequently asked
Who is favored in Chiefs vs Broncos in Week 8?
Our power-rating model picks the Broncos by 4.5 points, a 63% win probability over the Chiefs, for a projected score of Broncos 25, Chiefs 20 on a ratings-implied 44.9-point total. The Broncos rate 12th of 32 (+1.2) and the Chiefs 20th (-0.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC West result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 1. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Broncos by 4.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Chiefs vs Broncos?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Broncos at 58c or below, or the Chiefs at 32c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Broncos host the Chiefs?
Kansas City Chiefs visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday, November 1, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 8, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.
What does the model project for the Broncos and Chiefs this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 9.1 wins (favored in 9) and the Chiefs at 8.2 (favored in 9). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Chiefs', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Chiefs vs Broncos?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Broncos at 58c or below or the Chiefs at 32c or below, off a 4.5-point line.
Can you trade Chiefs vs Broncos on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 8 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01KCDEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 63% on a team like the Broncos?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Broncos at 63% over the Chiefs sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 1. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Chiefs–Broncos, Week 1 →
More Week 8 matchups
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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