Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, December 27, 2026 · AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Jaguars

48%

model win prob

Cowboys

52%

model win prob

Model line

Cowboys −0.5

Kalshi (Cowboys)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Cowboys — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Jacksonville Jaguars+2.74thPlayoff

Dallas Cowboys+0.911thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 16, the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to face the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Cowboys 11th of 32 (Average tier, +0.9) and the Jaguars 4th (Playoff tier, +2.7). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Cowboys by 0.5 — a 52% win probability for the Cowboys.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 52% (Cowboys) / 48% (Jaguars) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Jaguars vs Cowboys — frequently asked

Who is favored in Jaguars vs Cowboys in Week 16?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Cowboys by 0.5 points and gives them a 52% win probability over the Jaguars. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Jaguars vs Cowboys?

Home win probability 52% (Cowboys), away 48% (Jaguars). That comes from a power-rating differential of -1.8 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Cowboys rate 11th of 32 (Average tier), the Jaguars 4th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Jaguars vs Cowboys on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.