Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, December 27, 2026 · AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Cowboys by 1.5 in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys, NFL Week 16 2026 — 55% to win, and Cowboys 11th of 32, Jaguars 6th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27JACDAL yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Cowboys at 50c or below (or Jaguars at 40c or below) is where the model would take a position.
JAX
+2.6
DAL
+1.4
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Jaguars
45%
model win prob
Cowboys
55%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
29%
Madden 27
71%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC27JACDAL hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Cowboys at 50c or below, or the Jaguars at 40c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Jaguars at Cowboys
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Cowboys −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Cowboys −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Cowboys −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Cowboys −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Cowboys −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Cowboys −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Cowboys −9.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
3 more rungsCowboys −10.5 → Cowboys −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Jaguars at Cowboys
The Jaguars travel to face the Cowboys in Week 16. Our power ratings put the Cowboys 11th of 32 at +1.4 (Playoff tier) and the Jaguars 6th at +2.6 (Playoff tier) — a 1.2-point gap that home field widens to a 1.5-point line on the Cowboys, 55% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 16.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.7 (9th of 32) against a Cowboys defense at -3.5 (32nd) — 5.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cowboys offense (+4.1, 3rd) meets the Jaguars defense (0.0, 9th), a 4.1-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.8 projected wins for the Cowboys against 9.4 for the Jaguars, favored in 11 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 10th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Jaguars'.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Jaguars won 40-34 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Cowboys are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Cowboys at 55% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC27JACDAL is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 55% / 45% — the tradable window is narrow: Cowboys at 50c or below, Jaguars at 40c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jaguars vs Cowboys on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC27JACDAL
- Market-implied (Cowboys)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Cowboys)
- 55%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27JACDAL yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Cowboys at 50c or below, or the Jaguars at 40c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Jaguars vs Cowboys trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Cowboys | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Jaguars vs Cowboys — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jaguars vs Cowboys in Week 16?
Our power-rating model picks the Cowboys by 1.5 points, a 55% win probability over the Jaguars, for a projected score of Cowboys 28, Jaguars 26 on a ratings-implied 53.3-point total. The Cowboys rate 11th of 32 (+1.4) and the Jaguars 6th (+2.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27JACDAL yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Jaguars vs Cowboys?
Jaguars offense (+1.7, 9th of 32) against Cowboys defense (-3.5, 32nd) — 5.2 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Jaguars vs Cowboys?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC27JACDAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cowboys at 50c or below, or the Jaguars at 40c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Cowboys host the Jaguars?
Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, December 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 16, at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX.
What does the model project for the Cowboys and Jaguars this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cowboys at 8.8 wins (favored in 11) and the Jaguars at 9.4 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Jaguars', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Jaguars vs Cowboys?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27JACDAL yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Cowboys at 50c or below or the Jaguars at 40c or below, off a 1.5-point line.
Can you trade Jaguars vs Cowboys on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 16 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC27JACDAL. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 55% on a team like the Cowboys?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Cowboys at 55% over the Jaguars sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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