Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, December 27, 2026 · AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Cowboys by 1.5 in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys, NFL Week 16 2026 — 54% to win, and Cowboys 11th of 32, Jaguars 6th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27JACDAL yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Cowboys at 49c or below (or Jaguars at 41c or below) is where the model would take a position.
JAX
+2.7
DAL
+1.5
Jaguars
46%
model win prob
Cowboys
54%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC27JACDALhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Cowboys at 49c or below, or the Jaguars at 41c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in Jaguars at Cowboys
The Jaguars travel to face the Cowboys in Week 16. Our power ratings put the Cowboys 11th of 32 at +1.5 (Average tier) and the Jaguars 6th at +2.7 (Playoff tier) — a 1.2-point gap that home field widens to a 1.5-point line on the Cowboys, 54% to win. It rates as the 11th-widest of the 16 games in Week 16.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.8 (9th of 32) against a Cowboys defense at -3.2 (32nd) — 5.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cowboys offense (+3.9, 3rd) meets the Jaguars defense (0.0, 9th), a 3.9-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.8 projected wins for the Cowboys against 9.5 for the Jaguars, favored in 11 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 10th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Jaguars'.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Jaguars won 40-34 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Cowboys are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Cowboys at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC27JACDAL is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 54% / 46% — the tradable window is narrow: Cowboys at 49c or below, Jaguars at 41c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jaguars vs Cowboys — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jaguars vs Cowboys in Week 16?
Our power-rating model favors the Cowboys by 1.5 points, a 54% win probability over the Jaguars. The Cowboys rate 11th of 32 (+1.5) and the Jaguars 6th (+2.7); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27JACDAL yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Jaguars vs Cowboys?
Jaguars offense (+1.8, 9th of 32) against Cowboys defense (-3.2, 32nd) — 5.0 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Jaguars vs Cowboys?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC27JACDAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cowboys at 49c or below, or the Jaguars at 41c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Cowboys host the Jaguars?
Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, December 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 16, at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX.
What does the model project for the Cowboys and Jaguars this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cowboys at 8.8 wins (favored in 11) and the Jaguars at 9.5 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Jaguars', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 54% on a team like the Cowboys?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Cowboys at 54% over the Jaguars sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.