Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Chargers by 1 in Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers, NFL Week 5 2026 — 53% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 1.6 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DENLAC yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Chargers at 48c or below (or Broncos at 42c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DEN
+1.2
LAC
-0.4
Broncos
47%
model win prob
Chargers
53%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DENLAChasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Chargers at 48c or below, or the Broncos at 42c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Broncos–Chargers is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Broncos rate +1.2 (13th of 32) against -0.4 for the Chargers (17th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.6-point gap between them, so the model lands at 53% for the Chargers anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 5th-closest of the 15 games in Week 5, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.2 projected wins for the Chargers against 9.0 for the Broncos, favored in 9 and 9 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 11th-hardest on the Chargers' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Broncos'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Broncos grade +0.4 on that side of the ball (8th of 32) against a Chargers offense at -0.7 (22nd) — 1.0 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Chargers defense (-0.1, 10th), a 0.7-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC West race.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 27-21 in the Broncos' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Broncos won 19-3 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Chargers are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Chargers at 53% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DENLAC is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 53% / 47% — the tradable window is narrow: Chargers at 48c or below, Broncos at 42c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Broncos vs Chargers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Broncos vs Chargers in Week 5?
Our power-rating model favors the Chargers by 1 points, a 53% win probability over the Broncos. The Chargers rate 17th of 32 (-0.4) and the Broncos 13th (+1.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DENLAC yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Chargers (-0.4, 17th) and Broncos (+1.2, 13th) are only 1.6 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 53%/47%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Broncos vs Chargers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DENLAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Chargers at 48c or below, or the Broncos at 42c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Chargers host the Broncos?
Denver Broncos visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.
What does the model project for the Chargers and Broncos this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chargers at 8.2 wins (favored in 9) and the Broncos at 9.0 (favored in 9). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Chargers' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Broncos', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 53% on a team like the Chargers?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Chargers at 53% over the Broncos sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Broncos–Chargers, Week 18 →
More Week 5 matchups
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