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Home/NFL/Week 5/Broncos vs Chargers
Gridiron EdgeWeek 5 · 2026AFC West rivalry

Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17

Final. The rematch: Chargers vs Broncos, Week 18 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 11, 2026): Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 — NFL Week 5, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Broncos by 3.5 (62% to win); the Broncos won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Broncos at 64c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Broncos by 3.5 (62% to win). The Broncos won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Broncos: +1c — we archived the Broncos at 63c on Oct 4; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 64c on Oct 11. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 5 · 2026-10-12

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Chargers moneylineModel 38% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 36% on LAC — kept as the pre-game record.36c38%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Broncos 23, Chargers 17: Justin Herbert was stopped on fourth-and-1, and Denver scored the last 13 points

Denver won 23-17 at SoFi Stadium and left the Chargers 0-5. Los Angeles led 17-10 after Kimani Vidal’s 42-yard touchdown run late in the third quarter, one snap after Tuli Tuipulotu forced and recovered a Bo Nix fumble. Early in the fourth Herbert was stopped for no gain on fourth-and-1 at his own 41, Nix found Courtland Sutton for the tying touchdown five plays later, and Herbert turned the ball over on two of the Chargers’ next three possessions while Wil Lutz kicked two field goals. DraftKings opened the Chargers as 2.5-point favorites and closed with Denver favored by 3; the 40 points finished under both the opening total of 44.5 and the closing 42.5.

Broncos 23—Chargers 17

Final✓ Call hit

The chip reads a hit, and it is the market’s hit, not the model’s. It grades our stored pre-game probability, which had the Chargers at 37.8% and Denver at 62.2% — the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 3.5-point line — and Denver won. The model’s own read was different: Denver by 0.7, a 2.8-point WATCH lean toward the Chargers, and Denver won by six, so the lean was wrong. The posted line walked the other way from the model and toward the winner, from Chargers minus 2.5 at the DraftKings open to Denver minus 3 at the close. The ledger holds no position on this game: a Chargers moneyline row was voided on 2026-10-07, before kickoff, and counts in neither direction. The final pre-kickoff player board carried one PLAY row, Bo Nix UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns at HIGH, the YES at 44.5¢ so the NO cost 55.5¢, with the YES closing at the same 44.5¢; Nix threw one touchdown pass, so it grades a win by the box score. Eleven visible WATCH rows went 9-2, graded apart and never folded into the record. The wins: Nix under 14.5 and 19.5 rushing yards, Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr. and Troy Franklin each over 1.5 catches (two apiece), Evan Engram over 14.5 receiving yards (55), and the Keaton Mitchell under ladder at 19.5, 29.5 and 39.5 rushing yards (he ran for 11). The losses: Nix under 9.5 rushing yards, by half a yard (he ran for 10), and Omarion Hampton over 1.5 catches (one). Three suppressed rows, all Nix passing-yard unders, count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Chargers −2.5 → Broncos −3
Total
44.5 → 42.5
Moneyline
DEN +120 / LAC −142 → DEN −170 / LAC +142

The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 2 to 42.5; the game landed on 40.

How it happened

Q1

A Kolar fumble set up the only touchdown of the first half

On third-and-10 Herbert hit Charlie Kolar for 19 yards, and Talanoa Hufanga forced a fumble that Brandon Jones recovered at the Los Angeles 40. Nix found Engram for 34 yards to the 5, a face-mask penalty moved the ball to the 2, and J.K. Dobbins scored from there. Nobody else reached the end zone before halftime: Cameron Dicker and Lutz traded field goals in the second quarter.

After one
Broncos 7, Chargers 0
Denver’s touchdown drive
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:43
Halftime
Broncos 10, Chargers 3

ESPN — play-by-play

Q3

A 9:28 drive tied it, and a Nix fumble turned into Vidal’s 42-yard run

The Chargers opened the half with 14 plays and 73 yards, Herbert running 23 yards to the Denver 7 on third-and-7 before Hayden Rucci caught a 7-yard touchdown. With 1:15 left in the quarter Tuipulotu stripped Nix on a scramble and recovered at the Denver 42, and Vidal ran the next snap 42 yards for the lead.

Opening drive of the half
14 plays · 73 yds · 9:28 · TD
After three
Chargers 17, Broncos 10

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Herbert was stopped on fourth-and-1, and Nix tied it five plays later

Lutz missed from 42 yards wide left early in the quarter. On the Chargers’ next possession Herbert scrambled eight yards on third-and-9 and then was stopped for no gain by Que Robinson on fourth-and-1 at his own 41. Nix hit Sutton for 13, ran for seven, drew a roughing-the-passer flag, and found Sutton again from five yards to tie it with 8:53 left.

Fourth-and-1
LAC 41 · no gain · 10:33 left
Tying drive
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:34

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Zach Allen’s strip-sack, Lutz from 19, and a Brandon Jones interception on fourth down

Two plays into the Chargers’ next drive Allen sacked Herbert for an 8-yard loss and forced a fumble that Robinson recovered at the Los Angeles 23. Denver reached the 1 and took Lutz’s 19-yard field goal for a 20-17 lead with 5:07 left. Herbert’s fourth-and-6 throw from his own 31 was intercepted by Jones, and Lutz added a 36-yarder with 1:08 left.

Final
Broncos 23, Chargers 17
Nix
16 of 27 · 123 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT · lost fumble
Herbert
14 of 24 · 121 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT · 5 sacks
Dobbins
18 carries · 68 yds · 1 TD
Third down
DEN 1 of 12 · LAC 5 of 14
Turnovers
DEN 1 · LAC 3

ESPN — box score

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. There is no live nfl_weekly_edges row for it (the Chargers moneyline was voided 2026-10-07 and counts for nothing), and the nfl_prop_edges rows on the final pre-kickoff board carried no result when this was written — grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play; the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W5_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-12/prop-reconciliation-w05-sunday.csv), never by hand. entry_price on an UNDER row is the YES price, so that side cost 100 minus it, and no P/L is summed on this page. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The distance of Lutz’s second-quarter field goal is left out: ESPN’s scoring summary and play-by-play have 34 yards and the AP recap has 42.
  • Nix’s under-9.5 rushing row lost by half a yard on a 10-yard day. A stat correction taking one yard away would flip it.
  • Hufanga (ankle) left in the third quarter and did not return, and Tre’ Harris left in the third quarter, per AP; the severity of neither was known when this was published. Per AP, Chargers linebacker Bud Dupree (neck) left in the second quarter and did not return. Denver played without cornerbacks Pat Surtain II (ankle) and Riley Moss (ribs), both listed out.
  • The DraftKings line moved 5.5 points, from the Chargers −2.5 to Denver −3. ESPN’s core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, so this recap does not claim what moved it.

Reporting verified 2026-10-12. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Broncos keep Chargers winless with key stop that fuels 4th-quarter rally in 23-17 win

Los Angeles has lost all three of its tackles, and Justin Herbert is already the second-most pressured quarterback in football

Rashawn Slater is out for multiple weeks, Joe Alt and Trevor Penning both left the Week 4 game hurt, and Herbert was being pressured on 46.5% of his dropbacks before any of that. The Chargers are also 30th in the league at giving up sacks and turnovers. The catch is that Denver’s offense may be no better: they score 18.5 a game and have the fewest first-half points per drive in the NFL.

Broncos pass rush · Chargers pass protection

Three tackles, none of them certain, in front of the league’s second-most-pressured quarterback

Edge: Broncos

This is the game and it is not close to being anything else. Rashawn Slater is expected to miss multiple weeks; Joe Alt and Trevor Penning both left the Week 4 game injured, and on Wednesday Alt (neck), Penning (concussion) and Slater (ankle) were all non-participants along with guard Kayode Awosika (fibula). Herbert was already pressured on 46.5% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league, and Los Angeles gives up 5.5 sacks plus turnovers a game, 30th. The symptoms are visible in the play-calling: pistol usage down to a season-low 1.5% of snaps, the shotgun rate falling every week, and play-action up to a season-high 35.5% in Week 4 — all the things a staff does when it cannot block anyone. Herbert’s yards per attempt have declined in every game this season and he has thrown at least one interception in all four.

Chargers tackles, Wednesday
Slater (ankle), Alt (neck) and Penning (concussion) all non-participants; Slater out multiple weeks
Herbert pressure rate
Pressured on 46.5% of dropbacks — 2nd-highest in the league
Chargers giveaways
5.5 sacks plus turnovers allowed per game (30th) · 31 points allowed off turnovers (t-30th)

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Broncos–Chargers Week 5 worksheet

Broncos offense · game script

Denver cannot start a game either, and that is why this is not a blowout on paper

Close to even

The reason the market has this at only a field goal and change is that Denver’s offense is nearly as broken as the Chargers’ protection. They score 18.5 points a game, 27th, average 0.65 points per drive in first halves — the fewest in the league — and have been outscored 63-35 through three quarters on the season. Only 14.3% of their plays gain ten or more yards, ahead of Arizona and nobody else. Bo Nix is a large part of it: 6.1 yards an attempt, with only Daniel Jones and Jacoby Brissett lower among qualifiers, 5.8 air yards an attempt, and a career-high 25.2% of his throws going at or behind the line of scrimmage while his between-the-numbers rate sits at a career low. He has also stopped scrambling — 2.1% of dropbacks against 5.4% last season and 7.8% as a rookie. A quarterback throwing shorter and running less is a quarterback being protected from something.

Denver first halves
0.65 points per drive — fewest in the NFL; outscored 63-35 through three quarters on the season
Nix efficiency
6.1 Y/A (only Jones and Brissett lower) · 5.8 air yards per attempt · 42.9% completions on throws 10+ yards (26th of 29)
Nix shot profile
Career-high 25.2% of throws at or behind the line · career-low 35.7% between the numbers · scrambles on 2.1% of dropbacks

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Broncos–Chargers Week 5 worksheet

Chargers pass offense · Broncos coverage

The Denver pass defense that would punish all this is missing both starting cornerbacks

Edge: Chargers

Denver allows a 57.5% completion rate, third in the league, and 0.39 passing points per attempt, tenth — and that is the number that makes the tackle story fatal for Los Angeles. Except Patrick Surtain II did not practise Wednesday with an ankle and Riley Moss did not practise with a rib injury, and those are the two players the figure is built on. Zach Allen was also down for rest and Dondrea Tillman was limited with a hamstring, so the pass rush that would convert a broken line into sacks is itself not whole. Denver’s defense also has a structural problem this read should not ignore: they face 67.3 opponent plays a game, 30th in the league, because their own offense cannot stay on the field. A good coverage unit asked to defend seventy plays with backup cornerbacks is a different proposition from a good coverage unit.

Broncos pass defense
57.5% completion rate allowed (3rd) · 0.39 passing points per attempt (10th)
Broncos Wednesday non-participants
Patrick Surtain II (ankle), Riley Moss (ribs), Pat Bryant (ankle); Zach Allen limited (rest)
Workload problem
67.3 opponent plays per game — 30th in the league

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Week 5 practice reports, all 32 teams (2026-10-07)

What this read does not know

  • Our lean points at the Chargers and the reason is almost certainly that our rating cannot see Wednesday’s report. The power ratings were built 2026-10-07 and have Los Angeles 26th in the league already; they do not know that all three tackles were non-participants the next day. The market has moved to Denver. So our disagreement here is not an edge, it is a staleness — and it sits on the home underdog, which is where six of the eight Week 5 leans of two or more points sit. A measured walk-forward found 84% of two-point-plus leans land on the underdog and hit 50.2% against the spread in weeks four to six. We publish no position.
  • Nobody has a game-status designation yet, on either team. Today is Thursday; designations land Friday. This game has more Wednesday non-participants who matter than any other on the slate — three Chargers tackles, both Denver starting cornerbacks — and not one of them is formally ruled out or formally cleared. Friday’s report does not refine this read, it rewrites it.
  • We cannot tell whether Denver’s defensive numbers survive without Surtain and Moss, and we have not tried to re-estimate them. The third-ranked completion rate allowed is a four-game team aggregate built with both starting cornerbacks on the field. Quoting it next to a note that both are hurt is the honest thing to do, but it should not be read as a forecast.
  • Trevor Penning’s concussion is the least predictable of the three tackle absences. Concussion protocol does not run on a schedule and a Wednesday non-participation tells you nothing about Sunday. Of the three he is the one most likely to flip either way between now and the designation.
  • Both offenses are bad enough that the usual pressure-to-points chain may not hold. Denver is 27th in scoring and Los Angeles 29th. A broken Chargers line against a depleted Denver rush, and a short-throwing Denver offense against a depleted Chargers secondary we have barely graded, is the kind of matchup where the model’s margin is a small difference between two large uncertainties. Treat the number as low-information rather than as a close call we understand.
  • Ladd McConkey’s foot is unresolved and he is the Chargers’ best route out of pressure. He did not practise Wednesday and is reported as possibly missing time. A quarterback under pressure on nearly half his dropbacks needs a separator who gets open quickly; without him the play-action-and-hope plan gets thinner.

Reporting verified 2026-10-08. Further sources: Sharp Football Analysis — Broncos–Chargers Week 5 worksheet · Sharp Football Analysis — Week 5 practice reports, all 32 teams (2026-10-07) · Sports Illustrated — Week 5 start ’em, sit ’em quarterbacks (2026-10-07) · Yahoo Sports — 2026 NFL Week 5 injury report (2026-10-06) · CBS Sports — Bo Nix says the ankle will not limit him this season (offseason surgery context) · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Denver Broncos · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Los Angeles Chargers

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 5 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 11
AWAY DEN +1.8
vs DEN -3.5
HOME LAC -3.2
Fair (books) · LAC 38% home win prob
Kalshi · LAC — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Inglewood, CA PASS — no position

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Broncos

62%

fair value (books)

Chargers

38%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

45%

Madden 27

55%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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The Ladder — Broncos at Chargers How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Broncos at ChargersSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Broncos at Chargers Kalshi spread ladder for Week 5: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Broncos–Chargers spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Broncos vs Chargers power ratings (Week 5) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Denver Broncos+1.89thPlayoff
    Los Angeles Chargers-3.228thBelow Avg

    Broncos and Chargers season outlook

    DENLAC
    Average wins10.94.4
    Make playoffs79%2%
    Win division50%0%
    Win Super Bowl6.5%0.0%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Broncos vs Chargers — player pages

    All players →

    Omarion Hampton

    RB

    Ladd McConkey

    WR

    Jaylen Waddle

    WR

    Justin Herbert

    QB

    RJ Harvey

    RB

    Courtland Sutton

    WR

    Quentin Johnston

    WR

    Bo Nix

    QB

    J.K. Dobbins

    RB

    Oronde Gadsden II

    TE

    Keaton Mitchell

    RB

    Tre Harris

    WR

    Jonah Coleman

    RB

    Charlie Kolar

    Nate Adkins

    KeAndre Lambert-Smith

    Kimani Vidal

    DEN Broncos D/ST

    Evan Engram

    Marvin Mims Jr.

    Troy Franklin

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: Broncos–Chargers is a coin flip on our numbers

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 — the graded call is above.

    There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Chargers rate -3.2 (28th of 32), the Broncos +1.8 (9th) — 5.0 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 48%/52%, and this rates as the 7th-closest game of the 15 in Week 5. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Chargers at 4.4 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Broncos at 10.9 (favored in 13) — 6.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Chargers' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Broncos'.

    The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Broncos grade +1.2 on that side of the ball (5th of 32) against a Chargers offense at -3.5 (32nd) — 4.7 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.4, 17th) meets the Chargers defense (+0.2, 8th), a 0.2-point gap.

    On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC West race.

    Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 27-21 in the Broncos' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Broncos won 19-3 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Chargers are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Broncos at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DENLAC, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Full division picture on the AFC West hub.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Broncos vs Chargers on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DENLAC
    Market-implied (Chargers)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Chargers)
    38%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 38% for the Chargers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Broncos vs Chargers trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueChargersTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig36% 36cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Broncos vs Chargers

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    Broncos vs Chargers — frequently asked

    Who won Broncos vs Chargers in Week 5?

    Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 — final, played Sunday, October 11, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Broncos by 3.5 (62% to win), and the Broncos won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Broncos vs Chargers before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Broncos by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Chargers. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DENLAC market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Why does the model call this a toss-up?

    Because the Chargers (-3.2, 28th) and Broncos (+1.8, 9th) are only 5.0 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 38%/62%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.

    How do you take a position on Broncos vs Chargers?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DENLAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Chargers at 36c or below, or the Broncos at 60c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Chargers host the Broncos?

    Denver Broncos visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.

    What does the model project for the Chargers and Broncos this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Chargers at 4.4 wins (favored in 3) and the Broncos at 10.9 (favored in 13). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Chargers' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Broncos', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Broncos vs Chargers?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DENLAC, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Broncos vs Chargers on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 5 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DENLAC has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Broncos?

    52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Broncos at 52% over the Chargers sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Chargers moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 38% against a market price implying 36%, an edge of +1.8 points. Model 38% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 36% on LAC — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

    Trade this game on Kalshi →Chargers hub →Broncos hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 5 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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    The rematch

    They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Broncos–Chargers, Week 18 →

    Next up for each team

    Broncos: Week 6 vs SeahawksModel line →Chargers: Week 6 at ChiefsModel line →

    More Week 5 matchups

    Buccaneers at CowboysModel: Cowboys −9Eagles at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −3Bengals at DolphinsModel: Bengals −2Raiders at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8Vikings at SaintsModel: Saints −0.5Browns at JetsModel: Jets −1Colts at SteelersModel: Steelers −2Texans at TitansModel: Texans −1.5Giants at CommandersModel: Commanders −6.5Lions at CardinalsModel: Lions −1.5Bears at PackersModel: Packers −4.549ers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −4.5Ravens at FalconsModel: Falcons −4.5Bills at RamsModel: Rams −3

    Full Week 5 board →Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →

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