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Home/NFL/Week 6/Bills vs Raiders
Gridiron EdgeWeek 6 · 2026

Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30

Final. Raiders' next game: Raiders vs Jets, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 18, 2026): Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 — NFL Week 6, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bills by 5 (67% to win); the Bills won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Bills at 69c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bills by 5 (67% to win). The Bills won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Bills: -1c — we archived the Bills at 70c on Oct 11; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 69c on Oct 18. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 6 · 2026-10-19

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Raiders moneylineModel 33% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 31% on LV — kept as the pre-game record.31c33%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Bills 33, Raiders 30: James Cook’s 3-yard run with 4:43 left broke a 23-23 tie, and Josh Allen tied Jim Kelly’s franchise touchdown record

Allen threw for 255 yards and two touchdowns, the second a 12-yard throw to Keon Coleman that tied Kelly’s Bills record of 258, and Buffalo played its first turnover-free game in four weeks. Las Vegas tied it 23-23 on Kirk Cousins’ 11-yard touchdown to Tre Tucker, Cook answered with the go-ahead run, and Tyler Bass’s 38-yarder made it 33-23 with 1:56 left. Tucker’s 44-yard touchdown with 1:32 left cut it to three, and the Bills ran out the clock. DraftKings opened Las Vegas +6.5 and closed +5.5; Buffalo won by three, and 63 points finished over a total archived at 47.5 and 54.5.

Bills 33—Raiders 30

Final✓ Call hit

The chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had Las Vegas at 32.9%: the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 5-point line, so Buffalo was the side it favored, and Buffalo won. The model’s own read was Buffalo by 3.11, a 1.89-point lean toward Las Vegas, tier NONE, and Buffalo won by three: the lean was right. The quarterback gate read PASS. The ledger holds no position. Its three rows on this game were Raiders moneylines, and all three were voided before kickoff (a LOW row on 2026-10-07 under the never-published rule, MODERATE rows on 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-12 as no longer an edge), so they count in neither direction. The final pre-kickoff board carried no PLAY rows. Twenty-four visible WATCH rows went 13-11, graded apart from the record. Mike Washington Jr. over 9.5, 14.5 and 19.5 rushing yards won on 43, both Ashton Jeanty receiving overs won on 36, and Cook’s rushing ladder split on 95 yards (under 99.5 and 109.5 won; under 69.5, 79.5 and 89.5 lost), with his over 1.5 catches a win. Dalton Kincaid’s three catch unders lost on seven catches while both yardage unders won on 38. Allen and Cousins each threw two touchdowns, so each under 2.5 won and each under 1.5 lost. Dawson Knox’s two overs lost on one catch for no yards, Jalen Nailor over 1.5 catches lost on one, and Cousins under 9.5 rushing yards won. Eight rows on suppressed stats (seven passing-yards rungs and an Allen anytime touchdown) were never displayed and count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Bills −6.5 → Bills −5.5
Total
47.5 → 54.5
Moneyline
BUF −285 / LV +230 → BUF −245 / LV +200

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total rose 7 to 54.5; the game landed on 63.

How it happened

Q2

Jeanty from 1, Allen to Khalil Shakir from 9, and 13-13 on a field goal as the half ended

Bass opened with a 44-yard field goal, and Las Vegas answered with a nine-play, 70-yard drive finished by Jeanty’s one-yard run. Bass kicked a 28-yarder and Buffalo went 85 yards in nine plays for Allen’s nine-yard touchdown to Shakir. Matt Gay made it 13-10, and late in the half C.J. Gardner-Johnson was disqualified, per the AP for spitting at center Tyler Linderbaum, and Gay’s 27-yarder as time expired tied it.

Bills touchdown drive
9 plays · 85 yds · 5:48
Halftime
Bills 13, Raiders 13

ESPN — play-by-play

Q3

A Cousins interception and Allen’s 12-yard throw to Coleman for No. 258

Bass’s 47-yarder put Buffalo ahead 16-13, and two plays into the next Raiders drive Cousins was intercepted at the Las Vegas 32. Buffalo scored six plays later, Allen escaping a sack and throwing 12 yards to Coleman for a 23-13 lead and the 258th touchdown pass of his career, tying Kelly. The Raiders answered with a 15-play, 70-yard drive that took 7:50 and ended in Gay’s 23-yard field goal.

After the Coleman touchdown
Bills 23, Raiders 13
Raiders reply
15 plays · 70 yds · 7:50 · FG

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Tucker from 11 tied it, Cook from 3 untied it, and Bass made it a two-score game

Las Vegas went 91 yards in nine plays and Cousins hit Tucker for an 11-yard touchdown and a 23-23 tie with 8:07 left. Buffalo answered with seven plays and 66 yards, helped by a 26-yard Cook catch on a play where the Raiders’ defense flowed away from him, per the AP, and Cook ran it in from three with 4:43 left. Bass’s 38-yarder made it 33-23 with 1:56 to play.

Raiders tying drive
9 plays · 91 yds
Bills go-ahead drive
7 plays · 66 yds · 3:24
With 1:56 left
Bills 33, Raiders 23

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Tucker for 44 with 1:32 left, and Buffalo ran out the clock

Two plays after Bass’s field goal, Cousins threw deep down the middle to Tucker for a 44-yard touchdown that cut it to 33-30 with 1:32 left. Buffalo took over and ran out the clock in three snaps. Cook finished with 95 rushing yards and three catches for 58, and the Bills committed no turnovers after nine in their previous three games.

Final
Bills 33, Raiders 30
Allen
23 of 33 · 255 yds · 2 TD
Cousins
23 of 41 · 313 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
Tucker
5 catches · 97 yds · 2 TD
Michael Mayer
7 catches · 95 yds

AP via ESPN — Josh Allen ties Jim Kelly’s Bills TD pass record as Buffalo holds off Raiders 33-30

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. There is no live nfl_weekly_edges row for it (all three Raiders moneyline rows were voided before kickoff). Grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W6_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-18/prop-reconciliation-w06.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • ESPN’s archived DraftKings total moved seven points, from 47.5 to 54.5, while the spread moved one. It is printed as archived; this recap has not confirmed the total against a second source and does not claim what moved it.
  • The AP story names Linderbaum as the player Gardner-Johnson spat at and, in the next paragraph, refers to an unsportsmanlike penalty “on Powers-Johnson”. The play-by-play records the disqualification on Gardner-Johnson. This recap names only him.
  • Las Vegas tried an onside kick after Tucker’s last touchdown and Khalil Shakir fielded it at the Buffalo 45; the play-by-play shows Buffalo’s final possession as three snaps for minus-3 yards.
  • The severity of Dalton Kincaid’s rib injury and Bradley Chubb’s (both returned) was not known when this was published.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price.

Reporting verified 2026-10-18. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Josh Allen ties Jim Kelly’s Bills TD pass record as Buffalo holds off Raiders 33-30

The league’s best offense and one of its worst defenses fly to Las Vegas on a short week — and the Raiders cannot run the ball

Buffalo scores more than anyone, explodes on the ground more than anyone, and gives up 28 a game doing it. Las Vegas is the inverse problem: Kirk Cousins has twelve touchdown passes and a run game averaging three yards a carry behind him. Our model and the market read this the same way, so there is nothing to trade here; what follows is why the Bills are favored and the two places the Raiders can actually make it uncomfortable.

Bills run offense · Raiders run defense

James Cook and Josh Allen on the ground against a run defense that just allowed 165 and 189

Edge: Bills

Buffalo runs the ball on half its snaps and breaks a ten-yard run on 19% of carries, the highest rate in the league. Cook is at 5.6 a carry with five touchdowns and Allen has eight rushing scores of his own, including a 121-yard night against the Rams that was the fourth 100-yard rushing game of his career. Las Vegas has allowed 5.2 yards a carry on the season and is coming off back-to-back games of 189 rushing yards to Kansas City and 165 to New England; since Week 3 the Raiders are allowing three points a drive, 30th in the league. The one thing that keeps this from being a formality is in Cook’s hands — four fumbles, the most in the NFL, and his coach said publicly this week that if it does not improve "the carries are gonna decrease". Buffalo has also converted half its third downs, second in the league, so the drives that start on the ground tend to finish.

Bills run game
Cook 95 att, 532 yds, 5.6, 5 TD (4 fumbles, NFL-most) · Allen 43 att, 239 yds, 8 TD · 19% of carries gain 10+ (1st)
Raiders run defense
5.2 yards per carry allowed · 189 to KC (Wk 4), 165 to NE (Wk 5) · 3.0 points per drive allowed since Week 3 (30th)
Bills third downs
26 of 52 (50.0%) — 2nd in the NFL

Source: Pro Football Reference — 2026 Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders run offense · Bills run defense

Las Vegas is last in the league on the ground, and Ed Oliver’s absence is the one thing that helps them

Edge: Bills

The Raiders are averaging 3.0 yards a carry and 82 rushing yards a game, and only 5.8% of their runs gain ten yards, 30th in the league. Jeanty, the centre of Kubiak’s plan, is at 3.3 on 88 carries with no rushing touchdowns, and managed 27 yards on ten attempts in New England while playing through a foot and ankle he said he would not sit for "unless I can’t run, jump". Buffalo’s run defense is the one part of Jim Leonhard’s unit that has held up — 3.9 a carry allowed — but it held up with Oliver in the middle, and Oliver hurt his knee against the Patriots, missed the Rams game and did not practise Wednesday. Kubiak said this week the staff would consider changes up front after the Patriots game, with left guard Spencer Burford the spot most discussed. If Las Vegas finds a run game it will be against a Bills interior missing its best player; nothing in the first five weeks says it will.

Raiders run game
137 att, 410 yds, 3.0 per carry, 2 TD · Jeanty 88 att, 291 yds, 3.3, 0 TD · 10+ yard runs on 5.8% of carries (30th)
Bills run defense
3.9 yards per carry allowed, 541 yds in five games
Ed Oliver
Knee, DNP Wednesday; missed the Rams game; 3 games played, 0.5 sacks

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Bills–Raiders Week 6 worksheet

Raiders pass offense · Bills coverage

Cousins off play-action against a secondary that allows the most second-half passing yards in football — the Raiders’ path

Edge: Raiders

This is where the game gets interesting for Las Vegas. Cousins has twelve touchdown passes, second in the league, on a career-high 7% touchdown rate, and the split is stark: off play-action he is completing 75% at 9.9 a throw with a 145.4 rating, seven touchdowns and no interceptions; without it he is an 82.6-rating quarterback with five scores and four picks. The problem is that play-action needs a run game to sell and Kubiak used it on a season-low 18% of dropbacks in New England. Buffalo’s pass defense is the softest target he will see — 21.8 passing points allowed a game, 31st, with multiple touchdown passes allowed in four of five games and 172 second-half passing yards allowed a game, the most in the league. Bowers has 312 yards and three scores in three games and went 8-110-1 against New England; he was limited Wednesday with a knee. Tre Tucker and Michael Mayer carry the rest. On the other side DJ Moore’s shoulder kept him out again and Palmer was limited, so Allen is still throwing to Shakir, Kincaid and Coleman.

Cousins play-action split
With PA: 75% comp, 9.9 Y/A, 145.4 rating, 7 TD, 0 INT · Without: 63.2%, 6.7 Y/A, 82.6 rating, 5 TD, 4 INT
Bills pass defense
21.8 passing points allowed per game (31st) · 172.0 second-half passing yards allowed per game (most in NFL)
Targets, Wednesday
Bowers (knee) limited, 24-312-3 in 3 games · Moore (shoulder) DNP · Palmer (shoulder) limited

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Bills–Raiders Week 6 worksheet

Both pass rushes · both tackles

Greg Rousseau against a line that is being reshuffled, and Maxx Crosby against a right tackle with a bad back

Close to even

Rousseau is the best player on Buffalo’s defense by a distance — six sacks, 17 quarterback hits and three forced fumbles in five games — and he draws a Raiders line that gave up three sacks in New England and that its own coach says may change at guard. Las Vegas rebuilt the front after allowing 64 sacks last year and has been better, eight sacks allowed on 180 dropbacks, but the Patriots game was the first time it looked like 2025 again. The mirror matchup is Crosby against Spencer Brown: Crosby has only two sacks but 13 quarterback hits, and Brown left Monday night with a back injury, was limited Wednesday, and has a surgical history there. When he went out Tylan Grable played the final 48 snaps at right tackle and was flagged for holding and a false start. Allen has been sacked ten times already, more than Cousins. Whichever edge wins his side probably decides whether this stays a game into the fourth quarter.

Greg Rousseau
6.0 sacks, 17 QB hits, 3 forced fumbles in five games
Maxx Crosby vs Spencer Brown
Crosby 2.0 sacks, 13 QB hits · Brown (back) limited Wednesday after leaving MNF; Grable played 48 snaps in relief, two flags
Sacks allowed
Bills 10 (Allen) · Raiders 8 (Cousins), three of them in New England

Source: Pro Football Reference — 2026 Buffalo Bills

What this read does not know

  • There is no edge here and this module does not manufacture one. The model’s read and the market’s are within our own noise band, which is why the game carries no lean of note on the board. The units above explain the price; they do not argue with it.
  • Three Buffalo starters have no designation yet and the first real practice is Thursday. Wednesday was a walk-through, so Moore, Oliver and Brown’s statuses are estimates, and Buffalo has a Week 7 bye immediately after this — exactly the circumstance in which a staff rests a borderline player an extra week. A Friday OUT on Brown moves this read more than one on Moore.
  • The short week is real and we have not priced it. Buffalo played Monday night in Los Angeles, stayed out west, and kicks off at 1:25 p.m. local on Sunday; Las Vegas played at 1:00 p.m. ET Sunday and has had a normal week. The rating has no rest-differential term. Historically this is worth something to the home side; how much, in this specific shape, we do not know.
  • Cook’s fumbles are a tail risk the model cannot see. Four fumbles in five games against a Raiders defense with ten takeaways and a cornerback, Hezekiah Masses, with three interceptions already. Buffalo’s best unit handing the ball to the Raiders’ best unit two or three times is the realistic upset path, and it is a variance story, not a matchup story.
  • The Raiders’ offensive-line changes were described as under consideration, not announced. We read Kubiak saying the staff would look at it and local reporting naming Burford; we did not see a depth chart. If the line is reshuffled it is a different pass-protection unit from the one the Rousseau numbers above are measured against.
  • Several of the Bills defensive numbers are schedule-inflated and we quoted them anyway. Twenty-eight points a game allowed includes 31 from Houston, 31 from Detroit and 34 from the Rams — three of the better offenses in football. Las Vegas scored 17 last week. The ranking is honest; the inference that Cousins will do what Stafford did is not automatic.

Reporting verified 2026-10-15. Further sources: raiders.com — Raiders–Bills Week 6 injury report (official, 2026-10-14) · Yahoo Sports — Bills vs. Raiders injury update: Buffalo’s list grows, Jeanty banged up (2026-10-13) · Yahoo Sports — Bills at Raiders: 5 storylines to watch (Brady on Cook’s fumbles) · WGRZ — DJ Moore, Ed Oliver miss Bills walk-through ahead of Raiders matchup (2026-10-14) · Silver and Black Pride — Raiders–Bills: key storylines this week (Kubiak on line changes) · Sharp Football Analysis — Bills–Raiders Week 6 worksheet · Covers — Bills vs Raiders Week 6 (team efficiency context) · FantasyData — Raiders at Patriots Week 5 box score (2026-10-11) · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Buffalo Bills · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Las Vegas Raiders

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 6 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 18
AWAY BUF +2.3
vs BUF -5
HOME LV -4.2
Fair (books) · LV 33% home win prob
Kalshi · LV — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Paradise, NV PASS — no position

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Bills

67%

fair value (books)

Raiders

33%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

55%

Madden 27

45%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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The Ladder — Bills at Raiders How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Bills at RaidersSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Bills at Raiders Kalshi spread ladder for Week 6: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Bills–Raiders spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Bills vs Raiders power ratings (Week 6) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Buffalo Bills+2.37thPlayoff
    Las Vegas Raiders-4.229thBelow Avg

    Bills and Raiders season outlook

    BUFLV
    Average wins11.26.9
    Make playoffs82%12%
    Win division55%3%
    Win Super Bowl7.7%0.3%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Bills vs Raiders — player pages

    All players →

    James Cook

    RB

    Ashton Jeanty

    RB

    Josh Allen

    QB

    Brock Bowers

    TE

    DJ Moore

    WR

    Dalton Kincaid

    TE

    Khalil Shakir

    WR

    Jalen Nailor

    WR

    Tre Tucker

    WR

    Mike Washington Jr.

    RB

    Keon Coleman

    Michael Mayer

    Joshua Palmer

    Ty Johnson

    Kirk Cousins

    BUF Bills D/ST

    Dawson Knox

    Jackson Hawes

    Keleki Latu

    Ray Davis

    Cody White

    Connor Heyward

    Dont'e Thornton Jr.

    LV Raiders D/ST

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: What the model sees in Bills at Raiders

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 — the graded call is above.

    The Bills travel to face the Raiders in Week 6. Our power ratings put the Raiders 29th of 32 at -4.2 (Below Avg tier) and the Bills 7th at +2.3 (Playoff tier) — a 6.5-point gap that home field narrows to a 3-point line on the Bills, 59% to win. It rates as the 8th-widest of the 14 games in Week 6.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.5 (1st of 32) against a Raiders defense at -3.1 (29th) — 7.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Raiders offense (-1.3, 27th) meets the Bills defense (-2.8, 28th), a 1.5-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Bills grade +0.6, 8th in the league, against +0.1 (24th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Raiders at 6.9 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Bills at 11.2 (favored in 11) — 4.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 9th-hardest game on the Raiders' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Bills'.

    The series is dead level: 5-5 across 10 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2023: Bills won 38-10 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Raiders are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Bills at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Bills vs Raiders on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV
    Market-implied (Raiders)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Raiders)
    33%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 33% for the Raiders. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Bills vs Raiders trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueRaidersTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig32% 32cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Bills vs Raiders

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    Bills vs Raiders — frequently asked

    Who won Bills vs Raiders in Week 6?

    Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 — final, played Sunday, October 18, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bills by 5 (67% to win), and the Bills won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Bills vs Raiders before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Bills by 5 points, a 67% win probability over the Raiders. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What is the biggest mismatch in Bills vs Raiders?

    Bills offense (+4.5, 1st of 32) against Raiders defense (-3.1, 29th) — 7.6 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Bills (+0.6, 8th).

    How do you take a position on Bills vs Raiders?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Raiders at 31c or below, or the Bills at 65c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Raiders host the Bills?

    Buffalo Bills visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV.

    What does the model project for the Raiders and Bills this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Raiders at 6.9 wins (favored in 3) and the Bills at 11.2 (favored in 11). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Raiders' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Bills', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Bills vs Raiders?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Bills vs Raiders on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 6 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 59% on a team like the Bills?

    57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Bills at 59% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Raiders moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 33% against a market price implying 31%, an edge of +1.9 points. Model 33% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 31% on LV — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Bills: Week 8 vs RavensModel line →Raiders: Week 7 vs RamsModel line →

    More Week 6 matchups

    Seahawks at BroncosModel: evenTexans at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −2.5Bears at FalconsModel: Falcons −0.5Ravens at BrownsModel: Browns −4.5Titans at ColtsModel: Colts −6.5Jets at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8.5Saints at GiantsModel: Giants −0.5Panthers at EaglesModel: Panthers −1.5Steelers at BuccaneersModel: Steelers −2Cardinals at RamsModel: Rams −9.5Chargers at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5Cowboys at PackersModel: Packers −4.5Commanders at 49ersModel: 49ers −7

    Full Week 6 board →Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →

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