Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Bills by 8 in Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders, NFL Week 6 2026 — 77% to win, and the 14th-widest model gap in Week 6. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Raiders at 18c or below (or Bills at 72c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BUF
+3.8
LV
-6.0
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Bills
77%
model win prob
Raiders
23%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
55%
Madden 27
45%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Raiders at 18c or below, or the Bills at 72c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Bills at Raiders
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders −0.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Raiders −1.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Raiders −2.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Raiders −3.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Raiders −4.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Raiders −6.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Raiders −7.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Raiders −9.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Raiders −10.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Raiders −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Raiders −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Why the model has the Bills by 8
The visitors are the ones with the rating edge, and it is big enough that home field does not touch it. The Bills grade +3.8 (4th of 32) to -6.0 for the Raiders (32nd); even after handing the Raiders their 2.5 points, the line is Bills by 8 and 77% to win. Road favorites of this size are the 14th-widest gap on the 14-game Week 6 board. The caution is the usual one: a preseason rating knows nothing about who is healthy in the back half of the season.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.1 (2nd of 32) against a Raiders defense at -2.0 (24th) — 6.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Raiders offense (-4.2, 32nd) meets the Bills defense (-0.7, 16th), a 3.5-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Raiders at 5.7 wins (favored in 1 of 17) and the Bills at 10.1 (favored in 13) — 4.3 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 8th-hardest game on the Raiders' schedule and the 15th-hardest on the Bills'.
The series is dead level: 5-5 across 10 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2023: Bills won 38-10 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Raiders are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 139 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 75-80% range won 74% of those. So a 77% Bills number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 26 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
There is no market to compare against yet — Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV — and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Bills YES is only worth buying at 72c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 77%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Raiders at 18c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bills vs Raiders on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV
- Market-implied (Raiders)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Raiders)
- 23%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Raiders at 18c or below, or the Bills at 72c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Bills vs Raiders trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Raiders | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Bills vs Raiders — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bills vs Raiders in Week 6?
Our power-rating model picks the Bills by 8 points, a 77% win probability over the Raiders, for a projected score of Bills 27, Raiders 19 on a ratings-implied 46.6-point total. The Raiders rate 32nd of 32 (-6.0) and the Bills 4th (+3.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the Raiders to win?
The 8-point line comes from a 9.8-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Raiders still project at 23% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Raiders defense (-2.0, 24th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Bills vs Raiders?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Raiders at 18c or below, or the Bills at 72c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Raiders host the Bills?
Buffalo Bills visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV.
What does the model project for the Raiders and Bills this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Raiders at 5.7 wins (favored in 1) and the Bills at 10.1 (favored in 13). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Raiders' schedule and 15th-hardest on the Bills', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bills vs Raiders?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Raiders at 18c or below or the Bills at 72c or below, off a 8-point line.
Can you trade Bills vs Raiders on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 6 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 77% on a team like the Bills?
74% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 75-80% range 139 times, and those teams won 74% of them. The Bills at 77% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 8-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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