Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Bills by 7.5 in Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders, NFL Week 6 2026 — 71% to win, and the 3rd-widest model gap in Week 6. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Raiders at 24c or below (or Bills at 66c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BUF
+4.2
LV
-5.8
Bills
71%
model win prob
Raiders
29%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLVhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Raiders at 24c or below, or the Bills at 66c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Why the model has the Bills by 7.5
The visitors are the ones with the rating edge, and it is big enough that home field does not touch it. The Bills grade +4.2 (4th of 32) to -5.8 for the Raiders (32nd); even after handing the Raiders their 2.5 points, the line is Bills by 7.5 and 71% to win. Road favorites of this size are the 3rd-widest gap on the 14-game Week 6 board. The caution is the usual one: a preseason rating knows nothing about who is healthy in the back half of the season.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.0 (2nd of 32) against a Raiders defense at -1.9 (24th) — 5.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Raiders offense (-4.1, 32nd) meets the Bills defense (-0.2, 11th), a 3.9-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Raiders at 5.6 wins (favored in 1 of 17) and the Bills at 10.3 (favored in 13) — 4.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 8th-hardest game on the Raiders' schedule and the 15th-hardest on the Bills'.
The series is dead level: 5-5 across 10 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2023: Bills won 38-10 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Raiders are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 71% Bills number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
There is no market to compare against yet — Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV — and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Bills YES is only worth buying at 66c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 71%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Raiders at 24c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bills vs Raiders — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bills vs Raiders in Week 6?
Our power-rating model favors the Bills by 7.5 points, a 71% win probability over the Raiders. The Raiders rate 32nd of 32 (-5.8) and the Bills 4th (+4.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the Raiders to win?
The 7.5-point line comes from a 10.0-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 13.5-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Raiders still project at 29% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Raiders defense (-1.9, 24th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Bills vs Raiders?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BUFLV on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Raiders at 24c or below, or the Bills at 66c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Raiders host the Bills?
Buffalo Bills visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV.
What does the model project for the Raiders and Bills this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Raiders at 5.6 wins (favored in 1) and the Bills at 10.3 (favored in 13). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Raiders' schedule and 15th-hardest on the Bills', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 71% on a team like the Bills?
71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Bills at 71% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 7.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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