New England Patriots: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge
Board as of · prices live
The prediction-market read on the Patriots: our 10,000-season simulation projects 10.3 wins in 2026 (2nd of 32, Contender tier; raw model 10.9), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and AFC East standing below.
This week on the boardNFL Week 1 predictions →Week 2 predictions →
2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi
New England Patriots
± 1.9 · 2nd of 32
Model agrees with the market
Divergence is projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line, in wins — MODERATE on the one ladder every season-wins surface grades on (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); OVER / UNDER fires at ±2.0. Projected wins are the 10,000-season simulation mean; the raw model reads 10.9. No single rung sits near 50¢.
See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
The consensus spread
Three independent estimates of the same season on one line: the expected wins implied by the live Kalshi ladder, our 10,000-season simulation, and EA’s Madden 27 simulation. Where they disagree is the whole signal.
Both independent models sit on the same side of the market line — our sim at 10.33 and the Madden simulation at 9.81 against 9.13 implied wins. That is the cleanest version of this signal.
Our model is far higher on the Patriots than Madden is — 1st on play-by-play versus 9th on talent, a 8-place gap. The production is there; the roster grades don't reflect it.
Where the season actually lands
A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position — the full distribution against the contract line can. Bars are the Madden 27 simulation over 10,000 seasons; the dashed marker is the live contract.
of clearing 9.13
+14.2pp vs a coin flip
Our probability from the 10,000-season simulation (mean 10.33 wins; raw model 10.94 ± 1.92). Bars: Madden 27 sim-2026, 10,000 iterations. Two methods, no shared inputs.
The Ladder — Patriots
All ladders →The season simulation at every Kalshi win-total rung, then the widest player-prop gap on this club this week. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the simulation alone.
We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 10+ wins | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 11+ wins | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 12+ wins | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 13+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||
4 more rungs14+ wins → 17+ wins · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Market edges
The season contract and the single game most likely to move it, graded on the same thresholds every other Gridiron Edge surface uses.
Season wins over 9.13
Our 10,000-season simulation projects 10.33 (raw model 10.94), the Madden 27 simulation 9.81, against 9.13 market-implied wins — a +1.21-win gap. MODERATE on the wins ladder (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); a side is flagged only at the 2.0-win STRONG rung, so the honest read is no position.
Week 3 at Jaguars
The truest coin flip on the schedule at 51%. Games this close are where a season win total is actually decided — and where a live in-week contract is most likely to be mispriced. Full read →
Informational only. Contracts can settle at $0 — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Power rating breakdown
Diverging from league average rather than four flat numbers, so a positive reads as a positive at a glance. Points per game.
Overall +5.5 ranks 1st of 32 (Contender tier). How Patriots rank on the points scale → Re-weight the model yourself →
Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (59.6% backtested straight-up accuracy across 3,266 games, no market line used).
The season path
Seventeen weeks as a heat ribbon — the shape of the season in one glance, each cell linking to that game’s full read. The sortable table stays below it.
Roster shape vs the league
Nine position groups against league average. Each axis is scaled on its own league range — a shared 0-100 scale flattens every roster into the same circle.
Dashed violet ring = league average. Number chip = rank of 32. Source: Madden 27 launch team composites (derived unit aggregates, no per-player data).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Our % is the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=14.4 — those 17 numbers sum to the raw model's 10.9 wins; the 10.3-win headline above is the 10,000-season simulation, which adds rating uncertainty (and fits its own home-field, 2.0) on top of these same ratings. Madden % is the same question asked of Madden 27 talent composites, a model that shares none of our inputs.
AFC East ladder
Projected wins across the division, leader in gold — and four internal reads a click away.
Patriots
10.3
+5.5
Bills
9.9
+3.8
Dolphins
6.8
-3.3
Jets
6.8
-4.0
Model has the Patriots 1st in the AFC East. Division hub →
10,000-season simulation
How it works →Our own preseason board, played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times with the league's actual tiebreaker procedure. The projection above is the middle of this; these are the odds around it. The sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games) — a separate fit from the +2.5 the game model uses on matchup pages.
Sim average wins
10.3
10,000 seasons · 64% reach 10+
Make playoffs
72%
8% win 6 or fewer
Win division
45%
16% take the 1 seed
Win Super Bowl
9.9%
1st of 32 · 17% reach it
The Patriots draw a 0.494 opponent win rate — the 24th-hardest schedule in the league.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings. Real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule. No injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices.
Madden 27 outlook
Full board →A second opinion, built from Madden 27 launch ratings alone and played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times. It knows nothing about our own model — which is what makes the disagreement worth reading.
Madden rank
9
82.8 composite · QB 92
Simulated wins
9.8
56% reach 10+
Playoffs
64%
44% win division
Super Bowl
5.1%
SoS 0.482 (29th hardest)
Our model is far higher on the Patriots than Madden is — 1st on play-by-play versus 9th on talent, a 8-place gap. The production is there; the roster grades don't reflect it.
Madden-only inputs — no injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices. Average error on a season win total is 2.27 wins, so the distribution is the product, not the mean. The 10,000-season simulation →
Patriots 2026 — frequently asked
What is the New England Patriots win total for 2026?
The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 9.1 wins for the Patriots in 2026. Our 10,000-season simulation on our DAEPA power ratings projects 10.3 wins — a 1.2-win agreement with the market (MODERATE on our wins ladder).
Where do the Patriots rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The Patriots sit at a +5.5-point power rating — 1st of 32 — in the Contender tier. That rating (offense +4.0, defense +1.3, special teams +0.2) is the input behind every Patriots prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade New England Patriots games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Patriots season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the Patriots in for 2026?
The Patriots play in the AFC East, alongside Bills, Dolphins, Jets. Our model has them projected 1st in the AFC East on 10.3 expected wins.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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