San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, January 10, 2027 · State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ

49ers

52%

model win prob

Cardinals

48%

model win prob

Model line

49ers −0.5

Kalshi (Cardinals)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the 49ers — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

San Francisco 49ers+1.09thAverage

Arizona Cardinals-2.328thBelow Avg

The prediction-market read

In Week 18, the San Francisco 49ers travel to face the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Cardinals 28th of 32 (Below Avg tier, -2.3) and the 49ers 9th (Average tier, +1.0). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the 49ers by 0.5 — a 52% win probability for the 49ers.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 48% (Cardinals) / 52% (49ers) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a NFC West divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the NFC West race. Track the full division on the NFC West hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

49ers vs Cardinals — frequently asked

Who is favored in 49ers vs Cardinals in Week 18?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the 49ers by 0.5 points and gives them a 52% win probability over the Cardinals. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for 49ers vs Cardinals?

Home win probability 48% (Cardinals), away 52% (49ers). That comes from a power-rating differential of -3.2 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Cardinals rate 28th of 32 (Below Avg tier), the 49ers 9th (Average tier).

Can you trade 49ers vs Cardinals on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.