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Gridiron Edge

NFL Week 2 2026 Results: Our Predictions Graded

Updated · model ratings

Quick Answer

As of September 21, 2026, Week 2 is final. The model went 11–5 straight up and 3–2 on published positions (Kalshi vs book consensus) — every game below is graded against its final score.

Each game links to its own page with the final score and how our call held up; the full record lives on the track record.

This week: NFL Week 8 predictions.

See how all 16 Week 2 calls graded →

Week 2 straight-up picks

The model's winner in all 16 games, graded below against the final scores. Each row shows the pre-game call.

WinnerModelKalshi
  1. Bills over Lions · pre-game call    69%—
  2. Panthers over Falcons · pre-game call    59%—
  3. Ravens over Saints · pre-game call    77%—
  4. Bears over Vikings · pre-game call    65%—
  5. Texans over Bengals · pre-game call    59%—
  6. Patriots over Steelers · pre-game call    69%—
  7. Packers over Jets · pre-game call    62%—
  8. Buccaneers over Browns · pre-game call    76%—
  9. Eagles over Titans · pre-game call    73%—
  10. Broncos over Jaguars · pre-game call    59%—
  11. Chargers over Raiders · pre-game call    72%—
  12. Seahawks over Cardinals · pre-game call    62%—
  13. Cowboys over Commanders · pre-game call    64%—
  14. 49ers over Dolphins · pre-game call    88%—
  15. Chiefs over Colts · pre-game call    70%—
  16. Rams over Giants · pre-game call    73%—

Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored — it is the market’s number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the model’s own read. The model’s separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winner’s contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play — the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.

Week 2 in numbers

  • 11–5 straight up for the model, every game graded below.
  • 5 upsets by closing line among the 16 games recapped, led by the Browns at +330 (+8.5): Browns 23, Buccaneers 19.
  • The line moved toward the winner in 6 of 16, toward the loser in 7, flat in 3; season to date, toward the winner in 49 of 106, toward the loser in 42, flat in 15.

Biggest moves of Week 2

  1. Seahawks at Cardinals: moved 6.5 toward the Cardinals (Cardinals +10 → +3.5); Seahawks won by 24 anywaytoward loser
  2. Panthers at Falcons: moved 4 toward the Panthers (Falcons −1.5 → +2.5); Panthers won by 31toward winner
  3. Browns at Buccaneers: moved 3 toward the Buccaneers (Buccaneers −5.5 → −8.5); Browns won by 4 anywaytoward loser

One line source: DraftKings, via ESPN — the opening and closing spread on each game, not a consensus of every platform. Every 2026 upset →

Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model

Thursday edge sheet: all 16 Week 2 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.

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  1. Lions at Bills — Final: Lions 31, Bills 41 · model had Bills (69%, pre-game)
  2. Panthers at Falcons — Final: Panthers 34, Falcons 3 · model had Panthers (59%, pre-game)
  3. Saints at Ravens — Final: Saints 24, Ravens 17 · model had Ravens (77%, pre-game)
  4. Vikings at Bears — Final: Vikings 9, Bears 3 · model had Bears (65%, pre-game)
  5. Bengals at Texans — Final: Bengals 20, Texans 6 · model had Texans (59%, pre-game)
  6. Steelers at Patriots — Final: Steelers 3, Patriots 20 · model had Patriots (69%, pre-game)
  7. Packers at Jets — Final: Packers 20, Jets 17 (OT) · model had Packers (62%, pre-game)
  8. Browns at Buccaneers — Final: Browns 23, Buccaneers 19 · model had Buccaneers (76%, pre-game)
  9. Eagles at Titans — Final: Eagles 24, Titans 20 · model had Eagles (73%, pre-game)
  10. Jaguars at Broncos — Final: Jaguars 13, Broncos 20 · model had Broncos (59%, pre-game)
  11. Raiders at Chargers — Final: Raiders 26, Chargers 14 · model had Chargers (72%, pre-game)
  12. Seahawks at Cardinals — Final: Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7 · model had Seahawks (62%, pre-game)
  13. Commanders at Cowboys — Final: Commanders 20, Cowboys 37 · model had Cowboys (64%, pre-game)
  14. Dolphins at 49ers — Final: Dolphins 13, 49ers 35 · model had 49ers (88%, pre-game)
  15. Colts at Chiefs — Final: Colts 30, Chiefs 33 (OT) · model had Chiefs (70%, pre-game)
  16. Giants at Rams — Final: Giants 6, Rams 28 · model had Rams (73%, pre-game)

All 16 Week 2 games with the published win probability (fair value (books) once priced), the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the model’s own line and the edge.

Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market → — the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.

Biggest NFL upsets of 2026, by closing line →

Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week — the defensive injury cluster board.

How to use these pages: what every box on a game page means →

Live: every Week 2 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board →

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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →

Kalshi hasn’t listed Week 2 game markets yet. The model numbers below are live — edges and the Biggest Edges board light up here the minute those markets open.
W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17W18
MatchupModel lineFair (books)
Lionsat
Bills
Bills −5.569%
Panthersat
Falcons
Panthers −2.559%
Saintsat
Ravens
Ravens −8.577%
Vikingsat
Bears
Bears −4.565%
Bengalsat
Texans
Texans −2.559%
Steelersat
Patriots
Patriots −5.569%
Packersat
Jets
Packers −3.562%
Brownsat
Buccaneers
Buccaneers −876%
Eaglesat
Titans
Eagles −773%
Jaguarsat
Broncos
Broncos −2.559%
Raidersat
Chargers
Chargers −6.572%
Seahawksat
Cardinals
Seahawks −3.562%
Commandersat
Cowboys
Cowboys −464%
Dolphinsat
49ers
49ers −13.588%
Coltsat
Chiefs
Chiefs −670%
Giantsat
Rams
Rams −773%

Week 2 primetime, live

DET at BUF — full breakdown →
IND at KC — full breakdown →
NYG at LAR — full breakdown →

Run Week 2 yourself

All tools →
Price GapsPROWhere the best price is right now — Kalshi vs Polymarket US vs the books.→Combo Edge BuilderFREEPrice a same-game combo for this slate — true joint probability, free, no leg cap.→NFL Win ProbabilityFREETurn any spread and total into a win probability and projected score.→Prop BoardLIVEEvery listed player prop, model number against the Kalshi price.→

Rankings NFL power rankings (Week 8)

Week 2 players to watch

All players →

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB

Bijan Robinson

RB

Puka Nacua

WR

Ja'Marr Chase

WR

Christian McCaffrey

RB

Jonathan Taylor

RB

James Cook

RB

CeeDee Lamb

WR

Chase Brown

RB

Justin Jefferson

WR

A.J. Brown

WR

Saquon Barkley

RB

Nico Collins

WR

Ashton Jeanty

RB

Kenneth Walker III

RB

Omarion Hampton

RB

One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

Watch the Week 2 breakdown

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NFL Week 2 predictions — frequently asked

Who does the model pick in NFL Week 2 2026?

Week 2 is in progress: 16 of 16 games are final and graded on this page, and the model makes no call on the 0 remaining games. The full record lives on the track record.

How are these NFL Week 2 predictions made?

Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.

What does the edge on each game mean?

Edge is the published win probability — the fair value (books) once a game is priced — minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means that number has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap clears 2 points net of the book's spread; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.

Who will win each NFL Week 2 game?

The model's straight-up winner in each of the 16 Week 2 games, with its win probability (0 still to play; a game that has kicked off is listed as its pre-game call). Bills over Lions (69%, pre-game); Panthers over Falcons (59%, pre-game); Ravens over Saints (77%, pre-game); Bears over Vikings (65%, pre-game); Texans over Bengals (59%, pre-game); Patriots over Steelers (69%, pre-game); Packers over Jets (62%, pre-game); Buccaneers over Browns (76%, pre-game); Eagles over Titans (73%, pre-game); Broncos over Jaguars (59%, pre-game); Chargers over Raiders (72%, pre-game); Seahawks over Cardinals (62%, pre-game); Cowboys over Commanders (64%, pre-game); 49ers over Dolphins (88%, pre-game); Chiefs over Colts (70%, pre-game); Rams over Giants (73%, pre-game). The winner is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced); an upset is a winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where that number and the price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread.

What are the NFL Week 2 picks straight up?

Week 2 picks straight up: Bills over Lions (pre-game call), Panthers over Falcons (pre-game call), Ravens over Saints (pre-game call), Bears over Vikings (pre-game call), Texans over Bengals (pre-game call), Patriots over Steelers (pre-game call), Packers over Jets (pre-game call), Buccaneers over Browns (pre-game call), Eagles over Titans (pre-game call), Broncos over Jaguars (pre-game call), Chargers over Raiders (pre-game call), Seahawks over Cardinals (pre-game call), Cowboys over Commanders (pre-game call), 49ers over Dolphins (pre-game call), Chiefs over Colts (pre-game call), Rams over Giants (pre-game call). Each pick is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced) — the model's straight-up call, not a position. The play on each game is the side where that number and the Kalshi price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread, on its matchup page.

How often are the Week 2 picks updated?

Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.

Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?

Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

Win probabilities are the market-anchored fair value (books) once a game is priced; the model’s own line is the lean. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.