NFL Week 2 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · market prices
Quick Answer
As of September 16, 2026, our Week 2 calls: the model sides with the market favorite in all 16 games straight up. The model disagrees with the Kalshi price on 3 of 16 games; the widest gap is Commanders at 38% to win versus Kalshi's 35¢.
Next widest: Titans at 27% to win versus Kalshi's 25¢; Lions at 35% to win versus Kalshi's 33¢.
Every game below carries the model's win probability, the Kalshi price, and the gap between them — plus the straight-up winner and a projected score.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 16 Week 2 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Lions at Bills — Model winner: Bills (65%) · The play: Lions ≤ 33¢
- Panthers at Falcons — Model winner: Panthers (55%)
- Saints at Ravens — Model winner: Ravens (77%)
- Vikings at Bears — Model winner: Bears (69%)
- Bengals at Texans — Model winner: Texans (60%)
- Steelers at Patriots — Model winner: Patriots (69%)
- Packers at Jets — Model winner: Packers (62%)
- Browns at Buccaneers — Model winner: Buccaneers (77%)
- Eagles at Titans — Model winner: Eagles (73%) · The play: Titans ≤ 25¢
- Jaguars at Broncos — Model winner: Broncos (59%)
- Raiders at Chargers — Model winner: Chargers (73%)
- Seahawks at Cardinals — Model winner: Seahawks (65%)
- Commanders at Cowboys — Model winner: Cowboys (62%) · The play: Commanders ≤ 35¢
- Dolphins at 49ers — Model winner: 49ers (88%)
- Colts at Chiefs — Model winner: Chiefs (72%)
- Giants at Rams — Model winner: Rams (73%)
All 16 Week 2 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market → — the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.
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Week 2 straight-up picks
16 market favorites and 0 upsets across 16 games. The model sides with the market favorite in every game.
- Bills over Lions65%67.5¢
- Panthers over Falcons55%56.5¢
- Ravens over Saints77%78.5¢
- Bears over Vikings69%67.5¢
- Texans over Bengals60%58.5¢
- Patriots over Steelers69%68.5¢
- Packers over Jets62%63.5¢
- Buccaneers over Browns77%78.5¢
- Eagles over Titans73%75.5¢
- Broncos over Jaguars59%58.5¢
- Chargers over Raiders73%72.5¢
- Seahawks over Cardinals65%65.5¢
- Cowboys over Commanders62%65.5¢
- 49ers over Dolphins88%88.5¢
- Chiefs over Colts72%72.5¢
- Rams over Giants73%74.5¢
Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.
Week 2 projected scores
- LionsatBills22.7–26.649.4
- PanthersatFalcons24.9–21.045.9
- SaintsatRavens19.3–25.044.3
- VikingsatBears19.6–25.545.1
- BengalsatTexans19.4–23.542.9
- SteelersatPatriots19.8–26.846.6
- PackersatJets24.7–22.146.8
- BrownsatBuccaneers17.7–22.039.7
- EaglesatTitans22.2–19.241.4
- JaguarsatBroncos22.6–23.345.9
- RaidersatChargers17.3–23.741.0
- SeahawksatCardinals26.2–20.446.6
- CommandersatCowboys25.2–29.855.0
- Dolphinsat49ers22.4–29.051.4
- ColtsatChiefs22.4–25.147.5
- GiantsatRams21.6–29.050.5
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
WAS
-1.5
DAL
+1.4
PHI
+2.4
TEN
-3.7
DET
+2.5
BUF
+3.8
What moved on Kalshi since yesterday
Change in the Kalshi contract price for that side to win, in cents of probability, between the two most recent daily captures (as of September 16, 2026). A move is a price change, not a call.
NFL Week 2 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 2 2026?
Our DAEPA model disagrees with the Kalshi price by 5 points or more on 3 of 16 Week 2 games. The biggest gap is Commanders at Cowboys, where the pick is the Commanders at a 38% model win probability against a Kalshi price of 35¢. Every game's pick, model line and edge is in the board above.
How are these NFL Week 2 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who wins straight up in NFL Week 2 2026?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 16 Week 2 games, with its win probability. Bills over Lions (65%); Panthers over Falcons (55%); Ravens over Saints (77%); Bears over Vikings (69%); Texans over Bengals (60%); Patriots over Steelers (69%); Packers over Jets (62%); Buccaneers over Browns (77%); Eagles over Titans (73%); Broncos over Jaguars (59%); Chargers over Raiders (73%); Seahawks over Cardinals (65%); Cowboys over Commanders (62%); 49ers over Dolphins (88%); Chiefs over Colts (72%); Rams over Giants (73%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 2?
Projected scores, winner first: Bills 26.6, Lions 22.7; Panthers 24.9, Falcons 21.0; Ravens 25.0, Saints 19.3; Bears 25.5, Vikings 19.6; Texans 23.5, Bengals 19.4; Patriots 26.8, Steelers 19.8; Packers 24.7, Jets 22.1; Buccaneers 22.0, Browns 17.7; Eagles 22.2, Titans 19.2; Broncos 23.3, Jaguars 22.6; Chargers 23.7, Raiders 17.3; Seahawks 26.2, Cardinals 20.4; Cowboys 29.8, Commanders 25.2; 49ers 29.0, Dolphins 22.4; Chiefs 25.1, Colts 22.4; Rams 29.0, Giants 21.6. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) — the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 2 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.