Updated · market price
Thursday, September 10, 2026 · Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne, Australia (neutral site)
Quick Answer
Final (Thursday, September 10, 2026): San Francisco 49ers 27, Los Angeles Rams 7 — NFL Week 1, 2026. Our pre-game model had the Rams by 4 (63% to win); the 49ers won, so that call missed. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
San Francisco 49ers 27, Los Angeles Rams 7Final
Model call: MISSOur pre-game model had the Rams by 4 (63% to win). The 49ers won — that call missed.
Closing-line value on the Rams: 0c — we archived the Rams at 65c on Sep 4; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 65c on Sep 10. The market did not move on our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
1 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 13.2pp on Rams moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
In front of 100,021 at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, the team that flew in a week early beat the team that flew in a day early, and it was not close. Brock Purdy threw three touchdowns, Matthew Stafford was pulled with the game gone, and the trench read that framed our preview — the Rams’ pass rush, the Rams’ ground game — ran the other way in both directions.
49ers 27—Rams 7
Final✗ Call missedOur model had the Rams by 4 on a neutral field, a 63% win probability, and the market agreed almost to the cent: the last Kalshi price in our archive, twelve hours before kickoff, had the Rams at 65c. That gap sits inside our five-point threshold, so no game-level position was ever published on this page — the moneyline grade above is a model miss, not a position loss. It is still a miss, and a large one: a 63% favorite lost by twenty. The preview said the ground game runs one direction. It did, toward San Francisco — 174 rushing yards to 122, Christian McCaffrey at 6.8 a carry and a rookie, Kaelon Black, at 4.6 in his debut. The preview also had the Rams’ interior rush as the game’s real edge, and Myles Garrett finished with five pressures and not a single tackle, which is exactly the pattern the Garrett–Williams unit described and not the outcome it implied. On the player board, the final pre-kickoff run carried six published calls across ten strikes. Three resolved our way: Purdy over 1.5 passing touchdowns (he threw three), George Kittle under 3.5 receptions (one), and Puka Nacua under 6.5 and under 7.5 receptions (five). Three did not: Blake Corum under 29.5, 39.5 and 49.5 rushing yards, all three STRONG against a projection of 32.9 — he ran for 54 on ten carries in a near-even split with Kyren Williams, and the split is the miss; Purdy under 14.5 and 19.5 rushing yards, and he scrambled five times for 29 including an 18-yarder; and Tyler Higbee over 1.5 receptions, who caught one and lost a fumble. Two earlier boards carried Mike Evans over 3.5 receptions and Purdy over 0.5 passing touchdowns; both resolved over, both were superseded before kickoff, and neither is counted. Four Purdy passing-yards strikes also sit in the ledger and all four would have resolved under; they do not count either. Passing yards is a suppressed stat — the pipeline prices and grades it, the board never shows it — and a call nobody could see is not a record. WATCH rows are graded apart from all of this, as they always are; the two De’Zhaun Stribling strikes that tier held back were the right ones to hold, because he was carted off in the second quarter.
Q1
San Francisco took the ball 65 yards on its first possession and settled for an Eddy Piñeiro field goal. Los Angeles answered with a Kyren Williams touchdown run for a 7-3 lead — the only lead it held and the only points it scored. Nothing about the opening exchange suggested the next three quarters.
Q2
Quentin Lake picked off Purdy; Renardo Green — limited all week with a hamstring in our preview, and playing — picked off Stafford on a throw meant for Puka Nacua. In between, Purdy found Demarcus Robinson for a 39-yard touchdown and a 10-7 halftime lead. The score said one possession. The first-half possession and yardage said something else.
Q3
Purdy threw a short touchdown to Evans in the back corner of the end zone for 17-7, and Evans finished his debut with six catches. Los Angeles then drove to the San Francisco 1 and, on fourth-and-goal, Stafford was stopped for no gain by Gracen Halton and Fred Warner. A touchdown there is a three-point game with a quarter to play. Instead the Rams handed the ball back at the 1.
Q4
The stand at the 1 became a 99-yard drive that Purdy finished with a 15-yard touchdown to Samuel early in the fourth quarter, 24-7. Warner then forced a fumble from Tyler Higbee that Keion White recovered, Piñeiro converted from 56, and Stafford gave way to Stetson Bennett with the game decided. Sean McVay afterwards: “They outplayed us in every facet.”
Reporting verified 2026-09-11. Further sources: NFL.com — what we learned from San Francisco’s 27-7 win · ESPN — box score · NBC Sports Bay Area — what we learned · ABC News (Australia) — NFL Melbourne live blog · 49ers Webzone — recap
The model and the market agree on who is favored here. They disagree about how the game gets played — and the reason sits in the interior of two offensive lines, in a slot cornerback matchup that already went badly once, and in the fact that neither team has ever played a football game at 10:35 in the morning.
Rams pass rush · 49ers left tackle
This is the marquee duel of the opening week and it is close to a coin flip. Garrett arrived in Los Angeles in the June trade that sent Jared Verse to Cleveland, and he is a full participant off the knee. Williams, at 38, graded third among all tackles last season. Their history is the tell: over their last two meetings Garrett generated a pile of pressure and almost nothing that showed up on the stat sheet.
Rams interior rush · 49ers interior protection
This is the actual soft spot, and it is the one Los Angeles is built to attack. Ben Bartch and Spencer Burford both left in free agency, and as of the final practice the job was still open between a rookie and a second-year player who graded 66th among guards over six starts last season — with the coordinator saying on the record they may simply rotate. Kobie Turner and Braden Fiske do not need an invitation. Aaron Donald being ruled out removes the headline name from that interior, not the problem.
49ers pass rush · Rams protection
Twenty sacks in a full season is the number that frames this whole game, and San Francisco lost most of the production behind it over the offseason. Nick Bosa plays, but he is three games removed from a torn ACL and was limited every day this week. Alfred Collins tore a patellar tendon in practice in Melbourne and is gone for the year. The one genuinely new look is Osa Odighizuwa, acquired from Dallas, who generated more pressure by himself last season than San Francisco's four returning interior linemen combined.
Source: Sports Illustrated — the 49ers need a veteran pass rusher
Rams pass offense · 49ers nickel
The two teams played twice last season and the slot was where it broke open both times. Nacua is the highest-leverage matchup on the field for Los Angeles and San Francisco's answer is a second-year nickel giving up size. There is a second problem behind it: Renardo Green was limited all week with a hamstring, and if he cannot go, San Francisco starts Jack Jones on the boundary and the coverage gets thinner still.
Source: CBS Sports — 2025 game recaps
49ers pass offense · Rams boundary
Los Angeles rebuilt its secondary in one offseason, taking McDuffie and Jaylen Watson out of Kansas City and letting Cobie Durant, Ahkello Witherspoon and Darious Williams go. McDuffie has been one of the steadiest corners in the league for four straight seasons. Evans is the counterweight San Francisco signed for exactly this, coming off a down year by his own standards and a camp spent managing soft-tissue issues. These two have never lined up across from each other.
Run offense vs run defense, both ways
Los Angeles finished first in the league in rushing success rate behind an offensive line that finished fourth in run-block win rate, and it has a real two-man rotation in Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. San Francisco has Christian McCaffrey coming off a Comeback Player of the Year season and a league-leading 413 touches — and a run-blocking unit with an unsettled left guard, running at a front that was second in the league at stopping first-down runs. The way San Francisco sidesteps that is by throwing to McCaffrey rather than handing to him.
Neutral site · body clock
This is the first NFL regular-season game played in Australia, at a cricket ground, and local kickoff is Friday morning. The two teams attacked it in opposite ways. San Francisco flew a full week early — Kyle Shanahan's stated view is that you do not feel normal until the third or fourth day. Los Angeles left Tuesday night and lands roughly a day before kickoff, deliberately keeping the roster on Pacific time, which is the same approach that has the Rams unbeaten in international games. Nobody has a sample size that says which is right.
| Number | Points | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Market | 48.5 | Consensus across books on game day, with the spread at Rams −3.5 after opening −2.5. |
| Our ratings | 53.8 | What our power ratings imply on their own: the league baseline plus both offensive ratings, less both defensive ratings. Los Angeles grades 1st on offense and San Francisco 31st on defense, and that pairing is what pushes it. This is a ratings derivation, not a stored engine total — the fair-value row for this game carries no total centre, which is why the page above publishes none. |
| Fair | 49.6 | The number we would actually trade off: the market total, moved one fifth of the way toward the ratings. That weighting is the same one the Combo Edge Builder uses, and it exists because our game model has never been shown to beat a closing number on its own. |
A lean to the over of about a point. That is a direction, not a position — it is inside the noise, and we say so rather than dressing it up.
Reporting verified 2026-09-10. Further sources: Rams — Aaron Donald out, Myles Garrett ready · ESPN — Alfred Collins out for the season · Sharp Football — Week 1 49ers/Rams worksheet · Rams — Week 1 depth chart breakdown
SF
+1.0
LAR
+5.1
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 1 card free, every game priced against our model.
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49ers
37%
model win prob
Rams
63%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
46%
Madden 27
54%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Rams −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Every Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — the Oracle calls above are the opinion.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 3+ rec | 92.5¢ | off-ladder | — | over · DK 85.1¢under · Kalshi 9.6¢ |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5+ rec | 29.5¢ | off-ladder | — | over · DK 21.1¢under · Kalshi 76.3¢ |
See all 2 priced prop strikes for this game on the board →+ 310 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
The schedule flags this one as a neutral-site game, which changes how the number is built. The model zeroes out the usual 2.5-point home adjustment, so the line is pure ratings: +5.1 for the Rams against +1.0 for the 49ers, giving the Rams by 4 and 63% to win. The Rams are the designated home team on paper only. Take home field out and the ratings gap is all that is left — which is why this number is a full 2.5 points different from what the same matchup would price at in Los Angeles.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +4.3 (1st of 32) against a 49ers defense at -3.0 (31st) — 7.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the 49ers offense (+3.1, 6th) meets the Rams defense (+0.7, 7th), a 2.5-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the 49ers grade +0.9, 4th in the league, against +0.2 (22nd) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Rams at 10.6 wins (favored in 16 of 17) and the 49ers at 8.9 (favored in 8) — 1.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 9th-hardest game on the Rams' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the 49ers'.
On the standings side, NFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 14, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC West race.
Scheduling note: this is a Thursday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 63% on the Rams here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR contract implies 50% for the Rams against our 63% — a 13.2-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Rams as the value side.
Full division picture on the NFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game model number was 63% for the Rams. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Rams | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50% 50c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 65% 65c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
San Francisco 49ers 27, Los Angeles Rams 7 — final, played Thursday, September 10, 2026; our pre-game model had the Rams by 4 (63% to win), and the 49ers won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff our power-rating model favored the Rams by 4 points, a 63% win probability over the 49ers. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
No. The schedule flags it as a neutral-site game, so the model applies zero home-field points instead of the usual 2.5. The Rams are the designated home team for scheduling purposes only. The resulting line — Rams by 4 — is the raw ratings gap between +5.1 and +1.0.
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Rams YES is quoted around 50c against our 63% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams meet at Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne, Australia on Thursday, September 10, 2026, NFL Week 1. The Rams are the designated home team, so the game does not carry home-field advantage in our model.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Rams at 10.6 wins (favored in 16) and the 49ers at 8.9 (favored in 8). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Rams' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the 49ers', by model win probability.
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR. The Rams YES contract sits around 50c, which is an implied 50% — against our model's 63%. That is a 13.2pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
This game has been played, so the Week 1 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Rams at 63% over the 49ers sit in that band, off a 4-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 63% against a market price implying 50%, an edge of +13.2 points. Model 63% vs market 50% on LAR. We rate it attack, sized at 6.6% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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They run it back in Week 14. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. 49ers–Rams, Week 14 →
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
