Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 18, 2026): Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 — NFL Week 6, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Chiefs by 7.5 (75% to win); the Chiefs won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Chiefs at 78c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Chiefs by 7.5 (75% to win). The Chiefs won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Chiefs: -3c — we archived the Chiefs at 81c on Oct 11; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 78c on Oct 18. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
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No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Walker scored from 33 yards in the first quarter and from 2 late in the second, and Kansas City led 19-3 at halftime against a Chargers team missing Joe Alt, Kayode Awosika and Tre’ Harris and then losing Ladd McConkey to a concussion. Justin Herbert threw an interception to Jack Cochrane, KeAndre Lambert-Smith lost a fourth-quarter fumble, and Los Angeles (0-6) reached the end zone zero times. Harrison Butker missed an extra point and a 52-yard field goal. DraftKings opened Kansas City −2.5 and closed it −7.5; the Chiefs won by 16, and 28 points finished under both the opening 46.5 and the closing 41.5.
Chargers 6—Chiefs 22
Final✓ Call hitThe chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had Kansas City at 74.7%: the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 7.5-point line, and the Chiefs won. The model’s own read was Kansas City by 5.43, a 2.07-point lean toward the Chargers, tier WATCH, and the Chiefs won by 16: the lean was wrong, graded apart from the record. The quarterback gate read PASS. The ledger holds one live position here, and it lost on the score: a Chargers game winner, MODERATE, 3.84-point edge, YES at 21.5¢, closed 21.5¢, CLV 0. The Chargers did not lead at any point. Two other rows on this game were voided before kickoff and count in neither direction: a HIGH Chargers game winner on 2026-10-12 and a total at the 41 rung on 2026-10-16. The final pre-kickoff board carried no PLAY rows. Fifteen visible WATCH rows went 10-5. The losses were all rushing unders: Walker under 79.5, 89.5 and 99.5 yards lost on 128, and Patrick Mahomes under 9.5 and 14.5 lost on 16. The wins were Walker under 24.5 receiving yards and under 3.5 and 4.5 catches (two for 11), all three Keaton Mitchell unders (no catches), Omarion Hampton over 1.5 catches (four), Oronde Gadsden II over 1.5 catches and 14.5 yards (three for 17) and Emmett Johnson over 1.5 catches (two). No suppressed rows sat on this game.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 5 to 41.5; the game landed on 28.
Q1
Kansas City opened with a seven-play, 41-yard drive for Butker’s 44-yard field goal, and on its next possession Walker ran up the middle for a 33-yard touchdown. Butker’s extra point went wide left. The Chargers answered with an 11-play, 60-yard drive that stalled for Cameron Dicker’s 23-yarder.
Q2
Herbert’s throw for Lambert-Smith was intercepted by Cochrane at the Kansas City 35 and returned 48 yards to the Chargers 17, but Mahomes gave it back on the next drive, intercepted in the end zone for a touchback. Kansas City then went 80 yards in eight plays for Walker’s two-yard touchdown, and Butker’s 50-yarder with two seconds left made it 19-3. McConkey was ruled out with a concussion in the quarter, per the AP.
Q3
Los Angeles opened the second half with a nine-play, 60-yard drive inside the Kansas City 15, but a run went nowhere and Herbert threw two incompletions, and Dicker kicked a 30-yarder for 19-6. The Chiefs answered with seven plays and 62 yards and turned it over on downs, one of the short-yardage failures the AP singled out.
Q4
Butker’s 52-yard try went wide right early in the fourth quarter. On the Chargers’ next possession Lambert-Smith fumbled and Kansas City recovered at its own 38, and the Chiefs drove 50 yards in 11 plays, taking 5:51, for Butker’s 30-yarder with 3:52 left. The Chargers’ last drive ended on downs.
AP via ESPN — Chiefs move to 5-0 as Kenneth Walker runs for two TDs in a 22-6 win over Chargers
Reporting verified 2026-10-18. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Chiefs move to 5-0 as Kenneth Walker runs for two TDs in a 22-6 win over Chargers
The Chargers are 0-5 with the league’s worst offensive EPA, a left tackle in a neck brace, a right tackle on injured reserve and a quarterback pressured on nearly half his dropbacks. The obvious conclusion is that Kansas City’s rush ends it early, except Kansas City does not have a rush — three sacks in four games. What the Chiefs have is Walker at 6.2 a carry against a top-ten run defense that lost two linebackers to limited practice, and an offense that has given the ball away twice all year against one that has done it thirteen times. Our lean sits with the Chargers against the number, at WATCH tier, and we think it is stale.
Chiefs pass rush · Chargers pass protection
Start with the Chargers’ side because it is grim. Rashawn Slater had ankle surgery and is on injured reserve; Joe Alt’s neck kept him out of the Denver game and out of Wednesday’s practice; Kayode Awosika (fibula) did not practise either; Tyler Biadasz and Trey Pipkins were lost earlier. Against Denver four rookies played on the line and three made their first NFL start — fourth-round right tackle Travis Burke, Alex Harkey, Jake Slaughter at centre — and Herbert was sacked five times, twice by Nik Bonitto. For the season he has been sacked 17 times on 143 attempts, a 10.6% rate, pressured on 46.9% of dropbacks and hit on a league-high 20.6%. Now the other side: Kansas City has three sacks in four games, the fewest in the NFL. George Karlaftis has ten quarterback hits and zero sacks, Chris Jones has none, and the single-sack men are Felix Anudike-Uzomah, rookie R Mason Thomas and cornerback Nohl Williams. Harbaugh said the rookies "did really well in protection" in Denver and Burke posted the best run-blocking grade of any lineman in that game. A broken line against a rush that cannot finish is closer to even than the records suggest.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Chargers–Chiefs Week 6 worksheet
Chiefs run offense · Chargers run defense
This is the real matchup and it is strength on strength. Walker, acquired from Seattle in the offseason, has 537 rushing yards in four games — second in the league — at 6.2 a carry with a 60-yard touchdown against Denver and two games over 170; he has four rushing scores and two more receiving. Kansas City is running on 47% of snaps with Mahomes under centre at a career-high rate, and the play-action that comes off it is where Mahomes is living: 32-of-46 for 407 yards and four touchdowns. The Chargers’ defense is the part of this roster that has done its job — tenth in yards allowed, 3.8 a carry on the ground, opponents converting 31% on third down (5th) and scoring touchdowns on 52% of red-zone trips (10th) — and it is seventh in EPA per play despite starting drives behind short fields all year. But Daiyan Henley (knee) and Dalvin Tomlinson (hamstring) were limited Wednesday, Derwin James (hamstring) did not practise and is expected to miss, and Khalil Mack is 35 and resting on Wednesdays. If Walker gets going, Kansas City never has to ask its three-sack rush to win the game.
Ball security · both offenses
Strip the matchups away and the season reads as one number. Los Angeles has given the ball away thirteen times in five games — seven Herbert interceptions on a league-high 6.5% rate, six lost fumbles, two of them Herbert’s — and has allowed 44 points off those turnovers, tied for the most in football. Put sacks and turnovers together and the Chargers lose six a game, worst in the league; Kansas City loses two, second-best. The Chiefs themselves have given it away twice all season, both interceptions, while the defense has taken it away seven times with four picks, a plus-five margin that is second in the NFL. The Chargers’ own defense has eight takeaways and has been respectable, but it keeps walking back on to the field forty yards from its goal line. An offense at 1.40 points per drive, 31st, cannot afford to spot a 2.70-per-drive offense free possessions, and it has done exactly that every week.
Source: Yahoo Sports — Chargers Week 6 vs. Chiefs: 5 things to know (2026-10-14)
Both pass offenses · the receiver and tackle picture
The Chargers’ receiving corps on Wednesday: Tre’ Harris (hamstring) did not practise and leads the team with 25 targets; Ladd McConkey (foot) and Quentin Johnston (chest) were limited; Marquez Valdes-Scantling (rib) and KeAndre Lambert-Smith (hamstring, practice window just opened) were limited; David Njoku is on injured reserve. The club held receiver tryouts Tuesday and signed one to the practice squad. Charlie Kolar, the one full participant, was the leading target in Denver with three catches. Kansas City’s pass defense allows 11.7 passing points a game, fifth, and L’Jarius Sneed was limited on a maintenance plan rather than hurt. Across the line of scrimmage two things matter for the Chiefs: Rice (hamstring/knee) was the only player who did not practise, and left tackle Josh Simmons — out since training camp with a bulging disk, last on the field in August — was a limited participant for the first time, with Reid easing him back. Undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson has started every game in his place; whichever of them faces Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu (two sacks, eight hits) on Sunday is the one protection question Kansas City has.
Reporting verified 2026-10-15. Further sources: chargers.com — Chargers vs. Chiefs injury report: McConkey, Henley and Molden among 13 limited (official, 2026-10-14) · chargers.com — A Chargers–Chiefs preview ahead of Week 6 (Harbaugh on the rookie line, 2026-10-14) · A to Z Sports — Chiefs’ first injury report for Week 6 vs. Chargers: Rice, Simmons (2026-10-14) · Yahoo Sports — Chargers first injury report of Week 6: 5 players did not practice (2026-10-14) · Yahoo Sports — Chargers Week 6 vs. Chiefs: 5 things to know (2026-10-14) · KCTV5 — Wounded, winless Chargers share lengthy injury report ahead of Chiefs matchup (2026-10-14) · Chargers On SI — state of the Chargers’ offensive line after the Alt and Slater news (2026-10-10) · KY3 / AP — Chiefs LT Josh Simmons out with a bulging disk, timetable uncertain (2026-09-30) · Sharp Football Analysis — Chargers–Chiefs Week 6 worksheet · FantasyData — Broncos at Chargers Week 5 box score (2026-10-11) · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Los Angeles Chargers · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Kansas City Chiefs
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
LAC
-3.2
KC
+0.4
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Chargers
25%
fair value (books)
Chiefs
75%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
36%
Madden 27
64%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 — the graded call is above.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs is a AFC West game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 17. The model has the Chiefs by 5.5 (65%) off a +0.4 to -3.2 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC West, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Chiefs grade -1.0 on that side of the ball (16th of 32) against a Chargers offense at -3.5 (32nd) — 2.5 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Chiefs offense (+1.3, 12th) meets the Chargers defense (+0.2, 8th), a 1.1-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 17, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC West race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Chiefs at 10.6 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Chargers at 4.4 (favored in 3) — 6.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Chiefs' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Chargers'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 27-21 in the Chiefs' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Chargers won 16-13 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Chiefs are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 65% on the Chiefs here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18LACKC, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Full division picture on the AFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 75% for the Chiefs. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Chiefs | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 79% 79c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 — final, played Sunday, October 18, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Chiefs by 7.5 (75% to win), and the Chiefs won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Chiefs by 7.5 points, a 75% win probability over the Chargers. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT18LACKC market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 17. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Chiefs by 5.5 on ratings and home field alone.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18LACKC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Chiefs at 73c or below, or the Chargers at 23c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Los Angeles Chargers visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chiefs at 10.6 wins (favored in 10) and the Chargers at 4.4 (favored in 3). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Chiefs' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Chargers', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18LACKC, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 6 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT18LACKC has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Chiefs at 65% over the Chargers sit in that band, off a 5.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 25% against a market price implying 22%, an edge of +3.3 points. Model 25% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 22% on LAC — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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They run it back in Week 17. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Chargers–Chiefs, Week 17 →
Seahawks at BroncosModel: even
Texans at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −2.5
Bears at FalconsModel: Falcons −0.5
Ravens at BrownsModel: Browns −4.5
Titans at ColtsModel: Colts −6.5
Jets at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8.5
Saints at GiantsModel: Giants −0.5
Panthers at EaglesModel: Panthers −1.5
Steelers at BuccaneersModel: Steelers −2
Cardinals at RamsModel: Rams −9.5
Bills at RaidersModel: Bills −3
Cowboys at PackersModel: Packers −4.5
Commanders at 49ersModel: 49ers −7The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
