Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, December 13, 2026 · Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH

Chiefs

33%

model win prob

Bengals

67%

model win prob

Model line

Bengals −6

Kalshi (Bengals)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Bengals — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Kansas City Chiefs-4.031stBelow Avg

Cincinnati Bengals-0.519thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 14, the Kansas City Chiefs travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Bengals 19th of 32 (Average tier, -0.5) and the Chiefs 31st (Below Avg tier, -4.0). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Bengals by 6 — a 67% win probability for the Bengals.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 67% (Bengals) / 33% (Chiefs) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Chiefs vs Bengals — frequently asked

Who is favored in Chiefs vs Bengals in Week 14?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Bengals by 6 points and gives them a 67% win probability over the Chiefs. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Chiefs vs Bengals?

Home win probability 67% (Bengals), away 33% (Chiefs). That comes from a power-rating differential of +3.5 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Bengals rate 19th of 32 (Average tier), the Chiefs 31st (Below Avg tier).

Can you trade Chiefs vs Bengals on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.