Los Angeles Rams: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge
Board as of · prices live
The prediction-market read on the Rams: our 10,000-season simulation projects 10.5 wins in 2026 (3rd of 32, Contender tier; raw model 10.6), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and NFC West standing below.
2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi
Los Angeles Rams
± 2.0 · 3rd of 32
Model agrees with the market
Divergence is projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line, in wins — MODERATE on the one ladder every season-wins surface grades on (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); OVER / UNDER fires at ±2.0. Projected wins are the 10,000-season simulation mean; the raw model reads 10.6. No single rung sits near 50¢.
See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
The consensus spread
Three independent estimates of the same season on one line: the expected wins implied by the live Kalshi ladder, our 10,000-season simulation, and EA’s Madden 27 simulation. Where they disagree is the whole signal.
Both independent models sit on the same side of the market line — our sim at 10.46 and the Madden simulation at 9.98 against 11.53 implied wins. That is the cleanest version of this signal.
Madden and our model broadly agree on the Rams — 4th on talent against 3rd on play-by-play.
Where the season actually lands
A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position — the full distribution against the contract line can. Bars are the Madden 27 simulation over 10,000 seasons; the dashed marker is the live contract.
of clearing 11.53
-12.3pp vs a coin flip
Our probability from the 10,000-season simulation (mean 10.46 wins; raw model 10.63 ± 1.96). Bars: Madden 27 sim-2026, 10,000 iterations. Two methods, no shared inputs.
The Ladder — Rams
All ladders →The season simulation at every Kalshi win-total rung, then the widest player-prop gap on this club this week. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the simulation alone.
We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | thin |
| 2+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | thin |
| 3+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | thin |
| 4+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | thin |
| 5+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | thin |
| 6+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | thin |
| 7+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | thin |
| 8+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 9+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 10+ wins | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| 11+ wins | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| 12+ wins | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| 13+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 14+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 15+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 16+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 17+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Books | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5+ rec | 🔒 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Books | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ rec | 🔒 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Market edges
The season contract and the single game most likely to move it, graded on the same thresholds every other Gridiron Edge surface uses.
Season wins under 11.53
Our 10,000-season simulation projects 10.46 (raw model 10.63), the Madden 27 simulation 9.98, against 11.53 market-implied wins — a -1.07-win gap. MODERATE on the wins ladder (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); a side is flagged only at the 2.0-win STRONG rung, so the honest read is no position.
Week 4 at Eagles
The truest coin flip on the schedule at 51%. Games this close are where a season win total is actually decided — and where a live in-week contract is most likely to be mispriced. Full read →
Informational only. Contracts can settle at $0 — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Power rating breakdown
Diverging from league average rather than four flat numbers, so a positive reads as a positive at a glance. Points per game.
Overall +5.1 ranks 3rd of 32 (Contender tier). How Rams rank on the points scale → Re-weight the model yourself →
Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (59.6% backtested straight-up accuracy across 3,266 games, no market line used).
The season path
Seventeen weeks as a heat ribbon — the shape of the season in one glance, each cell linking to that game’s full read. The sortable table stays below it.
Roster shape vs the league
Nine position groups against league average. Each axis is scaled on its own league range — a shared 0-100 scale flattens every roster into the same circle.
Dashed violet ring = league average. Number chip = rank of 32. Source: Madden 27 launch team composites (derived unit aggregates, no per-player data).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Our % is the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=14.4 — those 17 numbers sum to the raw model's 10.6 wins; the 10.5-win headline above is the 10,000-season simulation, which adds rating uncertainty (and fits its own home-field, 2.0) on top of these same ratings. Madden % is the same question asked of Madden 27 talent composites, a model that shares none of our inputs.
Rams player props vs the Kalshi line
Our projection against the live Kalshi contract. Every prop is an “X or more” contract that pays $1 if the player gets there, so the price of the side we call, in cents,is the market’s implied probability — the edge is the gap between that and ours, in percentage points. Closest strike to our projection first.
| Player | Contract | Call | Our odds | Mkt | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka NacuaWR | 7+ receptionsover 6.5 | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG |
| Kyren WilliamsRB | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE |
| Kyren WilliamsRB | 15+ rec ydsover 14.5 | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE |
| Blake CorumRB | 40+ rush ydsover 39.5 | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH |
All 54 player-prop edges for Week 1 →Locked numbers are Pro.
Rams props: where the market prices are
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — the Oracle calls above are the opinion.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante AdamsLAR v SF | 5+ rec | 43.5¢ | 47% | -3.7¢ | over · Kalshi 45.7¢under · DK 55¢ |
| Colby ParkinsonLAR v SF | 3+ rec | 39.5¢ | 41% | -1.8¢ | over · Novig 40¢under · ProphetX 60¢ |
| Puka NacuaLAR v SF | 8+ rec | 41.5¢ | 43% | -1.8¢ | over · Kalshi 44.7¢under · DK 58¢ |
| Puka NacuaLAR v SF | 90+ rec yds | 50.0¢ | 52% | -1.7¢ | over · BetRivers 53.9¢under · ESPN Bet 50¢ |
| Blake CorumLAR v SF | 15+ rush yds | 84.0¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
| Blake CorumLAR v SF | 20+ rush yds | 75.5¢ | off-ladder | — | over · Kalshi 80.2¢ |
| Blake CorumLAR v SF | 25+ rush yds | 71.5¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
| Blake CorumLAR v SF | 30+ rush yds | 63.5¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
See all 58 priced prop strikes on the board →+ 49 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
NFC West ladder
Projected wins across the division, leader in gold — and four internal reads a click away.
Seahawks
10.8
+5.5
Rams
10.5
+5.1
49ers
8.9
+1.0
Cardinals
6.6
-3.7
Model has the Rams 2nd in the NFC West. Division hub →
10,000-season simulation
How it works →Our own preseason board, played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times with the league's actual tiebreaker procedure. The projection above is the middle of this; these are the odds around it. The sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games) — a separate fit from the +2.5 the game model uses on matchup pages.
Sim average wins
10.5
10,000 seasons · 65% reach 10+
Make playoffs
67%
9% win 6 or fewer
Win division
36%
12% take the 1 seed
Win Super Bowl
8.1%
3rd of 32 · 14% reach it
The Rams draw a 0.504 opponent win rate — the 12th-hardest schedule in the league.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings. Real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule. No injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices.
Madden 27 outlook
Full board →A second opinion, built from Madden 27 launch ratings alone and played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times. It knows nothing about our own model — which is what makes the disagreement worth reading.
Madden rank
4
84.1 composite · QB 99
Simulated wins
10.0
58% reach 10+
Playoffs
61%
33% win division
Super Bowl
6.8%
SoS 0.513 (6th hardest)
Madden and our model broadly agree on the Rams — 4th on talent against 3rd on play-by-play.
Madden-only inputs — no injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices. Average error on a season win total is 2.27 wins, so the distribution is the product, not the mean. The 10,000-season simulation →
Rams 2026 — frequently asked
What is the Los Angeles Rams win total for 2026?
The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 11.5 wins for the Rams in 2026. Our 10,000-season simulation on our DAEPA power ratings projects 10.5 wins — a 1.1-win agreement with the market (MODERATE on our wins ladder).
Where do the Rams rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The Rams sit at a +5.1-point power rating — 3rd of 32 — in the Contender tier. That rating (offense +4.3, defense +0.7, special teams +0.2) is the input behind every Rams prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade Los Angeles Rams games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Rams season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the Rams in for 2026?
The Rams play in the NFC West, alongside Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks. Our model has them projected 2nd in the NFC West on 10.5 expected wins.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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