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Home/NFL/Week 7/Broncos vs Cardinals
Gridiron EdgeWeek 7 · 2026

Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16

Final. Cardinals' next game: Cardinals vs Cowboys, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 25, 2026): Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 — NFL Week 7, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Broncos by 4.5 (65% to win); the Broncos won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Broncos at 67c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

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Settled

Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Broncos by 4.5 (65% to win). The Broncos won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Broncos: -1c — we archived the Broncos at 68c on Oct 18; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 67c on Oct 25. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 8 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 7 · 2026-10-26

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Cardinals moneylineModel 35% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 33% on ARI — kept as the pre-game record.33c35%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Broncos 30, Cardinals 16: Bo Nix’s 62-yard touchdown run and RJ Harvey’s 52-yard screen break open a game tied at 6 late in the first half

Four field goals left it 6-6 until Nix stepped up in the pocket and ran 62 yards for a touchdown with 3:43 left in the half, the longest run of his career. Harvey took a short screen 52 yards midway through the third quarter, Nix hit Marvin Mims Jr. for 47 to set up J.K. Dobbins’s touchdown at the end of the quarter, and Denver’s defense sacked Jacoby Brissett three times. Arizona has lost 10 straight home games. DraftKings opened Denver a 7.5-point favorite and closed it at 4.5; the Broncos won by 14, and 46 points finished over both the opening 43.5 and the closing 44.5.

Broncos 30—Cardinals 16

Final✓ Call hit

The chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had Denver at 65.5% (Arizona 34.5%): the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 4.5-point line. Denver won. The quarterback gate read PASS. The model’s own read was Denver by 2.7, a 1.8-point lean toward the Cardinals, tier NONE, and the Broncos won by 14: the lean was wrong. The ledger holds no live position; both of its rows, Cardinals moneylines at 29.5¢ (MODERATE, then HIGH), were voided on 2026-10-17 and 2026-10-18 (no_longer_edge) and count in neither direction. The final pre-kickoff board carried no PLAY rows. Twelve visible WATCH rows went 2-10 and are graded apart, never folded into the record. Nix’s three rushing unders (9.5, 14.5, 19.5) lost on 73 yards, after 37 rushing yards in his first six games, per the AP; both Harvey rushing overs (9.5, 19.5) lost on 6; Adam Trautman’s two overs (0.5 catches, 9.5 yards), Troy Franklin over 1.5 catches and Dobbins over 1.5 catches lost with no catches among them; and Kendrick Bourne over 3.5 catches lost (three). The wins: Nix under 1.5 touchdown passes (one) and Elijah Higgins over 1.5 catches (three). Two Nix passing-yards rows are suppressed stats the board never displayed, and they count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Broncos −7.5 → Broncos −4.5
Total
43.5 → 44.5
Moneyline
DEN −360 / ARI +285 → DEN −238 / ARI +195

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total rose 1 to 44.5; the game landed on 46.

How it happened

Q1

Ten first-quarter flags, a dropped touchdown and four field goals

Wil Lutz kicked from 48 and 43 yards in a first quarter with 10 penalties, five on each team, per the AP. Arizona settled for Chad Ryland’s 30-yarder after Bam Knight dropped a potential touchdown in the end zone on third down, and Ryland tied it at 6 from 26 at the end of a 14-play drive.

Ryland’s tying drive
14 plays · 65 yds · 7:55
Score
Broncos 6, Cardinals 6

AP via ESPN — Bo Nix runs for a 62-yard TD, leads Broncos past the Cardinals for a 30-16 win

Q3

Harvey’s 52-yard screen, McBride’s answer, and Dobbins on the last play of the quarter

Harvey caught a short screen and ran 52 yards untouched behind his blockers for a 20-6 lead. Trey McBride’s 7-yard touchdown catch cut it to 20-13, and Denver answered with a 76-yard drive, Nix to Mims for 47 and Dobbins from the 1 on the last play of the quarter.

Harvey TD drive
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:31
Dobbins TD drive
6 plays · 76 yds · 3:50
After three
Broncos 27, Cardinals 13

AP via ESPN — Bo Nix runs for a 62-yard TD, leads Broncos past the Cardinals for a 30-16 win

Q4

Two Arizona drives end on downs

Arizona turned it over on downs to start the fourth quarter and again at the end of a 13-play, 84-yard drive in the final four minutes, and finished 5 of 17 on third down. Lutz’s 31-yarder and Ryland’s 41-yarder closed the scoring, and Larry Fitzgerald was inducted into the Cardinals’ Ring of Honor at halftime.

Final
Broncos 30, Cardinals 16
Nix
15 of 29 · 222 yds · 1 TD · 7 carries · 73 yds · 1 TD
Brissett
27 of 48 · 272 yds · 1 TD · sacked 3 times
McBride
10 catches · 111 yds · 1 TD
Third down
ARI 5 of 17 · DEN 3 of 11

AP via ESPN — Bo Nix runs for a 62-yard TD, leads Broncos past the Cardinals for a 30-16 win

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. There is no live nfl_weekly_edges row for it (both Cardinals moneyline rows were voided before kickoff). Grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W7_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-25/prop-reconciliation-w07.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The preview on this page, last updated Thursday 2026-10-22, had Pat Surtain II limited in his first practice since Week 4 and called his ankle the swing variable. He was listed out (ankle sprain) and does not appear in the box score; the preview was not updated after the ruling.
  • The first-quarter penalty count, Knight’s dropped touchdown and the 10-game home losing streak are from the AP alone.
  • Malcolm Roach was evaluated for a concussion and returned, per the AP. Rookie running back Jeremiyah Love missed a second straight game with an ankle injury.
  • ESPN’s archived DraftKings line moved three points toward Arizona (Denver −7.5 to −4.5) before a 14-point Denver win. The core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, so this recap does not claim what moved it.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close.

Reporting verified 2026-10-25. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Bo Nix runs for a 62-yard TD, leads Broncos past the Cardinals for a 30-16 win

Denver cannot generate yards, Arizona cannot prevent them, and Surtain just came back

A 4-2 team whose record belongs entirely to its defense, against a 2-4 team that has conceded 37 a game through a four-game losing run. The interesting matchup is bad against bad: the league’s thirty-first offense by yards per play against the league’s worst pass defense by yards per attempt. Both quarterback rooms clear our gate.

Broncos pass offense · Cardinals coverage

The thirty-first offense by yards per play against the worst pass defense by yards per attempt

Close to even

This probably sets the ceiling on the game, and it is genuinely hard to call because both sides of it are bad. Denver is thirty-first in yards per play, twenty-ninth in success rate and twenty-fourth in expected points per play; Bo Nix is twenty-sixth among qualified quarterbacks in completion rate at 5.6 yards an attempt. Arizona allows 8.6 yards per pass, worst in the league. One of those two facts has to give. The reason to lean towards Arizona’s defect mattering more is volume: Denver does not need efficiency if Arizona concedes chunks, and Arizona has given up 37 points a game across its losing streak, which is not a pass-defense problem alone.

Bo Nix
60.3 completions, 26th among qualified quarterbacks · 5.6 yards an attempt — Field Level Media, 2026-10-21
Arizona pass defense
8.6 yards allowed per pass — worst in the league — Field Level Media, 2026-10-21
Denver offense
31st in yards per play, 29th in success rate, 24th in expected points per play — SI, 2026-10-20

Source: Field Level Media — Bo Nix, Broncos bring sputtering offense to face Cardinals (2026-10-21)

Broncos defense · Cardinals offense

Denver’s defense is the reason it is 4-2, and Surtain’s ankle is the swing variable

Edge: Broncos

Denver is ninth in expected points per play allowed and ninth in success rate allowed with ten takeaways, and that — not the offense — is the 4-2. Arizona’s offense is the inverse of its defense: ninth in success rate and fifteenth in expected points per play, efficient but capped. The thing to watch is availability. Pat Surtain II was limited on Wednesday, his first practice since Week 4, while Talanoa Hufanga (ankle) and Jonah Elliss (ankle) did not practice at all. A Denver defense with Surtain back is the better unit on the field; a Denver defense with Surtain limited and two others out, against an offense that is efficient on early downs, is a different proposition.

Denver defense
9th in expected points per play allowed and 9th in success rate allowed · 10 takeaways — SI, 2026-10-20
Arizona offense
9th in success rate, 15th in expected points per play — SI, 2026-10-20
Arizona’s run of form
37 points a game allowed during its four-game losing streak — Field Level Media, 2026-10-21

Source: denverbroncos.com — Injury report: CB Pat Surtain II returns to practice ahead of Week 7 (2026-10-21, 5:08 p.m.)

Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture

Eight Cardinals down, three Broncos down, and no designations yet

Close to even

Nix is not in doubt and says he is fully healthy after off-season ankle surgery; Brissett is not on the report at all. Gate: PASS. Denver DNPs: Tyler Badie (thumb), Hufanga (ankle), Elliss (ankle), with Surtain (ankle), Jaylen Waddle (chest) and Zach Allen (rest) limited, and Riley Moss and Jonah Coleman full. Arizona’s list is long and hard to read: eight DNPs including Budda Baker (groin and illness), Jeremiyah Love (ankle), Walter Nolen III (ankle), Garrett Williams (knee) and Andrew Wingard (knee), with Isaac Seumalo, Josh Sweat and Jedrick Wills Jr. down for rest or illness. Carson Beck, the backup quarterback, was limited with a back. The head coach declined to rule out Love, Nolen or Wingard.

Denver
DNP 3 · limited 3, including CB Pat Surtain II (ankle), first practice since Week 4 · full 2
Arizona
DNP 8 (Baker, Love, Nolen, Seumalo, Sweat, G. Williams, Wills, Wingard) · limited 3 including QB2 Carson Beck (back)
Not ruled out
Arizona’s head coach declined to rule out Love, Nolen or Wingard

Source: azcardinals.com — Injury report, Week 7 vs Broncos (2026-10-21)

What this read does not know

  • No Thursday report for either club and no game-status designations; the Arizona page carried no explicit publication timestamp.
  • Arizona’s own report spells Wingard’s first name two ways — "Dewey" in the body text, "Andrew" on the report itself. We used Andrew and flag it.
  • We could not verify any 2026 team sack total or rank for either club. The league’s 2026 sacks table returned a page whose columns were passing-offense statistics, so we discarded it entirely rather than print a number we could not stand behind.
  • How much of Arizona’s eight-man DNP list is injury and how much is rest is not established, which makes the Arizona side of this page the least reliable part of it.

Reporting verified 2026-10-22. Further sources: Field Level Media — Broncos bring sputtering offense to face Cardinals (2026-10-21) · SI — Broncos vs Cardinals, Week 7 preview (2026-10-20) · denverbroncos.com — Week 7 injury report, Surtain returns (2026-10-21) · azcardinals.com — Injury report, Week 7 vs Broncos (2026-10-21)

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 7 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 25
AWAY DEN +1.8
vs DEN -4.5
HOME ARI -4.4
Fair (books) · ARI 35% home win prob
Kalshi · ARI — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Glendale, AZ PASS — no position

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Broncos

65%

fair value (books)

Cardinals

35%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

50%

Madden 27

50%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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The Ladder — Broncos at Cardinals How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Broncos at CardinalsSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Broncos at Cardinals Kalshi spread ladder for Week 7: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Broncos–Cardinals spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Broncos vs Cardinals power ratings (Week 7) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Denver Broncos+1.89thPlayoff
    Arizona Cardinals-4.431stBelow Avg

    Broncos and Cardinals season outlook

    DENARI
    Average wins10.96.0
    Make playoffs79%4%
    Win division50%1%
    Win Super Bowl6.5%0.1%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Broncos vs Cardinals — player pages

    All players →

    Jaylen Waddle

    WR

    Trey McBride

    TE

    Michael Wilson

    WR

    Jeremiyah Love

    RB

    RJ Harvey

    RB

    Courtland Sutton

    WR

    Bo Nix

    QB

    J.K. Dobbins

    RB

    Tyler Allgeier

    RB

    Jacoby Brissett

    QB

    Jonah Coleman

    RB

    Kendrick Bourne

    WR

    Nate Adkins

    Reggie Virgil

    ARI Cardinals D/ST

    Bam Knight

    Simi Fehoko

    DEN Broncos D/ST

    Evan Engram

    Marvin Mims Jr.

    Troy Franklin

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: A 3-day rest edge, sized: Broncos at Cardinals

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 — the graded call is above.

    The Broncos come in with 3 more days off — 7 days' rest for the Cardinals against 10 days' rest for the Broncos. We measured what that is worth across 3,120 games since 2013: about a tenth of a point per day, so roughly 0.3 points here. The market already charges for rest — closing lines move about 0.14 points per day of it — and rested teams have not beaten the close for it. The rest gap is real but small. What moves this game is the 6.2-point ratings gap, which has the Broncos by 2.5, 57% to win.

    The Broncos come in off the Seahawks, the Cardinals off the Rams. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Broncos offense grades +0.4 (17th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -3.8 (30th) — 4.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.6, 22nd) meets the Broncos defense (+1.2, 5th), a 1.7-point gap.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Cardinals at 6.0 wins (favored in 2 of 17) and the Broncos at 10.9 (favored in 13) — 4.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 12th-hardest game on the Cardinals' schedule and the 13th-hardest on the Broncos'.

    One team has owned this series: the Broncos are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Broncos won 24-15 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Cardinals are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Broncos at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Broncos vs Cardinals on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI
    Market-implied (Cardinals)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Cardinals)
    35%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 35% for the Cardinals. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Broncos vs Cardinals trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueCardinalsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig33% 33cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Broncos vs Cardinals

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    Broncos vs Cardinals — frequently asked

    Who won Broncos vs Cardinals in Week 7?

    Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 — final, played Sunday, October 25, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Broncos by 4.5 (65% to win), and the Broncos won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Broncos vs Cardinals before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Broncos by 4.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Cardinals. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Does the rest advantage change the model line?

    Barely. The Broncos have 3 more days off, and across 3,120 games since 2013 a rest day has been worth about a tenth of a point, so roughly 0.3 points here — not the point or two it is often credited with. Closing lines already charge about 0.14 points per rest day, and teams with the edge have not beaten the close for it (48.5% against the spread in the 10-days-vs-7 spot, n=301). The 2.5-point line and 65% win probability are driven by the ratings gap.

    How do you take a position on Broncos vs Cardinals?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cardinals at 33c or below, or the Broncos at 63c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Cardinals host the Broncos?

    Denver Broncos visit the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ.

    What does the model project for the Cardinals and Broncos this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Cardinals at 6.0 wins (favored in 2) and the Broncos at 10.9 (favored in 13). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Cardinals' schedule and 13th-hardest on the Broncos', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Broncos vs Cardinals?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Broncos vs Cardinals on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 7 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Broncos?

    57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Broncos at 57% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Cardinals moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 35% against a market price implying 33%, an edge of +1.5 points. Model 35% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 33% on ARI — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Broncos: Week 8 vs ChiefsModel line →Cardinals: Week 8 at CowboysModel line →

    More Week 7 matchups

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