Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Broncos by 2.5 in Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals, NFL Week 7 2026 — 57% to win, and a 3-day rest edge for the Broncos, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Cardinals at 38c or below (or Broncos at 52c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DEN
+1.2
ARI
-3.7
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Broncos
57%
model win prob
Cardinals
43%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
50%
Madden 27
50%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Cardinals at 38c or below, or the Broncos at 52c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Broncos at Cardinals
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals −4.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 more rungsCardinals −6.5 → Cardinals −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Rest first, ratings second: Broncos at Cardinals
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Broncos come in with 3 more days off than the other side — 7 days' rest for the Cardinals against 10 days' rest for the Broncos. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Broncos by 2.5 (57%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 3-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Broncos come in off the Seahawks, the Cardinals off the Rams. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Broncos offense grades +0.6 (16th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -2.9 (30th) — 3.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.7, 22nd) meets the Broncos defense (+0.4, 8th), a 1.1-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Cardinals at 6.5 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Broncos at 9.1 (favored in 9) — 2.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Cardinals' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Broncos'.
One team has owned this series: the Broncos are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Broncos won 24-15 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Cardinals are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Broncos at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 43% / 57% — the tradable window is narrow: Cardinals at 38c or below, Broncos at 52c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Broncos vs Cardinals on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI
- Market-implied (Cardinals)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Cardinals)
- 43%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Cardinals at 38c or below, or the Broncos at 52c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Broncos vs Cardinals trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Cardinals | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Broncos vs Cardinals — frequently asked
Who is favored in Broncos vs Cardinals in Week 7?
Our power-rating model picks the Broncos by 2.5 points, a 57% win probability over the Cardinals, for a projected score of Broncos 24, Cardinals 22 on a ratings-implied 46.4-point total. The Cardinals rate 30th of 32 (-3.7) and the Broncos 12th (+1.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Broncos have 3 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 2.5-point line or the 57% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Broncos vs Cardinals?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cardinals at 38c or below, or the Broncos at 52c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Cardinals host the Broncos?
Denver Broncos visit the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ.
What does the model project for the Cardinals and Broncos this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cardinals at 6.5 wins (favored in 3) and the Broncos at 9.1 (favored in 9). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Cardinals' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Broncos', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Broncos vs Cardinals?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Cardinals at 38c or below or the Broncos at 52c or below, off a 2.5-point line.
Can you trade Broncos vs Cardinals on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 7 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Broncos?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Broncos at 57% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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