Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Broncos by 2.5 in Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals, NFL Week 7 2026 — 57% to win, and a 3-day rest edge for the Broncos, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Cardinals at 38c or below (or Broncos at 52c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DEN
+1.2
ARI
-3.6
Broncos
57%
model win prob
Cardinals
43%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARIhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Cardinals at 38c or below, or the Broncos at 52c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Rest first, ratings second: Broncos at Cardinals
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Broncos come in with 3 more days off than the other side — 7 days' rest for the Cardinals against 10 days' rest for the Broncos. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Broncos by 2.5 (57%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 3-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Broncos come in off the Seahawks, the Cardinals off the Rams. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Broncos offense grades +0.6 (16th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -2.9 (29th) — 3.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.7, 23rd) meets the Broncos defense (+0.4, 8th), a 1.1-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Cardinals at 6.4 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Broncos at 9.0 (favored in 9) — 2.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Cardinals' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Broncos'.
One team has owned this series: the Broncos are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Broncos won 24-15 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Cardinals are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Broncos at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 43% / 57% — the tradable window is narrow: Cardinals at 38c or below, Broncos at 52c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Broncos vs Cardinals — frequently asked
Who is favored in Broncos vs Cardinals in Week 7?
Our power-rating model favors the Broncos by 2.5 points, a 57% win probability over the Cardinals. The Cardinals rate 30th of 32 (-3.6) and the Broncos 13th (+1.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Broncos have 3 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 2.5-point line or the 57% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Broncos vs Cardinals?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT25DENARI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cardinals at 38c or below, or the Broncos at 52c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Cardinals host the Broncos?
Denver Broncos visit the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ.
What does the model project for the Cardinals and Broncos this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cardinals at 6.4 wins (favored in 3) and the Broncos at 9.0 (favored in 9). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Cardinals' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Broncos', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Broncos?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Broncos at 57% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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