Premier League Season Board — Title, Top 4, Relegation on Two Exchanges
Every season-long contract Kalshi and Polymarket US both list, club by club: champion, top 2, top 4, top 6, top half, relegation and last place, with the Golden Boot and Playmaker lists beside them. The lead number on each market is what a complete set costs against the $1 × winners it must pay — the gap between the two venues is the story, and a leg is only ever signalled when both books are two-sided with at least 25 contracts at the price.
Fixture board: this matchweek’s match-result prices → · All soccer prediction markets → · Why Man City are priced to be relegated → · Man City: will Haaland score? Live odds →
Premier League Champion
pays 1 × $1 · 20 clubs
| Club | Kalshi bid / ask | Polymarket US bid / askPolymarketPartner | Cheaper | Gap | Net cross |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 69¢ / 70¢ | 69¢ / 70¢ | tie | 0¢ | Pro |
 Manchester City | 11¢ / 12¢ | 11¢ / 12¢ | tie | 0¢ | Pro |
 Brighton | 7¢ / 8¢ | 6¢ / 7¢ | Polymarket US | 1¢ | Pro |
 Liverpool | 5¢ / 6¢ | 5¢ / 6¢ | tie | 0¢ | Pro |
 Chelsea | 3¢ / 4¢ | 3¢ / 4¢ | tie | 0¢ | Pro |
 Nottingham Forest | 0¢ / 1¢ | — / 1¢thin | Kalshi | — | — |
 Tottenham | 0¢ / 1¢ | — / 1¢thin | Kalshi | — | — |
 Ipswich Town | 0¢ / 1¢ | — / 1¢thin | Kalshi | — | — |
 Bournemouth | 0¢ / 1¢ | — / 1¢thin | Kalshi | — | — |
 Manchester United | 0¢ / 1¢ | — / 1¢thin | Kalshi | — | — |
 Newcastle | 0¢ / 1¢ | — / 1¢thin | Kalshi | — | — |
 Sunderland | 0¢ / 1¢ | — / 1¢thin | Kalshi | — | — |
 Hull City | 0¢ / 1¢ | — / 1¢thin | Kalshi | — | — |
 Crystal Palace | 0¢ / 1¢ | — / 1¢thin | Kalshi | — | — |
 Leeds United | 0¢ / 1¢ | — / 1¢thin | Kalshi | — | — |
 Everton | 0¢ / 1¢ | — / 1¢thin | Kalshi | — | — |
 Brentford | 0¢ / 1¢ | — / 1¢thin | Kalshi | — | — |
 Aston Villa | 0¢ / 1¢ | — / 1¢thin | Kalshi | — | — |
 Coventry | 0¢ / 1¢ | — / 1¢thin | Kalshi | — | — |
 Fulham | 0¢ / 1¢ | — / 1¢thin | Kalshi | — | — |
Bid / ask are the venues’ live quotes for the YES contract. “Thin” = one side missing, a spread wider than 4¢, or fewer than 25 contracts at the price — shown, never signalled. Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢; Polymarket US publishes a per-market fee coefficient. Settles on the final table, 2027-05-30.
Top 2 Finish
pays 2 × $1 · 20 clubs
| Club | Kalshi bid / ask | Polymarket US bid / askPolymarketPartner | Cheaper | Gap | Net cross |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 89¢ / 94¢thin | 69¢ / 99¢thin | — | 7.5¢ | — |
| Manchester City | 39¢ / 40¢ | 38¢ / 98¢thin | Kalshi | 28.5¢ | — |
| Brighton | 20¢ / 36¢thin | 32¢ / 33¢ | Polymarket US | 4.5¢ | — |
| Liverpool | 26¢ / 33¢thin | 29¢ / 30¢ | Polymarket US | 0¢ | — |
| Chelsea | 22¢ / 26¢ | 2¢ / 98¢thin | Kalshi | 26¢ | — |
| Tottenham | 1¢ / 10¢thin | 4¢ / 5¢ | Polymarket US | 1¢ | — |
| Aston Villa | 0¢ / 10¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 3.5¢ | — |
| Brentford | 0¢ / 10¢thin | 8¢ / 9¢ | Polymarket US | 3.5¢ | — |
| Bournemouth | 0¢ / 10¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 3.5¢ | — |
| Manchester United | 0¢ / 9¢thin | 1¢ / 21¢thin | — | 6.5¢ | — |
| Everton | 0¢ / 8¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 2.5¢ | — |
| Nottingham Forest | 0¢ / 8¢thin | 2¢ / 3¢ | Polymarket US | 1.5¢ | — |
| Fulham | 0¢ / 8¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 2.5¢ | — |
| Newcastle | 1¢ / 7¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 2.5¢ | — |
| Sunderland | 0¢ / 7¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 2¢ | — |
| Crystal Palace | 2¢ / 7¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 3¢ | — |
| Ipswich Town | 0¢ / 6¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 1.5¢ | — |
| Leeds United | 0¢ / 6¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 1.5¢ | — |
| Hull City | 0¢ / 5¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 1¢ | — |
| Coventry | 0¢ / 5¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 1¢ | — |
Bid / ask are the venues’ live quotes for the YES contract. “Thin” = one side missing, a spread wider than 4¢, or fewer than 25 contracts at the price — shown, never signalled. Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢; Polymarket US publishes a per-market fee coefficient. Settles on the final table, 2027-05-30.
Top 4 Finish
pays 4 × $1 · 20 clubs
| Club | Kalshi bid / ask | Polymarket US bid / askPolymarketPartner | Cheaper | Gap | Net cross |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 93¢ / 98¢thin | 77¢ / 99¢thin | — | 7.5¢ | — |
| Liverpool | 66¢ / 71¢thin | 45¢ / 86¢thin | — | 3¢ | — |
| Chelsea | 56¢ / 59¢ | 43¢ / 58¢thin | Kalshi | 7¢ | — |
| Brighton | 55¢ / 58¢ | 57¢ / 58¢ | tie | 1¢ | Pro |
| Manchester City | 49¢ / 50¢ | 48¢ / 61¢thin | Kalshi | 5¢ | — |
| Tottenham | 22¢ / 23¢ | 21¢ / 22¢ | Polymarket US | 1¢ | Pro |
| Brentford | 13¢ / 19¢thin | 23¢ / 24¢ | Polymarket US | 7.5¢ | — |
| Bournemouth | 6¢ / 19¢thin | 2¢ / 3¢ | Polymarket US | 10¢ | — |
| Aston Villa | 8¢ / 18¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 11.5¢ | — |
| Manchester United | 8¢ / 12¢ | 3¢ / 30¢thin | Kalshi | 6.5¢ | — |
| Nottingham Forest | 0¢ / 10¢thin | 2¢ / 3¢ | Polymarket US | 2.5¢ | — |
| Everton | 3¢ / 10¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 5¢ | — |
| Leeds United | 3¢ / 8¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 4¢ | — |
| Crystal Palace | 0¢ / 7¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 2¢ | — |
| Newcastle | 2¢ / 14¢thin | 1¢ / 3¢ | Polymarket US | 6¢ | — |
| Ipswich Town | 0¢ / 6¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 1.5¢ | — |
| Sunderland | 1¢ / 6¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 2¢ | — |
| Fulham | 1¢ / 5¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 1.5¢ | Pro |
| Hull City | 1¢ / 5¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 1.5¢ | Pro |
| Coventry | 0¢ / 4¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 0.5¢ | Pro |
Bid / ask are the venues’ live quotes for the YES contract. “Thin” = one side missing, a spread wider than 4¢, or fewer than 25 contracts at the price — shown, never signalled. Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢; Polymarket US publishes a per-market fee coefficient. Settles on the final table, 2027-05-30.
Top 6 Finish
pays 6 × $1 · 20 clubs
| Club | Kalshi bid / ask | Polymarket US bid / askPolymarketPartner | Cheaper | Gap | Net cross |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 93¢ / 98¢thin | 98¢ / 99¢ | Polymarket US | 3¢ | — |
| Liverpool | 84¢ / 85¢ | 66¢ / 99¢thin | Kalshi | 2¢ | — |
| Chelsea | 64¢ / 84¢thin | 98¢ / 99¢ | Polymarket US | 24.5¢ | — |
| Brighton | 76¢ / 81¢thin | 70¢ / 71¢ | Polymarket US | 8¢ | — |
| Manchester City | 60¢ / 62¢ | 60¢ / 76¢thin | Kalshi | 7¢ | — |
| Tottenham | 44¢ / 47¢ | 43¢ / 98¢thin | Kalshi | 25¢ | — |
| Brentford | 36¢ / 41¢thin | 35¢ / 36¢ | Polymarket US | 3¢ | — |
| Aston Villa | 30¢ / 37¢thin | 31¢ / 32¢ | Polymarket US | 2¢ | — |
| Manchester United | 23¢ / 29¢thin | 31¢ / 32¢ | Polymarket US | 5.5¢ | — |
| Bournemouth | 23¢ / 25¢ | 23¢ / 24¢ | Polymarket US | 0.5¢ | Pro |
| Leeds United | 12¢ / 23¢thin | 5¢ / 6¢ | Polymarket US | 12¢ | — |
| Everton | 11¢ / 22¢thin | 28¢ / 29¢ | Polymarket US | 12¢ | — |
| Nottingham Forest | 2¢ / 18¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 8.5¢ | — |
| Newcastle | 9¢ / 18¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 12¢ | — |
| Fulham | 0¢ / 14¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 5.5¢ | — |
| Crystal Palace | 1¢ / 13¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 5.5¢ | — |
| Ipswich Town | 0¢ / 10¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 3.5¢ | — |
| Coventry | 0¢ / 10¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 3.5¢ | — |
| Sunderland | 0¢ / 10¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 3.5¢ | — |
| Hull City | 1¢ / 5¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 1.5¢ | Pro |
Bid / ask are the venues’ live quotes for the YES contract. “Thin” = one side missing, a spread wider than 4¢, or fewer than 25 contracts at the price — shown, never signalled. Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢; Polymarket US publishes a per-market fee coefficient. Settles on the final table, 2027-05-30.
Top Half Finish
pays 10 × $1 · 20 clubs
| Club | Kalshi bid / ask | Polymarket US bid / askPolymarketPartner | Cheaper | Gap | Net cross |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 92¢ / 98¢thin | 98¢ / 99¢ | Polymarket US | 3.5¢ | — |
| Brighton | 73¢ / 95¢thin | 89¢ / 99¢thin | — | 10¢ | — |
| Chelsea | 86¢ / 95¢thin | 93¢ / 98¢thin | — | 5¢ | — |
| Liverpool | 92¢ / 93¢ | 80¢ / 97¢thin | Kalshi | 4¢ | — |
| Tottenham | 62¢ / 81¢thin | 61¢ / 62¢ | Polymarket US | 10¢ | — |
| Aston Villa | 65¢ / 78¢thin | 72¢ / 73¢ | Polymarket US | 1¢ | — |
| Brentford | 2¢ / 74¢thin | 72¢ / 73¢ | Polymarket US | 34.5¢ | — |
| Bournemouth | 60¢ / 68¢thin | 69¢ / 70¢ | Polymarket US | 5.5¢ | — |
| Manchester City | 63¢ / 65¢ | 61¢ / 62¢ | Polymarket US | 2.5¢ | Pro |
| Leeds United | 1¢ / 58¢thin | 50¢ / 51¢ | Polymarket US | 21¢ | — |
| Everton | 42¢ / 55¢thin | 44¢ / 45¢ | Polymarket US | 4¢ | — |
| Manchester United | 38¢ / 49¢thin | 46¢ / 47¢ | Polymarket US | 3¢ | — |
| Newcastle | 40¢ / 48¢thin | 1¢ / 55¢thin | — | 16¢ | — |
| Nottingham Forest | 22¢ / 46¢thin | 16¢ / 17¢ | Polymarket US | 17.5¢ | — |
| Fulham | 16¢ / 33¢thin | 3¢ / 20¢thin | — | 13¢ | — |
| Ipswich Town | 4¢ / 19¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 10¢ | — |
| Crystal Palace | 4¢ / 19¢thin | 19¢ / 20¢ | Polymarket US | 8¢ | — |
| Sunderland | 5¢ / 15¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 8.5¢ | — |
| Coventry | 0¢ / 15¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 6¢ | — |
| Hull City | 5¢ / 10¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 6¢ | — |
Bid / ask are the venues’ live quotes for the YES contract. “Thin” = one side missing, a spread wider than 4¢, or fewer than 25 contracts at the price — shown, never signalled. Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢; Polymarket US publishes a per-market fee coefficient. Settles on the final table, 2027-05-30.
Relegation
pays 3 × $1 · 20 clubs
| Club | Kalshi bid / ask | Polymarket US bid / askPolymarketPartner | Cheaper | Gap | Net cross |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 56¢ / 57¢ | 56¢ / 62¢thin | Kalshi | 2.5¢ | — |
| Coventry | 50¢ / 54¢ | 49¢ / 61¢thin | Kalshi | 3¢ | — |
| Crystal Palace | 32¢ / 40¢thin | 46¢ / 47¢ | Polymarket US | 10.5¢ | — |
| Sunderland | 33¢ / 38¢thin | 40¢ / 41¢ | Polymarket US | 5¢ | — |
| Ipswich Town | 30¢ / 36¢thin | 33¢ / 34¢ | Polymarket US | 0.5¢ | — |
| Manchester City | 33¢ / 36¢ | 32¢ / 33¢ | Polymarket US | 2¢ | Pro |
| Nottingham Forest | 19¢ / 25¢thin | 18¢ / 19¢ | Polymarket US | 3.5¢ | — |
| Fulham | 13¢ / 18¢thin | 15¢ / 16¢ | Polymarket US | 0¢ | — |
| Newcastle | 6¢ / 15¢thin | 5¢ / 23¢thin | — | 3.5¢ | — |
| Brentford | 0¢ / 12¢thin | 3¢ / 4¢ | Polymarket US | 2.5¢ | — |
| Leeds United | 7¢ / 11¢ | 6¢ / 7¢ | Polymarket US | 2.5¢ | Pro |
| Manchester United | 7¢ / 12¢thin | 5¢ / 32¢thin | — | 9¢ | — |
| Bournemouth | 0¢ / 10¢thin | 4¢ / 5¢ | Polymarket US | 0.5¢ | — |
| Everton | 3¢ / 10¢thin | 2¢ / 3¢ | Polymarket US | 4¢ | — |
| Chelsea | 0¢ / 7¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 2¢ | — |
| Liverpool | 0¢ / 7¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 2¢ | — |
| Aston Villa | 0¢ / 7¢thin | 2¢ / 3¢ | Polymarket US | 1¢ | — |
| Tottenham | 3¢ / 5¢ | 4¢ / 5¢ | tie | 0.5¢ | Pro |
| Brighton | 0¢ / 4¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 0.5¢ | Pro |
| Arsenal | 1¢ / 3¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 0.5¢ | Pro |
Bid / ask are the venues’ live quotes for the YES contract. “Thin” = one side missing, a spread wider than 4¢, or fewer than 25 contracts at the price — shown, never signalled. Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢; Polymarket US publishes a per-market fee coefficient. Settles on the final table, 2027-05-30.
Last Place
pays 1 × $1 · 20 clubs
| Club | Kalshi bid / ask | Polymarket US bid / askPolymarketPartner | Cheaper | Gap | Net cross |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 0¢ / 87¢thin | 3¢ / 16¢thin | — | 34¢ | — |
| Bournemouth | 0¢ / 83¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 40¢ | — |
| Liverpool | 0¢ / 82¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 39.5¢ | — |
| Aston Villa | 0¢ / 82¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 39.5¢ | — |
| Nottingham Forest | 0¢ / 82¢thin | 1¢ / 8¢thin | — | 36.5¢ | — |
| Everton | 0¢ / 82¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 39.5¢ | — |
| Tottenham | 0¢ / 79¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 38¢ | — |
| Ipswich Town | 0¢ / 77¢thin | 12¢ / 13¢ | Polymarket US | 26¢ | — |
| Fulham | 0¢ / 57¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 27¢ | — |
| Crystal Palace | 1¢ / 50¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 24¢ | — |
| Manchester City | 42¢ / 47¢thin | 38¢ / 39¢ | Polymarket US | 6¢ | — |
| Hull City | 13¢ / 20¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 15¢ | — |
| Coventry | 12¢ / 20¢thin | 30¢ / 31¢ | Polymarket US | 14.5¢ | — |
| Brentford | 0¢ / 9¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 3¢ | — |
| Brighton | 0¢ / 9¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 3¢ | — |
| Chelsea | 0¢ / 8¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 2.5¢ | — |
| Leeds United | 0¢ / 5¢thin | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 1¢ | — |
| Newcastle | 0¢ / 3¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | Polymarket US | 0¢ | Pro |
| Manchester United | 1¢ / 2¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | tie | 0¢ | Pro |
| Arsenal | 0¢ / 1¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | Kalshi | 1¢ | Pro |
Bid / ask are the venues’ live quotes for the YES contract. “Thin” = one side missing, a spread wider than 4¢, or fewer than 25 contracts at the price — shown, never signalled. Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢; Polymarket US publishes a per-market fee coefficient. Settles on the final table, 2027-05-30.
Player awards are listed on Kalshi only below — Polymarket US lists them too, but the two venues name players by different ids and we do not pair them by name.
Golden Boot (top scorer)
pays 1 × $1 · 15 players (top by price)
| Player | Kalshi bid / ask |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 70¢ / 72¢ |
| Alexander Isak | 12¢ / 14¢ |
| Morgan Rogers | 1¢ / 7¢thin |
| Joao Pedro | 2¢ / 6¢ |
| Cole Palmer | 2¢ / 5¢ |
| Kai Havertz | 1¢ / 4¢ |
| Igor Thiago | 1¢ / 2¢ |
| Evanilson | 0¢ / 1¢ |
| Ismaila Sarr | 0¢ / 1¢ |
| Yoane Wissa | 0¢ / 1¢ |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | 0¢ / 1¢ |
| Danny Welbeck | 0¢ / 1¢ |
| Matheus Cunha | 0¢ / 1¢ |
| Cody Gakpo | 0¢ / 1¢ |
| Mohammed Kudus | 0¢ / 1¢ |
Bid / ask are the venues’ live quotes for the YES contract. “Thin” = one side missing, a spread wider than 4¢, or fewer than 25 contracts at the price — shown, never signalled. Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢; Polymarket US publishes a per-market fee coefficient. Settles on the season award, 2027-05-30.
Playmaker (most assists)
pays 1 × $1 · 15 players (top by price)
| Player | Kalshi bid / ask |
|---|---|
| Yeremy Pino | 0¢ / 86¢thin |
| Martin Odegaard | 3¢ / 73¢thin |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | 0¢ / 41¢thin |
| Rayan | 0¢ / 41¢thin |
| Jacob Murphy | 0¢ / 31¢thin |
| Joao Pedro | 0¢ / 31¢thin |
| Mikkel Damsgaard | 0¢ / 30¢thin |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0¢ / 30¢thin |
| Pedro Neto | 0¢ / 30¢thin |
| Youri Tielemans | 0¢ / 30¢thin |
| Harry Wilson | 0¢ / 30¢thin |
| Declan Rice | 8¢ / 29¢thin |
| Enzo Le Fee | 0¢ / 29¢thin |
| Cody Gakpo | 0¢ / 25¢thin |
| Bruno Fernandes | 7¢ / 25¢thin |
Bid / ask are the venues’ live quotes for the YES contract. “Thin” = one side missing, a spread wider than 4¢, or fewer than 25 contracts at the price — shown, never signalled. Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢; Polymarket US publishes a per-market fee coefficient. Settles on the season award, 2027-05-30.
Updated hourly · last read Nov 6, 12:07 AM ET · 0 legs clearing a net cross, 0 on watch
Season contracts are not a weekend fixture
Every contract here settles on May 30, 2027. A cross-venue gap that nets positive after both fees pays $1 whatever the table says — but the capital sits until then, “sell on Kalshi” means buying the NO contract, and the quote is not the depth: the wide legs are thin. Kalshi and Polymarket US are separate exchanges with separate order books; every Polymarket price on this page is Polymarket US, never the international book.
Premier League season odds — frequently asked
What Premier League season markets trade on Kalshi and Polymarket US?
Both venues list the 2026-27 champion, top 2, top 4, top 6, top-half finish, relegation and last place as one YES/NO contract per club, plus Golden Boot (top scorer) and Playmaker (most assists) per player. Every contract settles on the final table or the season award on May 30, 2027. Kalshi also lists head-to-head finish pairs, manager exits and domestic-trophy markets that Polymarket US does not; Polymarket US lists the Golden Glove and Player of the Season that Kalshi does not.
Why does the complete set of a market cost more than it pays?
A market that pays exactly one club (champion) must resolve to exactly 100 cents across all twenty YES contracts; top 4 must resolve to 400, relegation to 300. Summing every ask on a venue tells you what that venue charges to own the whole set. Kalshi charges no vig, so a sum above the payout is trader disagreement plus wide one-sided asks on the thin legs, not a house margin. The gap between the two venues’ sums is the board’s headline: measured on 2026-09-21, Polymarket US priced every set closer to its payout than Kalshi did.
Is a cross-venue price gap on a season contract an arbitrage?
Only when the pair nets positive after both venues’ fees and both books are genuinely two-sided, with at least 25 contracts at the price on each side — we re-read both order books before any leg is signalled, because a best bid or ask can be good for a fraction of one contract. Buying YES on the cheaper venue and buying NO on the other (selling on Kalshi means buying the NO contract) pays $1 whatever the table says in May, so the profit is the other venue’s bid minus your ask minus two fees. Three honest caveats: capital is locked until May 30, 2027, so a 9-cent cross is not a 9-cent return on a fast clock; the price that fills 25 contracts is what we score, and the wide legs are thin beyond that; and a leg quoted 0/96 is a dead book, not a 46-point edge — those are shown greyed and never signalled.
Which is the better venue for Premier League futures?
Neither, uniformly — they are separate CFTC-regulated exchanges with separate order books, and the cheaper venue changes leg by leg. This board marks the cheaper venue on every leg after that venue’s own fee (Kalshi’s published per-contract taker fee, Polymarket US’s per-market fee coefficient). Every Polymarket price here is Polymarket US, the venue a US trader actually reaches, never the international book.
Get The 7 Oracles daily predictions newsletter — free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.