Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Texans by 3 in Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans, NFL Week 5 2026 — 60% to win, and a AFC South game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11HOUTEN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Titans at 35c or below (or Texans at 55c or below) is where the model would take a position.
HOU
+2.0
TEN
-3.7
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Texans
60%
model win prob
Titans
40%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
57%
Madden 27
43%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11HOUTEN hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Titans at 35c or below, or the Texans at 55c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Texans at Titans
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans −4.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 more rungsTitans −6.5 → Titans −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
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Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
AFC South math: Texans at Titans
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans is a AFC South game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Texans by 3 (60%) off a -3.7 to +2.0 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC South, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Texans grade +2.6 on that side of the ball (1st of 32) against a Titans offense at -2.8 (29th) — 5.3 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Texans offense (-1.3, 25th) meets the Titans defense (-1.5, 21st), a 0.2-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC South race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Titans at 6.7 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Texans at 9.3 (favored in 12) — 2.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 11th-hardest game on the Titans' schedule and the 12th-hardest on the Texans'.
The series is dead level: 24-24 across 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Texans won 16-13 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Titans are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Texans at 60% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11HOUTEN, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Titans 40%, Texans 60%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Titans contracts a buy at 35c or below and Texans contracts a buy at 55c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC South hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Texans vs Titans on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT11HOUTEN
- Market-implied (Titans)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Titans)
- 40%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11HOUTEN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Titans at 35c or below, or the Texans at 55c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Texans vs Titans trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Titans | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Texans vs Titans — frequently asked
Who is favored in Texans vs Titans in Week 5?
Our power-rating model picks the Texans by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Titans, for a projected score of Texans 21, Titans 18 on a ratings-implied 38.8-point total. The Titans rate 29th of 32 (-3.7) and the Texans 9th (+2.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11HOUTEN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC South result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC South teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Texans by 3 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Texans vs Titans?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11HOUTEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Titans at 35c or below, or the Texans at 55c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Titans host the Texans?
Houston Texans visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN.
What does the model project for the Titans and Texans this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Titans at 6.7 wins (favored in 3) and the Texans at 9.3 (favored in 12). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Titans' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Texans', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Texans vs Titans?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11HOUTEN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Titans at 35c or below or the Texans at 55c or below, off a 3-point line.
Can you trade Texans vs Titans on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 5 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT11HOUTEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 60% on a team like the Texans?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Texans at 60% over the Titans sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Texans–Titans, Week 18 →
More Week 5 matchups
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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