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Home/NFL/Week 5/Texans vs Titans
Gridiron EdgeWeek 5 · 2026AFC South rivalry

Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3

Final. The rematch: Titans vs Texans, Week 18 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 11, 2026): Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 — NFL Week 5, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Texans by 7 (73% to win); the Texans won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Texans at 74c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

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Settled

Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Texans by 7 (73% to win). The Texans won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Texans: -1c — we archived the Texans at 75c on Oct 4; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 74c on Oct 11. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 5 · 2026-10-12

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Titans to winModel 27% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 26% on TEN — kept as the pre-game record.26c27%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Texans 26, Titans 3: two early Tennessee turnovers, four Ka’imi Fairbairn field goals and a 17-play third-quarter drive gave Houston its first win

Houston (1-4) won for the first time this season and held Tennessee to 187 yards, with Will Anderson Jr. taking three of the Texans’ four sacks of Cam Ward. The Titans led 3-0 after their opening drive and never scored again: Tyjae Spears fumbled, Jake Hansen intercepted Ward, and Fairbairn turned four first-half drives into a 12-3 lead. C.J. Stroud then finished a 17-play, 74-yard drive with a two-yard run and threw a nine-yard touchdown to Jaylin Noel early in the fourth. DraftKings opened Houston −3.5 and closed −6.5, and 29 points finished under both the opening 43.5 and the closing 37.5.

Texans 26—Titans 3

Final✓ Call hit

The chip reads a hit. Our stored probability had Houston at 73.2%, the market’s own number anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 7-point line, and Houston won by 23. The model’s own read on this game was past the review threshold, so the page printed no lean before kickoff. A call nobody could see is not a record, and it is not graded here. The quarterback gate read PASS. The ledger holds no position. A Titans game winner went through three revisions and the last was voided on 2026-10-10; it would have lost, and it counts in neither direction. The final pre-kickoff board held no PLAY row on either team. Sixteen visible WATCH rows went 8-8 and are graded apart from the record. Wan’Dale Robinson over 2.5, 3.5 and 4.5 catches won on six, Carnell Tate under 4.5 and 5.5 catches won on one, and Calvin Ridley over 0.5 catches, Dalton Schultz over 24.5 receiving yards and Spears over 14.5 receiving yards won. Spears over 9.5 and 14.5 rushing yards lost on two carries for no gain, Stroud over 9.5 rushing yards lost on five, the overs on Elic Ayomanor’s catches, Gunnar Helm’s receiving yards and Tony Pollard’s catches lost, and both David Montgomery receiving overs lost: he left in the second quarter with a groin injury and caught nothing. Four passing-yards rows on Stroud and Ward are suppressed stats the board never displayed, and they count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Texans −3.5 → Texans −6.5
Total
43.5 → 37.5
To win
HOU −192 / TEN +160 → HOU −298 / TEN +240

The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 6 to 37.5; the game landed on 29.

How it happened

Q1

Tennessee kicked a field goal on its first drive and never scored again

The Titans opened with nine plays and 58 yards and Joey Slye’s 30-yarder. Houston’s second drive got inside the Tennessee 25, where a 24-yard Woody Marks touchdown run came back for holding, and Fairbairn kicked from 45 instead. On Tennessee’s next possession Spears fumbled and Jalen Pitre recovered at the Titans’ 35.

After one
Texans 3, Titans 3
Spears fumble
recovered by Pitre at TEN 35

ESPN — play-by-play

Q2

A fumble, an interception and three more Fairbairn field goals

Houston turned the fumble into a 35-yard Fairbairn field goal. On the next Tennessee drive Hansen intercepted a pass meant for Pollard and returned it 19 yards to the Titans’ 41, and that became a 26-yarder. Fairbairn added a 53-yarder with 1:15 left in the half, his fourth field goal in four tries.

Halftime
Texans 12, Titans 3
Fairbairn
4 of 4 FG (45, 35, 26, 53)

ESPN — play-by-play

Q3

Seventeen plays, 8:23, and Stroud from two

Houston’s first drive of the second half went 74 yards in 17 plays. On third-and-11 from his own 36, Stroud found Kayshon Boutte on the sideline for 23 yards, and the Texans worked the ball to the 2 before Stroud kept it himself for a 19-3 lead.

Drive
17 plays · 74 yds · 8:23 · TD
After three
Texans 19, Titans 3

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Noel from nine, and Anderson took three of the four sacks

A 28-yard pass-interference flag started Houston’s next drive, and Stroud’s nine-yard throw to Noel 51 seconds into the fourth quarter made it 26-3. Tennessee’s last two drives, of 11 and 14 plays, both ended on downs, and Anderson sacked Ward three times, twice on the final drive.

Final
Texans 26, Titans 3
Stroud
26 of 34 · 261 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT; 1 rush TD
Ward
23 of 36 · 170 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT · sacked 4 times
Total yards
HOU 329 · TEN 187
Houston red zone
2 TD in 4 trips
Houston penalties
11 for 95 yds

ESPN — box score

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. There is no live nfl_weekly_edges row for it (the Titans game winner was voided on 2026-10-10), and grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W5_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-12/prop-reconciliation-w05-sunday.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • Montgomery has no line in ESPN’s receiving table, so the script graded his two receiving rows at zero. He ran five times for 11 yards before the groin injury; a stat correction would not change either grade unless it credited him with a catch.
  • The severity of Montgomery’s groin (DeMeco Ryans said he may miss some time), Pitre’s shoulder (further tests), and for Tennessee Kevin Winston Jr.’s quadriceps (an MRI, per the AP) and Cor’Dale Flott’s chest was not known when this was published.
  • The DraftKings line moved three points toward Houston and the total fell six, from 43.5 to 37.5. ESPN’s core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, so this recap does not say what moved either number.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close.

Reporting verified 2026-10-12. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Stroud runs for a TD, throws for another as Houston beats Titans for 1st win of season

The league’s lowest-scoring offense at home, and a Houston defense that has stopped being the thing it was

Tennessee scores on 26.3% of its possessions, the lowest rate in the league, and has been outscored 57-20 in first halves. Houston should be the comfortable answer to that and is not: their defense has gone from allowing 1.52 points a drive last season to 2.42 this one. Our model sees the Tennessee defense and likes the Titans by considerably more than the market does, and that disagreement is almost certainly ours rather than theirs.

Texans pass offense · Titans coverage

C.J. Stroud is a different quarterback with pre-snap motion, and Houston now uses it constantly

Edge: Texans

The most actionable split on this page has nothing to do with either defense. With pre-snap motion this season Stroud is 67 of 89 — 75.3% — at 9.6 yards an attempt with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Without it he is 26 of 62, 41.9%, at 4.7 yards an attempt. That is not a tendency, it is two different players, and the gap has held since last season, when he was second in the league at 8.3 yards an attempt on motion plays. Houston has noticed: they motioned on a season-high 75.8% of Week 4 dropbacks. Tennessee allows a 73.2% completion rate, 31st in the league, and 7.9 yards an attempt, 23rd. If the motion rate stays where it was in Week 4, the passing game is the part of this that should work.

Stroud with vs without motion, 2026
75.3% (67/89), 9.6 Y/A, 4 TD, 0 INT — vs 41.9% (26/62), 4.7 Y/A
Houston motion usage
Season-high 75.8% of dropbacks in Week 4
Titans pass defense
73.2% completions allowed (31st) · 7.9 Y/A (23rd)

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Texans–Titans Week 5 worksheet

Titans offense · game script

Tennessee cannot start a game, and nobody has needed to throw against them

Edge: Texans

The Titans have been outscored 57-20 in first halves, the worst margin in the league, have trailed on 83.3% of their offensive snaps and have trailed by double digits on 39.1% of them, a league high. They score on 26.3% of possessions, last, and average 1.45 points a drive, 28th. They also run the slowest offense in football at 53.8 plays a game, 31st — which is what being behind constantly and unable to convert looks like in a pace column. The knock-on is the strangest number in this matchup: opponents have passed against Tennessee on only 47.2% of plays, the lowest rate any defense has faced, and run on 52.8%, the highest. Teams get ahead of the Titans and stop throwing. That is the context for Cam Ward, who has not thrown multiple touchdown passes in any game this season and produced 4.9 of his 15.6 Week 4 fantasy points before the fourth quarter.

Titans first halves
Outscored 57-20 — worst in the league; trailing on 83.3% of snaps, by 10+ on a league-high 39.1%
Titans scoring
League-low 26.3% of possessions ending in a score · 1.45 points per drive (28th) · 53.8 plays per game (31st)
What opponents do to them
League-low 47.2% opponent pass rate · league-high 52.8% opponent rush rate

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Texans–Titans Week 5 worksheet

Texans run offense · Titans run defense

Houston cannot run the ball at all — and the front that would stop them did not practise

Close to even

Houston running backs have been stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage on 63% of their attempts, a league high by a wide margin — the next-worst team is at 54%. Houston has responded by essentially abandoning it: a 35.4% rush rate, 28th, and a 64.6% pass rate, fifth. That ought to hand Tennessee the easiest defensive assignment of their season, except that the unit which would do the stopping was almost entirely absent from Wednesday’s practice. Jeffery Simmons (back) and John Franklin-Myers (back) both did not participate, and so did safety Amani Hooker with a concussion and cornerback Marcus Harris. Simmons and Franklin-Myers are the Tennessee defense; if the two of them are reduced, the one phase Houston is worst at stops being a problem, and a defense that is ninth in points allowed stops being the reason to respect this team.

Houston run game
Backs stopped at or behind the line on a league-high 63% of attempts (next-worst 54%)
Houston play-calling
35.4% rush rate (28th) · 64.6% pass rate (5th) · most 20+ yard pass plays in the league (19)
Titans Wednesday non-participants
Jeffery Simmons (back), John Franklin-Myers (back), Amani Hooker (concussion), Marcus Harris, Tony Pollard (foot)

Source: tennesseetitans.com — Week 5 injury report vs the Texans (2026-10-07)

What this read does not know

  • Our model disagrees with the market on this game by more than on any other game this week, and we are treating that as a fault in our model. The lean is better than six points and the board’s own tier for it is REVIEW — our engine has withheld a call on this game and labelled it "model under review". Our rating has Tennessee last in the league and still has them closer than the market does, because the rating is being held up by a defense that is ninth in points allowed while the offense scores on a league-low share of possessions. The market is pricing the offense. This game must not headline the predictor, the week hub or any social card, and nothing on this page constitutes a position.
  • Our market anchor is a point off the modal book number and that has not been resolved. We carry Houston by seven and a half; the 2026-10-07 Sharp worksheet carries Houston by six and a half with implied totals of 22.5 and 16.0. On a lean already in the REVIEW band, a point of anchor error is a meaningful share of the disagreement. Re-pull before this ships.
  • We do not know whether Nico Collins plays, and it is the hinge of the Houston passing game. Stroud’s career split with and without him is 65.6% / 7.8 Y/A / 5% touchdown rate against 60.3% / 7.0 / 2.8%, and his two best fantasy weeks this season both came with Collins on the field. We could not establish Collins’s Week 5 practice status from any source we trust — the queries surface Texans minicamp coverage and undated aggregator pages. Treat the Houston passing read above as conditional on a fact we have not verified. Tank Dell is on injured reserve with his 21-day window opening and Jayden Higgins is out for the season with a torn ACL, so there is not much behind Collins.
  • Nobody has a game-status designation yet, on either team. Today is Thursday. The Titans report has blank Thursday and Friday columns and no game status for anyone; designations land Friday, and for a Tennessee front with two starters in back trouble that is the report that decides this game.
  • Houston’s defensive collapse is four games old and we cannot tell whether it is real. They allowed 1.52 points a drive in 2025, second in the league, and 2.42 this season, 25th. Four games is not enough to know whether that is personnel, variance or schedule — the opponents so far have included Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott. Our rating has partly absorbed it and the market may have absorbed more of it. Neither of us knows.
  • The opponent-pass-rate number cuts both ways and we should not use it as a compliment to Tennessee. Teams have thrown against the Titans less than against any other defense. That is overwhelmingly a game-script fact — opponents have been ahead — and not evidence that the Tennessee pass defense has earned respect; it allows the 31st-ranked completion rate in the league. Any read that treats the low opponent pass rate as a defensive achievement has the causation backwards.
  • Tony Pollard did not practise and Tennessee’s only route to a slow game is running it. Pollard’s model projection reads UNDER 50 rushing yards and the row is WATCH on `injury_report`, not a play. Without him a team that is 31st in pace and cannot score loses the one mechanism that keeps this close.

Reporting verified 2026-10-08. Further sources: Sharp Football Analysis — Texans–Titans Week 5 worksheet · tennesseetitans.com — Week 5 injury report vs the Texans (2026-10-07) · Athlon Sports — Texans–Titans Wednesday injury report, the first of Week 5 · Sports Illustrated — Week 5 start ’em, sit ’em quarterbacks (2026-10-07) · Yahoo Sports — 2026 NFL Week 5 injury report (2026-10-06) · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Houston Texans · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Tennessee Titans

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 5 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 11
AWAY HOU +0.5
vs HOU -7
HOME TEN -4.9
Fair (books) · TEN 27% home win prob
Kalshi · TEN — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Nashville, TN PASS — no position

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Texans

73%

fair value (books)

Titans

27%

fair value (books)

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57%

Madden 27

43%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Texans at Titans How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Texans at TitansSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

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    Texans at Titans Kalshi spread ladder for Week 5: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Texans–Titans spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Texans vs Titans power ratings (Week 5) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Houston Texans+0.515thAverage
    Tennessee Titans-4.932ndBelow Avg

    Texans and Titans season outlook

    HOUTEN
    Average wins7.34.5
    Make playoffs24%2%
    Win division15%2%
    Win Super Bowl1.8%0.1%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Texans vs Titans — player pages

    All players →

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: AFC South math: Texans at Titans

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 — the graded call is above.

    Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans is a AFC South game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Texans by 1.5 (54%) off a -4.9 to +0.5 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC South, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Texans offense grades +0.4 (16th of 32) against a Titans defense at -2.3 (26th) — 2.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Titans offense (-2.9, 31st) meets the Texans defense (-0.4, 13th), a 2.5-point gap.

    On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC South race.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Titans at 4.5 wins (favored in 1 of 17) and the Texans at 7.3 (favored in 10) — 2.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 11th-hardest game on the Titans' schedule and the 13th-hardest on the Texans'.

    The series is dead level: 24-24 across 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Texans won 16-13 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Titans are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Texans at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11HOUTEN, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Full division picture on the AFC South hub.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Texans vs Titans on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT11HOUTEN
    Market-implied (Titans)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Titans)
    27%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 27% for the Titans. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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    Where Texans vs Titans trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

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    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
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    <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Texans vs Titans, Week 5 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/texans-vs-titans-week-05-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Watch the breakdown: Texans vs Titans

    Texans vs Titans — frequently asked

    Who won Texans vs Titans in Week 5?

    Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 — final, played Sunday, October 11, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Texans by 7 (73% to win), and the Texans won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Texans vs Titans before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Texans by 7 points, a 73% win probability over the Titans. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT11HOUTEN market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    How much does a AFC South result matter here?

    Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC South teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Texans by 1.5 on ratings and home field alone.

    How do you take a position on Texans vs Titans?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11HOUTEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Titans at 25c or below, or the Texans at 71c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Titans host the Texans?

    Houston Texans visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN.

    What does the model project for the Titans and Texans this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Titans at 4.5 wins (favored in 1) and the Texans at 7.3 (favored in 10). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Titans' schedule and 13th-hardest on the Texans', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Texans vs Titans?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11HOUTEN, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Texans vs Titans on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 5 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT11HOUTEN has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    Is Titans to win worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 27% against a market price implying 26%, an edge of +0.8 points. Model 27% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 26% on TEN — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    The rematch

    They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Texans–Titans, Week 18 →

    Next up for each team

    More Week 5 matchups

    Full Week 5 board →Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →

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