Washington Commanders vs New York Giants
Updated · model ratings
Thursday, November 12, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Giants by 2.5 in Washington Commanders vs New York Giants, NFL Week 10 2026 — 58% to win, and the second NFC East meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV12WASNYG yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Giants at 53c or below (or Commanders at 37c or below) is where the model would take a position.
WAS
-1.5
NYG
-1.3
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Commanders
42%
model win prob
Giants
58%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
44%
Madden 27
56%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV12WASNYG hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Giants at 53c or below, or the Commanders at 37c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Commanders at Giants
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Giants −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Giants −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Giants −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Giants −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Giants −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Giants −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Giants −9.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
3 more rungsGiants −10.5 → Giants −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||
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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Commanders and Giants already played in Week 5, and now the Commanders make the return trip in Week 10. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: -1.3 against -1.5, plus home field, equals the Giants by 2.5 (58%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Giants offense grades +0.8 (14th of 32) against a Commanders defense at -2.8 (29th) — 3.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Commanders offense (+1.0, 13th) meets the Giants defense (-2.2, 27th), a 3.2-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 5, so a season sweep is on the table here on the NFC East race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 7.7 projected wins for the Giants against 7.6 for the Commanders, favored in 6 and 3 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 13th-hardest on the Giants' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Commanders'.
Scheduling note: this is a Thursday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Giants at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26NOV12WASNYG is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 58% / 42% — the tradable window is narrow: Giants at 53c or below, Commanders at 37c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Commanders vs Giants on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV12WASNYG
- Market-implied (Giants)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Giants)
- 58%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV12WASNYG yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Giants at 53c or below, or the Commanders at 37c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Commanders vs Giants trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Giants | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Commanders vs Giants — frequently asked
Who is favored in Commanders vs Giants in Week 10?
Our power-rating model picks the Giants by 2.5 points, a 58% win probability over the Commanders, for a projected score of Giants 27, Commanders 24 on a ratings-implied 50.8-point total. The Giants rate 22nd of 32 (-1.3) and the Commanders 23rd (-1.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV12WASNYG yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a NFC East result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 5. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Giants by 2.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Commanders vs Giants?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV12WASNYG on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Giants at 53c or below, or the Commanders at 37c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Giants host the Commanders?
Washington Commanders visit the New York Giants on Thursday, November 12, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 10, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Giants and Commanders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Giants at 7.7 wins (favored in 6) and the Commanders at 7.6 (favored in 3). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Giants' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Commanders', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Commanders vs Giants?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV12WASNYG yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Giants at 53c or below or the Commanders at 37c or below, off a 2.5-point line.
Can you trade Commanders vs Giants on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 10 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV12WASNYG. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 58% on a team like the Giants?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Giants at 58% over the Commanders sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 5. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Commanders–Giants, Week 5 →
More Week 10 matchups
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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