Miami Dolphins: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge
The prediction-market read on the Dolphins: our DAEPA model projects 6.7 wins in 2026 (29th of 32, Average tier), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and AFC East standing below.
2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi
Model projection
6.7
±2.0 wins
Kalshi market
4.5
KXNFLWINS-27MIA
Edge
+1.1
wins
Model agrees with the market
Edge (raw model−market) flagged at ±2.50 wins this week. No single rung sits near 50¢.
See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Power rating breakdown
Overall
-3.0
28th · Average
Offense
-1.3
points/gm
Defense
-2.5
points/gm
Special teams
+0.8
points/gm
Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (66.2% backtested game accuracy across 6,218 games).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Win probability is the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=13.5. The sum of these 17 numbers is the 6.7-win projection above.
AFC East projected standing
Division hub →Dolphins 2026 — frequently asked
What is the Miami Dolphins win total for 2026?
The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 4.5 wins for the Dolphins in 2026. Our DAEPA power-rating model projects 6.7 wins — a 1.1-win agreement with the market.
Where do the Dolphins rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The Dolphins sit at a -3.0-point power rating — 28th of 32 — in the Average tier. That rating (offense -1.3, defense -2.5, special teams +0.8) is the input behind every Dolphins prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade Miami Dolphins games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Dolphins season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the Dolphins in for 2026?
The Dolphins play in the AFC East, alongside Bills, Patriots, Jets. Our model has them projected 3rd in the AFC East on 6.7 expected wins.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.