Macro prediction markets
Live Kalshi contracts on the Fed funds rate, CPI, payrolls, GDP and recession odds. Each price is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance, with no vig to strip out. Below: the open board, the six tools that price it, what actually makes each contract resolve, and our graded record.
Our record on macro contracts
−$1.86
net
−2.5¢
per contract
74
graded
7.0%
win rate
Net is a SUM over a flat one-contract stake; “per contract” is the average. A further 112 positions settled void (contract cancelled, no result) and are excluded rather than counted as outcomes. Full method on the track record.
Open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
Price it yourself
Fed Rate Tracker
Live KXFED ladder → implied probability of each rate band, meeting by meeting
Cross-Market Divergence
Kalshi vs Polymarket vs CME fed funds futures on the same FOMC meeting — and which venue has been right
Inflation Tracker
CPI contracts against the model — where the market is pricing the next print
Recession Tracker
Recession-odds contracts with a Bayesian update on each macro release
Macro Pulse
One composite read across rates, inflation, growth and labour
Shutdown Tracker
Government-shutdown contracts and the deadline calendar behind them
S&P 500 Forecast
Index-level contracts priced against our model
How these contracts settle
The published rule decides the outcome, not the headline. Which print counts, the exact metric, the rounding, and whether the comparison is strict — one page per series.
Reading
Macro edges the morning they open — Fed, CPI, payrolls. Free.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are macro prediction markets?
Event contracts on macroeconomic outcomes — where the Fed funds rate lands after a given FOMC meeting, what the next CPI print comes in at, whether payrolls beat a threshold, whether NBER declares a recession. On Kalshi each one trades between 1c and 99c and settles at $1 or $0, so the price is the market-implied probability directly. No odds conversion, no vig.
How is a Fed rate contract different from Fed funds futures?
Futures price the average effective rate over a month and need a model to back out a probability. A Kalshi KXFED contract asks a yes/no question about the target range after a named meeting, so the cents ARE the probability. It is also open to retail in all 50 states in contract sizes a futures desk would not clear.
What actually decides whether a macro contract resolves YES?
The published rule, not the headline. CPI contracts settle on a specific BLS series rounded to a specific number of decimal places; Fed contracts settle on the upper bound of the target range as published by the Federal Reserve after a named meeting, with a strict greater-than comparison so hitting the threshold exactly resolves NO. We read those rules and publish the criterion and the traps for every series we track.
Do revisions change how a macro contract settles?
Usually not — most contracts settle on the initial print, so a later revision that would have flipped the outcome does not reopen it. That is one of the most expensive traps in macro contracts and it is why the settlement page for each series names which print counts.
Do you publish a record on macro markets?
Yes, and it is on this page. Every position is graded at one contract per signal and both sides stay on the board. Voided contracts are reported separately and excluded from the record — a cancelled contract is not a result.