The prediction-market read on the Texans: our 10,000-season simulation projects 8.0 wins in 2026 (19th of 32, Playoff tier; model 8.0), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and AFC South standing below.
Entering Week 7: experts 15 · market-implied 3 · PMP 13 — a 12-place split between Experts and Market. Experts vs. market on the Texans →
2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi
Houston Texans
AFC South · 13th power rating · Playoff
Kalshi live
8.0projected wins ± 1.6 · 19th of 32
Kalshi market
9.08w
Ladder-implied wins
7 Oracles sim
8.01w
59.6% backtested
Divergence
-1.07w
Market higher
Model agrees with the market
Divergence is projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line, in wins — MODERATE on the one ladder every season-wins surface grades on (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); OVER / UNDER fires at ±2.0. Projected wins are the 10,000-season simulation mean; the model — wins already banked plus the rest of the season — reads 8.0. No single rung sits near 50¢.
See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
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The consensus spread
Three independent estimates of the same season on one line: the expected wins implied by the live Kalshi ladder, our 10,000-season simulation, and EA’s Madden 27 simulation. Where they disagree is the whole signal.
1.07 wins of disagreement
8.01Our sim
8.63Madden 27
9.08Kalshi
7.07.88.59.310.1
Both independent models sit on the same side of the market line — our sim at 8.01 and the Madden simulation at 8.63 against 9.08 implied wins. That is the cleanest version of this signal.
Madden is a bit lower on the Texans than our model, 4 places apart — a real but modest difference of opinion.
Where the season actually lands
A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position — the full distribution against the contract line can. Bars are the Madden 27 simulation over 10,000 seasons; the dashed marker is the live contract.
Kalshi 9.0801234567891011121314151617
25%
our probability of clearing 9.08
Madden sim: 38% -25.0pp vs a coin flip
Our probability from the 10,000-season simulation (mean 8.01 wins; model, banked wins plus the rest of the season, 7.97 ± 1.63). Bars: Madden 27 sim-2026, 10,000 iterations. Two methods, no shared inputs.
The season simulation at every Kalshi win-total rung, then the widest player-prop gap on this club this week. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the simulation alone.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Legend
Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Oracle Ladders venue check
At 3+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 57¢, the books imply 54¢ — 1.5 points below the book read.
Legend
Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Oracle Ladders venue check
At 2+ rec Kalshi's YES costs 39¢, the books imply 37¢ — 1.3 points above the book read.
Legend
Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Market edges
The season contract and the single game most likely to move it, graded on the same thresholds every other Gridiron Edge surface uses.
◆ MODERATE confidence9.08 · Under
Season wins under 9.08
Our 10,000-season simulation projects 8.01 (model 7.97), the Madden 27 simulation 8.63, against 9.08 market-implied wins — a -1.07-win gap. MODERATE on the wins ladder (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); a side is flagged only at the 2.0-win STRONG rung, so the honest read is no position.
Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (59.6% backtested straight-up accuracy across 3,266 games, no market line used).
The season path
Seventeen weeks as a heat ribbon — the shape of the season in one glance, each cell linking to that game’s full read. The sortable table stays below it.
Nine position groups against league average. Each axis is scaled on its own league range — a shared 0-100 scale flattens every roster into the same circle.
24Quarterback76
24O-Line78
10Receiver82
11Tight End84
19Running Back83
3Pass Rush87
15Linebacker78
2Secondary86
27Special Teams75
Dashed violet ring = league average. Number chip = rank of 32. Source: Madden 27 launch team composites (derived unit aggregates, no per-player data).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Played games show the final; the rest show Our %, the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=14.4 — those numbers plus the 2-4 already banked sum to the model's 8.0 wins; the 8.0-win headline above is the 10,000-season simulation, which adds rating uncertainty (and fits its own home-field, 2.0) on top of these same ratings. Madden % is the same question asked of Madden 27 talent composites, a model that shares none of our inputs.
What a trader actually pays, not the mid — the ask to buy a YES, 100 minus the bid to buy a NO. A disagreement is not a guarantee.
Dalton Schultz under 5 receptions
Play
5+ receptions — NO
You pay
45¢
Book
55 / 57
Open interest
7,717
Our number
63.5% (+18.5pp)
The widest position on the 1 PM card and the one the market has moved toward us on — open interest went from roughly 970 to 7,700 in a day while the price barely moved. Worth stating plainly: the three books that price this strike put the over near 57%, so they are against us here. This is a model position, not a consensus one.
Where to rest it: Rest the NO at 45. It has been filling all day at that level and the book is two cents wide; there is no reason to cross for it.
Our projection against the live Kalshi contract. Every prop is an “X or more” contract that pays $1 if the player gets there, so the price of the side we call, in cents,is the market’s implied probability — the edge is the gap between that and ours, in percentage points. Closest strike to our projection first.
Texans player props vs the Kalshi line — the called side, its Kalshi price and our tier on the strike closest to our projection; our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — our Oracle calls are the opinion.
No Kalshi strike in this slice is 5¢+ off the sportsbooks right now — the market agrees with itself.
Texans props: where the market prices are — Kalshi mid vs sportsbook consensus per strike, widest gap first
Our current board, with the 94 games already played locked in and the remaining schedule played out 10,000 times with the league's actual tiebreaker procedure. The projection above is the middle of this; these are the odds around it. The sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games) — a separate fit from the +2.5 the game model uses on matchup pages.
Sim average wins
8.0
10,000 seasons · 25% reach 10+
Make playoffs
33%
24% win 6 or fewer
Win division
20%
1% take the 1 seed
Win Super Bowl
2.4%
16th of 32 · 5% reach it
The Texans draw a 0.481 opponent win rate — the 27th-hardest schedule in the league.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings. Real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule. No injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices.
A second opinion, built from Madden 27 launch ratings alone and played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times. It knows nothing about our own model — which is what makes the disagreement worth reading.
Madden rank
17
80.9 composite · QB 76
Simulated wins
8.6
38% reach 10+
Playoffs
48%
32% win division
Super Bowl
2.8%
SoS 0.492 (23rd hardest)
Madden is a bit lower on the Texans than our model, 4 places apart — a real but modest difference of opinion.
Madden-only inputs — no injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices. Average error on a season win total is 2.27 wins, so the distribution is the product, not the mean. The 10,000-season simulation →
Texans 2026 — frequently asked
What is the Houston Texans win total for 2026?
The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 9.1 wins for the Texans in 2026. Our 10,000-season simulation on our DAEPA power ratings projects 8.0 wins — a 1.1-win agreement with the market (MODERATE on our wins ladder).
Where do the Texans rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The Texans sit at a +1.1-point power rating — 13th of 32 — in the Playoff tier. That rating (offense +0.4, defense +0.2, special teams +0.5) is the input behind every Texans prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade Houston Texans games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Texans season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the Texans in for 2026?
The Texans play in the AFC South, alongside Colts, Jaguars, Titans. Our model has them projected 2nd in the AFC South on 8.0 expected wins.
