Tennessee Titans vs Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, November 22, 2026 · AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Cowboys by 7.5 in Tennessee Titans vs Dallas Cowboys, NFL Week 11 2026 — 71% to win, and the 3rd-widest model gap in Week 11. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22TENDAL yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Cowboys at 66c or below (or Titans at 24c or below) is where the model would take a position.
TEN
-3.4
DAL
+1.5
Titans
29%
model win prob
Cowboys
71%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV22TENDALhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Cowboys at 66c or below, or the Titans at 24c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Why the model has the Cowboys by 7.5
The model does not think this one is close. The Cowboys rate 11th of 32 at +1.5, the Titans 29th at -3.4, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Cowboys by 7.5 — 71% to win. That is the 3rd-widest gap among the 13 games on the Week 11 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Titans need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Cowboys offense grades +3.9 (3rd of 32) against a Titans defense at -1.4 (21st) — 5.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Titans offense (-2.5, 28th) meets the Cowboys defense (-3.2, 32nd), a 0.7-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Cowboys at 8.8 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Titans at 6.8 (favored in 3) — 2.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Cowboys' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Titans'.
One team has owned this series: the Cowboys are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Cowboys won 27-13 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Cowboys are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 71% Cowboys number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
There is no market to compare against yet — Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22TENDAL — and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Cowboys YES is only worth buying at 66c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 71%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Titans at 24c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Titans vs Cowboys — frequently asked
Who is favored in Titans vs Cowboys in Week 11?
Our power-rating model favors the Cowboys by 7.5 points, a 71% win probability over the Titans. The Cowboys rate 11th of 32 (+1.5) and the Titans 29th (-3.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22TENDAL yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the Titans to win?
The 7.5-point line comes from a 4.9-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 13.5-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Titans still project at 29% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Titans defense (-1.4, 21st of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Titans vs Cowboys?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV22TENDAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cowboys at 66c or below, or the Titans at 24c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Cowboys host the Titans?
Tennessee Titans visit the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, November 22, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 11, at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX.
What does the model project for the Cowboys and Titans this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cowboys at 8.8 wins (favored in 11) and the Titans at 6.8 (favored in 3). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Titans', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 71% on a team like the Cowboys?
71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Cowboys at 71% over the Titans sit in that band, off a 7.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.