Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, December 27, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

Bengals

43%

model win prob

Colts

57%

model win prob

Model line

Colts −2.5

Kalshi (Colts)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Colts — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Cincinnati Bengals-0.115thAverage

Indianapolis Colts-0.316thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 16, the Cincinnati Bengals travel to face the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Colts 16th of 32 (Average tier, -0.3) and the Bengals 15th (Average tier, -0.1). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Colts by 2.5 — a 57% win probability for the Colts.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 57% (Colts) / 43% (Bengals) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Bengals vs Colts — frequently asked

Who is favored in Bengals vs Colts in Week 16?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Colts by 2.5 points and gives them a 57% win probability over the Bengals. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Bengals vs Colts?

Home win probability 57% (Colts), away 43% (Bengals). That comes from a power-rating differential of -0.2 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Colts rate 16th of 32 (Average tier), the Bengals 15th (Average tier).

Can you trade Bengals vs Colts on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.