Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, December 27, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Colts by 3 in Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts, NFL Week 16 2026 — 59% to win, and Colts 15th of 32, Bengals 21st. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CININD yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Colts at 54c or below (or Bengals at 36c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CIN
-0.6
IND
-0.1
Bengals
41%
model win prob
Colts
59%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CININDhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Colts at 54c or below, or the Bengals at 36c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in Bengals at Colts
The Bengals travel to face the Colts in Week 16. Our power ratings put the Colts 15th of 32 at -0.1 (Average tier) and the Bengals 21st at -0.6 (Average tier) — a 0.5-point gap that home field widens to a 3-point line on the Colts, 59% to win. It rates as the 7th-widest of the 16 games in Week 16.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Colts offense grades +0.9 (14th of 32) against a Bengals defense at -2.1 (25th) — 3.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bengals offense (+0.7, 15th) meets the Colts defense (-1.7, 23rd), a 2.4-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.6 projected wins for the Colts against 8.6 for the Bengals, favored in 10 and 7 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 14th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Bengals'.
Recent history, for context only: 12 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-5 in the Colts' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2023: Bengals won 34-14 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Colts are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Colts at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CININD, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Colts 59%, Bengals 41%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Colts contracts a buy at 54c or below and Bengals contracts a buy at 36c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bengals vs Colts — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bengals vs Colts in Week 16?
Our power-rating model favors the Colts by 3 points, a 59% win probability over the Bengals. The Colts rate 15th of 32 (-0.1) and the Bengals 21st (-0.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CININD yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Bengals vs Colts?
Colts offense (+0.9, 14th of 32) against Bengals defense (-2.1, 25th) — 3.1 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Bengals vs Colts?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CININD on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Colts at 54c or below, or the Bengals at 36c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Colts host the Bengals?
Cincinnati Bengals visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, December 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 16, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.
What does the model project for the Colts and Bengals this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Colts at 8.6 wins (favored in 10) and the Bengals at 8.6 (favored in 7). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Bengals', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 59% on a team like the Colts?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Colts at 59% over the Bengals sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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