Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, December 27, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Colts by 3 in Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts, NFL Week 16 2026 — 60% to win, and Colts 15th of 32, Bengals 21st. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CININD yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Colts at 55c or below (or Bengals at 35c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CIN
-0.6
IND
+0.0
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Bengals
40%
model win prob
Colts
60%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
41%
Madden 27
59%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CININD hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Colts at 55c or below, or the Bengals at 35c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Bengals at Colts
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Colts −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Colts −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Colts −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Colts −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Colts −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Colts −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Colts −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Colts −10.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||
2 more rungsColts −13.5 → Colts −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Bengals at Colts
The Bengals travel to face the Colts in Week 16. Our power ratings put the Colts 15th of 32 at +0.0 (Average tier) and the Bengals 21st at -0.6 (Average tier) — a 0.6-point gap that home field widens to a 3-point line on the Colts, 60% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 16.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Colts offense grades +1.1 (11th of 32) against a Bengals defense at -2.1 (25th) — 3.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bengals offense (+0.7, 15th) meets the Colts defense (-1.7, 23rd), a 2.4-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.7 projected wins for the Colts against 8.6 for the Bengals, favored in 10 and 8 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 14th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Bengals'.
Recent history, for context only: 12 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-5 in the Colts' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2023: Bengals won 34-14 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Colts are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 60% on the Colts here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CININD, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Colts 60%, Bengals 40%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Colts contracts a buy at 55c or below and Bengals contracts a buy at 35c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bengals vs Colts on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CININD
- Market-implied (Colts)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Colts)
- 60%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CININD yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Colts at 55c or below, or the Bengals at 35c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Bengals vs Colts trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Colts | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Bengals vs Colts — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bengals vs Colts in Week 16?
Our power-rating model picks the Colts by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Bengals, for a projected score of Colts 26, Bengals 23 on a ratings-implied 49.6-point total. The Colts rate 15th of 32 (+0.0) and the Bengals 21st (-0.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CININD yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Bengals vs Colts?
Colts offense (+1.1, 11th of 32) against Bengals defense (-2.1, 25th) — 3.2 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Bengals vs Colts?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CININD on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Colts at 55c or below, or the Bengals at 35c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Colts host the Bengals?
Cincinnati Bengals visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, December 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 16, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.
What does the model project for the Colts and Bengals this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Colts at 8.7 wins (favored in 10) and the Bengals at 8.6 (favored in 8). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Bengals', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bengals vs Colts?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CININD yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Colts at 55c or below or the Bengals at 35c or below, off a 3-point line.
Can you trade Bengals vs Colts on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 16 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CININD. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 60% on a team like the Colts?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Colts at 60% over the Bengals sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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