Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Bengals by 0 in Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins, NFL Week 5 2026 — 50% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 2.7 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CINMIA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Dolphins at 45c or below (or Bengals at 45c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CIN
-0.6
MIA
-3.3
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Bengals
50%
model win prob
Dolphins
50%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
60%
Madden 27
40%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CINMIA hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Dolphins at 45c or below, or the Bengals at 45c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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Bengals–Dolphins is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Dolphins rate -3.3 (28th of 32), the Bengals -0.6 (21st) — 2.7 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 50%/50%, and this rates as the 1st-closest game of the 15 in Week 5. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 2 of 17) and the Bengals at 8.6 (favored in 8) — 1.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Dolphins' schedule and the 10th-hardest on the Bengals'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bengals offense grades +0.7 (15th of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -2.7 (28th) — 3.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.4, 26th) meets the Bengals defense (-2.1, 25th), a 0.7-point gap.
Recent history, for context only: 11 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-5 in the Bengals' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Bengals won 45-21 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Dolphins are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 10 Miami home games in October since 2015, the median temperature was 84°F and the median wind 9 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Dolphins at 50% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CINMIA is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 50% / 50% — the tradable window is narrow: Dolphins at 45c or below, Bengals at 45c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bengals vs Dolphins on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CINMIA
- Market-implied (Dolphins)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Dolphins)
- 50%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CINMIA yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Dolphins at 45c or below, or the Bengals at 45c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Bengals vs Dolphins trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Dolphins | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Bengals vs Dolphins — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bengals vs Dolphins in Week 5?
Our power-rating model favors the Dolphins by 0 points, a 50% win probability over the Bengals. The Dolphins rate 28th of 32 (-3.3) and the Bengals 21st (-0.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CINMIA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Dolphins (-3.3, 28th) and Bengals (-0.6, 21st) are only 2.7 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 50%/50%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Bengals vs Dolphins?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CINMIA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Dolphins at 45c or below, or the Bengals at 45c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Dolphins host the Bengals?
Cincinnati Bengals visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL.
What does the model project for the Dolphins and Bengals this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 2) and the Bengals at 8.6 (favored in 8). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Dolphins' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Bengals', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bengals vs Dolphins?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CINMIA yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Dolphins at 45c or below or the Bengals at 45c or below, off a 0-point line.
Can you trade Bengals vs Dolphins on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 5 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CINMIA. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 50% on a team like the Dolphins?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Dolphins at 50% over the Bengals sit in that band, off a 0-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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