Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Dolphins by 0 in Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins, NFL Week 5 2026 — 50% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 2.4 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CINMIA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Dolphins at 45c or below (or Bengals at 45c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CIN
-0.6
MIA
-3.0
Bengals
50%
model win prob
Dolphins
50%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CINMIAhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Dolphins at 45c or below, or the Bengals at 45c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Bengals–Dolphins is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Bengals rate -0.6 (21st of 32) against -3.0 for the Dolphins (28th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 2.4-point gap between them, so the model lands at 50% for the Dolphins anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 1st-closest of the 15 games in Week 5, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Bengals at 8.6 (favored in 7) — 1.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Dolphins' schedule and the 10th-hardest on the Bengals'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bengals offense grades +0.7 (15th of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -2.5 (28th) — 3.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.3, 25th) meets the Bengals defense (-2.1, 25th), a 0.9-point gap.
Recent history, for context only: 11 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-5 in the Bengals' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Bengals won 45-21 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Dolphins are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 10 Miami home games in October since 2015, the median temperature was 84°F and the median wind 9 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Dolphins at 50% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CINMIA is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 50% / 50% — the tradable window is narrow: Dolphins at 45c or below, Bengals at 45c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bengals vs Dolphins — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bengals vs Dolphins in Week 5?
Our power-rating model favors the Dolphins by 0 points, a 50% win probability over the Bengals. The Dolphins rate 28th of 32 (-3.0) and the Bengals 21st (-0.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CINMIA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Dolphins (-3.0, 28th) and Bengals (-0.6, 21st) are only 2.4 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 50%/50%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Bengals vs Dolphins?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CINMIA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Dolphins at 45c or below, or the Bengals at 45c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Dolphins host the Bengals?
Cincinnati Bengals visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL.
What does the model project for the Dolphins and Bengals this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 4) and the Bengals at 8.6 (favored in 7). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Dolphins' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Bengals', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 50% on a team like the Dolphins?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Dolphins at 50% over the Bengals sit in that band, off a 0-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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