Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Bengals
50%
model win prob
Dolphins
50%
model win prob
Model line
Dolphins −0
Kalshi (Dolphins)
—
Edge
pending
Model favors the Dolphins — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff
KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.
Power-rating comparison
The prediction-market read
In Week 5, the Cincinnati Bengals travel to face the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Dolphins 30th of 32 (Below Avg tier, -2.6) and the Bengals 15th (Average tier, -0.1). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Dolphins by 0 — a 50% win probability for the Dolphins.
Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 50% (Dolphins) / 50% (Bengals) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bengals vs Dolphins — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bengals vs Dolphins in Week 5?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Dolphins by 0 points and gives them a 50% win probability over the Bengals. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.
What does the model project for Bengals vs Dolphins?
Home win probability 50% (Dolphins), away 50% (Bengals). That comes from a power-rating differential of -2.5 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Dolphins rate 30th of 32 (Below Avg tier), the Bengals 15th (Average tier).
Can you trade Bengals vs Dolphins on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where do the Dolphins host the Bengals?
Cincinnati Bengals visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, October 11, 2026 in NFL Week 5, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.