Updated · market price
Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Quick Answer
Final (Wednesday, September 9, 2026): New England Patriots 10, Seattle Seahawks 13 — NFL Week 1, 2026. Our pre-game model had the Seahawks by 2.5 (57% to win); the Seahawks won, so that call hit. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
New England Patriots 10, Seattle Seahawks 13Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game model had the Seahawks by 2.5 (57% to win). The Seahawks won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Seahawks: -1c — we archived the Seahawks at 63c on Sep 3; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 62c on Sep 9. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
Deep dive
We simulated this game 100,000 times
The full distribution behind the number above — plus the trench-by-trench breakdown, and the one market where our model and Kalshi actually disagree.
1 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 7.5pp on Seahawks moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
A defensive game that neither offense controlled, decided by a backup quarterback and a fourth quarter in which New England threw the ball to Seattle three times. The scoreline hid how close it was, and the injury news that mattered most arrived one play into the night.
Patriots 10—Seahawks 13
Final✓ Call hitThe moneyline read is graded on this page from the stored pre-game probability, so it says what it says. The part worth owning is the player call. Our board published a STRONG UNDER on Rhamondre Stevenson at 39.5 rushing yards; he ran for 51, so that call missed. It was priced off an injury feed showing five designations league-wide when the practice report carried well over a hundred — New England had ruled TreVeyon Henderson out and our engine still read him as probable, which inflated everything downstream of the New England backfield. Two things are worth saying that flatter us less and more than the short version. It was published on the September 3 board and stayed published for six days. And by the September 9 run the publish gate had caught it: every Stevenson strike came back FLAGGED — stored for grading, never shown — with the reason recorded as an UNDER priced off a room carrying an unmodelled absence, which is precisely the Henderson gap. The guard worked before kickoff; it just could not retract what the earlier board had already published. The overlay that closes the feed gap itself was armed on 2026-09-10, after this game. It was a data miss, not a modelling one, and it is exactly the kind that never announces itself.
Q1
Sam Darnold completed a pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the opening series and then left with a hip injury after a single play. Drew Lock finished the game. The team that lost its quarterback in the first minute is the team that won, which is the sort of thing no pre-game model prices and no honest recap pretends it did.
Q1
The Patriots drove 77 yards and finished it with a goal-line reception by tight end Eli Raridon for a 7-0 lead. Andy Borregales added a 50-yard field goal. That was the entire New England evening — ten points, and none of them after the opening stretch of a game they led.
Q4
Two Jason Myers field goals from 30 and 26 yards had kept Seattle within a score. The go-ahead points came on a 45-yard touchdown from Lock to Smith-Njigba, who was the only receiver on either side to control the game. Eleven targets, 122 yards, and the play that decided it.
Q4
Drake Maye threw all three of his interceptions in the fourth quarter. Nehemiah Pritchett took the first for his initial career pick, Julian Love read a throw meant for DeMario Douglas, and Josh Jobe closed the game with a toe-tap in the end zone. Maye finished 23 of 33 for 178 yards with a touchdown and the three picks, and added 47 yards on seven scrambles — a night where the quarterback was simultaneously the most productive and most expensive player on the field.
CBS Sports — Seattle capitalizes on three fourth-quarter interceptions
Reporting verified 2026-09-10. Further sources: NFL.com — what we learned from Seattle’s 13-10 win · Seahawks.com — Week 1 full highlights · CBS Sports — Seahawks rally over Patriots · Yahoo Sports — instant analysis
NE
+5.5
SEA
+5.5
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 1 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Patriots
43%
model win prob
Seahawks
57%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
47%
Madden 27
53%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Seahawks −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Seahawks −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Seahawks −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Seahawks −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Seahawks −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Seahawks −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Seahawks −9.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
3 more rungsSeahawks −10.5 → Seahawks −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Week 1 is the widest-error week of the season for every model, ours included — nothing about 2026 is on tape yet, and the ratings are priors, not measurements. With that stated plainly: the Seahawks rate +5.5 (2nd), the Patriots +5.5 (1st), and the model opens on the Seahawks by 2.5, 57% to win. Every number on this page will move more between now and kickoff than it will in any week that follows.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.9 projected wins for the Seahawks against 10.9 for the Patriots, favored in 16 and 15 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 5th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Patriots'. Nothing on the Patriots' schedule projects harder than this one.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +4.0 (4th of 32) against a Seahawks defense at +1.9 (2nd) — 2.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Seahawks offense (+2.3, 7th) meets the Patriots defense (+1.3, 5th), a 1.0-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against +0.2 (27th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Scheduling note: this is a Wednesday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
One team has owned this series: the Seahawks are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Seahawks won 23-20 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Seahawks are 4-0. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Seahawks at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP09NESEA contract implies 50% for the Seahawks against our 57% — a 7.5-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Seahawks as the value side.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game model number was 57% for the Seahawks. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Seahawks | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50% 50c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 61% 61c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
New England Patriots 10, Seattle Seahawks 13 — final, played Wednesday, September 9, 2026; our pre-game model had the Seahawks by 2.5 (57% to win), and the Seahawks won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff our power-rating model favored the Seahawks by 2.5 points, a 57% win probability over the Patriots. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP09NESEA market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Less reliable than any other week, and we would rather say so. The +5.5 / +5.5 ratings behind the 2.5-point line are preseason priors built from prior-season performance and roster change — no 2026 snaps are in them. Week 1 is the point of maximum uncertainty for the model and for the market, which is also why prices move most in it.
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP09NESEA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Seahawks YES is quoted around 50c against our 57% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
New England Patriots visit the Seattle Seahawks on Wednesday, September 9, 2026 — a Wednesday game in NFL Week 1, at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Seahawks at 10.9 wins (favored in 16) and the Patriots at 10.9 (favored in 15). This game ranks 5th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Patriots', by model win probability.
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP09NESEA. The Seahawks YES contract sits around 50c, which is an implied 50% — against our model's 57%. That is a 7.5pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
This game has been played, so the Week 1 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP09NESEA has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Seahawks at 57% over the Patriots sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 58% against a market price implying 50%, an edge of +7.5 points. Model 57% vs market 50% on SEA. We rate it lean, sized at 3.7% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
