New York Jets vs Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, December 20, 2026 · State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Cardinals by 3 in New York Jets vs Arizona Cardinals, NFL Week 15 2026 — 59% to win, and a 7-day rest edge for the Cardinals, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20NYJARI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Cardinals at 54c or below (or Jets at 36c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NYJ
-4.0
ARI
-3.6
Jets
41%
model win prob
Cardinals
59%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC20NYJARIhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Cardinals at 54c or below, or the Jets at 36c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Rest first, ratings second: Jets at Cardinals
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Cardinals come in with 7 more days off than the other side — 14 days' rest for the Cardinals against 7 days' rest for the Jets. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Cardinals by 3 (59%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 7-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Cardinals are 3 games into a home stand. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Cardinals offense grades -0.7 (23rd of 32) against a Jets defense at -2.2 (27th) — 1.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Jets offense (-3.1, 30th) meets the Cardinals defense (-2.9, 29th), a 0.2-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +1.3, 1st in the league, against -0.1 (30th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 6.4 projected wins for the Cardinals against 6.5 for the Jets, favored in 3 and 4 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 16th-hardest on the Cardinals' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Jets'.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Cardinals won 31-6 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Cardinals are 3-1. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Cardinals at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20NYJARI, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Cardinals 59%, Jets 41%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Cardinals contracts a buy at 54c or below and Jets contracts a buy at 36c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jets vs Cardinals — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jets vs Cardinals in Week 15?
Our power-rating model favors the Cardinals by 3 points, a 59% win probability over the Jets. The Cardinals rate 30th of 32 (-3.6) and the Jets 31st (-4.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20NYJARI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Cardinals have 7 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 3-point line or the 59% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Jets vs Cardinals?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC20NYJARI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cardinals at 54c or below, or the Jets at 36c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Cardinals host the Jets?
New York Jets visit the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, December 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 15, at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ.
What does the model project for the Cardinals and Jets this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cardinals at 6.4 wins (favored in 3) and the Jets at 6.5 (favored in 4). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Cardinals' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Jets', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 59% on a team like the Cardinals?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Cardinals at 59% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.