San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Seahawks by 7 in San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks, NFL Week 5 2026 — 69% to win, and a NFC West game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11SFSEA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Seahawks at 64c or below (or 49ers at 26c or below) is where the model would take a position.
SF
+0.8
SEA
+5.2
49ers
31%
model win prob
Seahawks
69%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11SFSEAhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Seahawks at 64c or below, or the 49ers at 26c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
NFC West math: 49ers at Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks is a NFC West game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 12. The model has the Seahawks by 7 (69%) off a +5.2 to +0.8 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC West, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +2.3 (7th of 32) against a 49ers defense at -2.9 (31st) — 5.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the 49ers offense (+2.9, 6th) meets the Seahawks defense (+1.8, 4th), a 1.2-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 12, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC West race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Seahawks at 10.8 wins (favored in 16 of 17) and the 49ers at 8.8 (favored in 8) — 2.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 12th-hardest game on the Seahawks' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the 49ers'. Nothing on the 49ers' schedule projects harder than this one.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 29-19 in the Seahawks' favour, plus 3 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Seahawks won 13-3 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Seahawks are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 69% on the Seahawks here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11SFSEA, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Seahawks 69%, 49ers 31%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Seahawks contracts a buy at 64c or below and 49ers contracts a buy at 26c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
49ers vs Seahawks — frequently asked
Who is favored in 49ers vs Seahawks in Week 5?
Our power-rating model favors the Seahawks by 7 points, a 69% win probability over the 49ers. The Seahawks rate 3rd of 32 (+5.2) and the 49ers 14th (+0.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11SFSEA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a NFC West result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 12. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Seahawks by 7 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on 49ers vs Seahawks?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11SFSEA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Seahawks at 64c or below, or the 49ers at 26c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Seahawks host the 49ers?
San Francisco 49ers visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA.
What does the model project for the Seahawks and 49ers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Seahawks at 10.8 wins (favored in 16) and the 49ers at 8.8 (favored in 8). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the 49ers', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 69% on a team like the Seahawks?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Seahawks at 69% over the 49ers sit in that band, off a 7-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 12. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. 49ers–Seahawks, Week 12 →
More Week 5 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.