San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Seahawks by 7 in San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks, NFL Week 5 2026 — 64% to win, and the 15th-widest model gap in Week 5. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11SFSEA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Seahawks at 59c or below (or 49ers at 31c or below) is where the model would take a position.
SF
+1.0
SEA
+5.5
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49ers
36%
model win prob
Seahawks
64%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
53%
Madden 27
47%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11SFSEA hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Seahawks at 59c or below, or the 49ers at 31c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — 49ers at Seahawks
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Why the model has the Seahawks by 7
The model does not think this one is close. The Seahawks rate 2nd of 32 at +5.5, the 49ers 14th at +1.0, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Seahawks by 7 — 64% to win. That is the 15th-widest gap among the 15 games on the Week 5 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the 49ers need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +2.3 (7th of 32) against a 49ers defense at -3.0 (31st) — 5.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the 49ers offense (+3.1, 6th) meets the Seahawks defense (+1.9, 2nd), a 1.2-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Seahawks at 10.9 wins (favored in 16 of 17) and the 49ers at 8.9 (favored in 8) — 1.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 12th-hardest game on the Seahawks' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the 49ers'. Nothing on the 49ers' schedule projects harder than this one.
On the standings side, NFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 12, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC West race.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 29-19 in the Seahawks' favour, plus 3 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Seahawks won 13-3 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Seahawks are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 64% on the Seahawks here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11SFSEA, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Seahawks 64%, 49ers 36%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Seahawks contracts a buy at 59c or below and 49ers contracts a buy at 31c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
49ers vs Seahawks on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT11SFSEA
- Market-implied (Seahawks)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Seahawks)
- 64%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11SFSEA yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Seahawks at 59c or below, or the 49ers at 31c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where 49ers vs Seahawks trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Seahawks | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
49ers vs Seahawks — frequently asked
Who is favored in 49ers vs Seahawks in Week 5?
Our power-rating model picks the Seahawks by 7 points, a 64% win probability over the 49ers, for a projected score of Seahawks 29, 49ers 22 on a ratings-implied 50.6-point total. The Seahawks rate 2nd of 32 (+5.5) and the 49ers 14th (+1.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11SFSEA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the 49ers to win?
The 7-point line comes from a 4.5-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the 49ers still project at 36% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the 49ers defense (-3.0, 31st of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on 49ers vs Seahawks?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11SFSEA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Seahawks at 59c or below, or the 49ers at 31c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Seahawks host the 49ers?
San Francisco 49ers visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA.
What does the model project for the Seahawks and 49ers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Seahawks at 10.9 wins (favored in 16) and the 49ers at 8.9 (favored in 8). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the 49ers', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for 49ers vs Seahawks?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11SFSEA yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Seahawks at 59c or below or the 49ers at 31c or below, off a 7-point line.
Can you trade 49ers vs Seahawks on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 5 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT11SFSEA. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 64% on a team like the Seahawks?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Seahawks at 64% over the 49ers sit in that band, off a 7-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 12. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. 49ers–Seahawks, Week 12 →
More Week 5 matchups
Same model, inside your AI agent
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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