San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA

49ers

38%

model win prob

Seahawks

62%

model win prob

Model line

Seahawks −4.5

Kalshi (Seahawks)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Seahawks — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

San Francisco 49ers+1.09thAverage

Seattle Seahawks+2.73rdPlayoff

The prediction-market read

In Week 5, the San Francisco 49ers travel to face the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Seahawks 3rd of 32 (Playoff tier, +2.7) and the 49ers 9th (Average tier, +1.0). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Seahawks by 4.5 — a 62% win probability for the Seahawks.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 62% (Seahawks) / 38% (49ers) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a NFC West divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the NFC West race. Track the full division on the NFC West hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

49ers vs Seahawks — frequently asked

Who is favored in 49ers vs Seahawks in Week 5?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Seahawks by 4.5 points and gives them a 62% win probability over the 49ers. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for 49ers vs Seahawks?

Home win probability 62% (Seahawks), away 38% (49ers). That comes from a power-rating differential of +1.8 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Seahawks rate 3rd of 32 (Playoff tier), the 49ers 9th (Average tier).

Can you trade 49ers vs Seahawks on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.