New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, November 22, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Chargers by 6 in New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers, NFL Week 11 2026 — 68% to win, and Chargers 17th of 32, Jets 31st. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22NYJLAC yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Chargers at 63c or below (or Jets at 27c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NYJ
-4.0
LAC
-0.4
Jets
32%
model win prob
Chargers
68%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV22NYJLAChasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Chargers at 63c or below, or the Jets at 27c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in Jets at Chargers
The Jets travel to face the Chargers in Week 11. Our power ratings put the Chargers 17th of 32 at -0.4 (Average tier) and the Jets 31st at -4.0 (Below Avg tier) — a 3.6-point gap that home field widens to a 6-point line on the Chargers, 68% to win. It rates as the 5th-widest of the 13 games in Week 11.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Chargers grade -0.1 on that side of the ball (10th of 32) against a Jets offense at -3.1 (30th) — 3.0 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Chargers offense (-0.7, 22nd) meets the Jets defense (-2.2, 27th), a 1.5-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +1.3, 1st in the league, against +0.4 (18th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Chargers at 8.2 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Jets at 6.5 (favored in 4) — 1.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Chargers' schedule and the 6th-hardest on the Jets'.
One team has owned this series: the Chargers are 7-3 in 10 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2023: Chargers won 27-6 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Chargers are 4-0. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 68% on the Chargers here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22NYJLAC, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Chargers 68%, Jets 32%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Chargers contracts a buy at 63c or below and Jets contracts a buy at 27c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jets vs Chargers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jets vs Chargers in Week 11?
Our power-rating model favors the Chargers by 6 points, a 68% win probability over the Jets. The Chargers rate 17th of 32 (-0.4) and the Jets 31st (-4.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22NYJLAC yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Jets vs Chargers?
Jets offense (-3.1, 30th of 32) against Chargers defense (-0.1, 10th) — 3.0 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Jets (+1.3, 1st).
How do you take a position on Jets vs Chargers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV22NYJLAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Chargers at 63c or below, or the Jets at 27c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Chargers host the Jets?
New York Jets visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, November 22, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 11, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.
What does the model project for the Chargers and Jets this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chargers at 8.2 wins (favored in 9) and the Jets at 6.5 (favored in 4). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Chargers' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Jets', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 68% on a team like the Chargers?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Chargers at 68% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.