Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans

Sunday, September 13, 2026 · NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Bills

47%

model win prob

Texans

53%

model win prob

Model line

Texans −1

Kalshi (Texans)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Texans — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Buffalo Bills+2.54thPlayoff

Houston Texans+1.17thPlayoff

The prediction-market read

In Week 1, the Buffalo Bills travel to face the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Texans 7th of 32 (Playoff tier, +1.1) and the Bills 4th (Playoff tier, +2.5). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Texans by 1 — a 53% win probability for the Texans.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 53% (Texans) / 47% (Bills) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Bills vs Texans — frequently asked

Who is favored in Bills vs Texans in Week 1?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Texans by 1 points and gives them a 53% win probability over the Bills. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Bills vs Texans?

Home win probability 53% (Texans), away 47% (Bills). That comes from a power-rating differential of -1.5 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Texans rate 7th of 32 (Playoff tier), the Bills 4th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Bills vs Texans on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.