Gridiron EdgeNFC East

Philadelphia Eagles: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge

Board as of Oct 23, 2026 · prices live

The prediction-market read on the Eagles: our 10,000-season simulation projects 7.5 wins in 2026 (20th of 32, Average tier; model 7.5), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and NFC East standing below.

This week on the boardNFL Week 7 predictions →NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines →Week 6 results →

Week 7 gamesPatriots at Bears Steelers at Saints 49ers at Falcons Bengals at Ravens Buccaneers at Panthers Giants at Texans Colts at Vikings Dolphins at Jets Browns at Titans Broncos at Cardinals Packers at Lions Rams at Raiders Chiefs at Seahawks Cowboys at Eagles

Entering Week 7: experts 23 · market-implied 27 · PMP 17 — a 10-place split between Market and PMP. Experts vs. market on the Eagles →

2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi

Philadelphia Eagles

NFC East · 18th power rating · Average

Kalshi live

7.5 projected wins
± 1.6 · 20th of 32

Kalshi market

6.42w

Ladder-implied wins

7 Oracles sim

7.55w

59.6% backtested

Divergence

+1.13w

Model higher

Model agrees with the market

Divergence is projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line, in wins — MODERATE on the one ladder every season-wins surface grades on (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); OVER / UNDER fires at ±2.0. Projected wins are the 10,000-season simulation mean; the model — wins already banked plus the rest of the season — reads 7.5. No single rung sits near 50¢.

See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.

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A live card locked to the Philadelphia Eagles — projected 2026 wins against the Kalshi KXNFLWINS line for this one club, not "whichever team has the biggest gap today" — for a fan site, a newsletter or a subreddit sidebar. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.

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The consensus spread

Three independent estimates of the same season on one line: the expected wins implied by the live Kalshi ladder, our 10,000-season simulation, and EA’s Madden 27 simulation. Where they disagree is the whole signal.

4.08 wins of disagreement

6.42 Kalshi

7.55 Our sim

10.50 Madden 27

2.55.58.511.414.4

Both independent models sit on the same side of the market line — our sim at 7.55 and the Madden simulation at 10.50 against 6.42 implied wins. That is the cleanest version of this signal.

Madden is far higher on the Eagles than our model is — 5th on talent versus 18th on play-by-play, a 13-place gap. EA sees a roster our model hasn't seen produce yet.

Where the season actually lands

A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position — the full distribution against the contract line can. Bars are the Madden 27 simulation over 10,000 seasons; the dashed marker is the live contract.

Kalshi 6.42 01234567891011121314151617

69%

our probability
of clearing 6.42

Madden sim: 92%
+18.5pp vs a coin flip

Our probability from the 10,000-season simulation (mean 7.55 wins; model, banked wins plus the rest of the season, 7.51 ± 1.64). Bars: Madden 27 sim-2026, 10,000 iterations. Two methods, no shared inputs.

The Ladder — Eagles

All ladders →

The season simulation at every Kalshi win-total rung, then the widest player-prop gap on this club this week. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the simulation alone.

EaglesSeason winsLOCATIONView 7+ wins on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 7+ wins at 41¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

StrikeKalshi YES · 0–100¢Take itBooksGap

17+
wins
thin
—
outside band
16+
wins
thin
—
outside band
15+
wins
thin
—
outside band
14+
wins
thin
—
outside band
13+
wins
thin
—
outside band
12+
wins
thin
—
outside band
11+
wins
thin
—
outside band
10+
wins
YES 12¢ · pays 8.3x NO 89¢
—
outside band
9+
wins
YES 17¢ · pays 5.9x NO 84¢
—
—
8+
wins
YES 29¢ · pays 3.4x NO 73¢
—
—
7+
wins
YES 42¢ · pays 2.4x NO 60¢
—
—
Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 6–7
6+
wins
YES 64¢ · pays 1.6x NO 39¢
—
outside band
5+
wins
YES 88¢ · pays 1.1x NO 18¢
—
outside band
4+
wins
YES 93¢ · pays 1.1x NO 10¢
—
outside band
3+
wins
YES 99¢ · pays 1x NO 5¢
—
outside band
2+
wins
thin
—
outside band
1+
wins
thin
—
outside band

Headline rung · 7+ wins

YES 42¢NO 60¢

pays 2.4x · books — · Oracle 🔒

We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.

Legend

Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.

Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →

Tanner McKeePass AttMARKET READView 34+ pass att on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 34+ pass att at 52¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

StrikeKalshi YES · 0–100¢Take itBooksGap

Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 33–34
34+
pass att
YES 54¢ · pays 1.9x NO 50¢
—
—

Market · 34+ pass att

YES 54¢

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Legend

Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.

Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →

Tanner McKeeInterceptionsMARKET READView 1+ INTs on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 1+ INTs at 60¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

StrikeKalshi YES · 0–100¢Take itBooksGap

Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 0–1
1+
INTs
YES 61¢ · pays 1.6x NO 42¢
—
—

Market · 1+ INTs

YES 61¢

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Legend

Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.

Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Market edges

The season contract and the single game most likely to move it, graded on the same thresholds every other Gridiron Edge surface uses.

◆ MODERATE confidence 6.42 · Over

Season wins over 6.42

Our 10,000-season simulation projects 7.55 (model 7.51), the Madden 27 simulation 10.50, against 6.42 market-implied wins — a +1.13-win gap. MODERATE on the wins ladder (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); a side is flagged only at the 2.0-win STRONG rung, so the honest read is no position.

◆ MODERATE confidence Wk 16 · Home

Week 16 vs Texans

The truest coin flip on the schedule at 52%. Games this close are where a season win total is actually decided — and where a live in-week contract is most likely to be mispriced. Full read →

Informational only. Contracts can settle at $0 — verify the market and trade responsibly.

Power rating breakdown

Diverging from league average rather than four flat numbers, so a positive reads as a positive at a glance. Points per game.

Overall -0.6

Offense -0.8

Defense -0.2

Special teams +0.4

Overall -0.6 ranks 18th of 32 (Average tier). How Eagles rank on the points scale → Re-weight the model yourself →

Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (59.6% backtested straight-up accuracy across 3,266 games, no market line used).

The season path

Seventeen weeks as a heat ribbon — the shape of the season in one glance, each cell linking to that game’s full read. The sortable table stays below it.

100 Commanders 1 100 @Titans 2 0 @Bears 3 0 Rams 4 0 @Jaguars 5 0 Panthers 6 59 Cowboys 7 47 @Commanders 8 59 Giants 9 56 Steelers 11 45 @Cowboys 12 52 @Cardinals 13 58 Colts 14 45 Seahawks 15 52 Texans 16 33 @49ers 17 45 @Giants 18

Loss likelyWin likely— cumulative expected wins

Roster shape vs the league

Nine position groups against league average. Each axis is scaled on its own league range — a shared 0-100 scale flattens every roster into the same circle.

16 Quarterback 82

2 O-Line 85

11 Receiver 82

6 Tight End 89

7 Running Back 92

6 Pass Rush 85

5 Linebacker 80

13 Secondary 82

6 Special Teams 79

Dashed violet ring = league average. Number chip = rank of 32. Source: Madden 27 launch team composites (derived unit aggregates, no per-player data).

2026 schedule & model win probabilities

All 17 regular-season games. Played games show the final; the rest show Our %, the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=14.4 — those numbers plus the 2-4 already banked sum to the model's 7.5 wins; the 7.5-win headline above is the 10,000-season simulation, which adds rating uncertainty (and fits its own home-field, 2.0) on top of these same ratings. Madden % is the same question asked of Madden 27 talent composites, a model that shares none of our inputs.

WeekOpponentH/AOur %Madden %

Wk 1vs Washington CommandersHOMEW 24-22

Wk 2at Tennessee TitansAWAYW 24-20

Wk 3at Chicago BearsAWAYL 7-27

Wk 4vs Los Angeles RamsHOMEL 20-24

Wk 5at Jacksonville JaguarsAWAYL 17-19

Wk 6vs Carolina PanthersHOMEL 14-25

Wk 7vs Dallas CowboysHOME59%59%

Wk 8at Washington CommandersAWAY47%63%

Wk 9vs New York GiantsHOME59%73%

Wk 11vs Pittsburgh SteelersHOME56%66%

Wk 12at Dallas CowboysAWAY45%47%

Wk 13at Arizona CardinalsAWAY52%59%

Wk 14vs Indianapolis ColtsHOME58%63%

Wk 15vs Seattle SeahawksHOME45%62%

Wk 16vs Houston TexansHOME52%66%

Wk 17at San Francisco 49ersAWAY33%42%

Wk 18at New York GiantsAWAY45%62%

Eagles props: where the market prices are

The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — our Oracle calls are the opinion.

No Kalshi strike in this slice is 5¢+ off the sportsbooks right now — the market agrees with itself.

Eagles props: where the market prices are — Kalshi mid vs sportsbook consensus per strike, widest gap first
Player	Prop	Kalshi	Consensus	Gap	Best price
Tanner McKeePHI v DAL	225+ pass yds	39.5¢	39.9%exch	-0.4¢	over · Kalshi 42.7¢under · ProphetX 63.2¢
Tanner McKeePHI v DAL	10+ rush yds	40.5¢	40.4%exch	+0.1¢	over · Novig 42.6¢under · Kalshi 61.7¢
Dallas GoedertPHI v DAL	anytime TD	31.5¢	—	one-sided	over · Fanatics 32.3¢under · Kalshi 70.5¢
Dallas GoedertPHI v DAL	40+ rec yds	50.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	over · ESPN Bet 54.5¢under · ESPN Bet 52.4¢
Dameon PiercePHI v DAL	anytime TD	13.5¢	—	one-sided	over · Kalshi 14.8¢under · Kalshi 87.8¢
Darius CooperPHI v DAL	anytime TD	15.0¢	—	one-sided	over · BetRivers 15.6¢under · Kalshi 86.8¢
DeVonta SmithPHI v DAL	anytime TD	32.0¢	—	one-sided	over · BetRivers 33.9¢under · Kalshi 71.5¢
DeVonta SmithPHI v DAL	70+ rec yds	43.5¢	—	one-sided	over · Kalshi 46.7¢under · BetRivers 53.3¢

See all 18 priced prop strikes on the board →+ 62 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.

Eagles player pages

All players →

One page per player: every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

NFC East ladder

Projected wins across the division, leader in gold — and four internal reads a click away.

Giants 8.8 -1.4

Eagles 7.5 -0.6

Cowboys 7.1 -1.5

Commanders 6.1 -1.9

Model has the Eagles 2nd in the NFC East. Division hub →

Division odds: Eagles 13¢ to win the NFC East on Kalshi.

10,000-season simulation

How it works →

Our current board, with the 94 games already played locked in and the remaining schedule played out 10,000 times with the league's actual tiebreaker procedure. The projection above is the middle of this; these are the odds around it. The sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games) — a separate fit from the +2.5 the game model uses on matchup pages.

Sim average wins

7.5

10,000 seasons · 19% reach 10+

Make playoffs

32%

31% win 6 or fewer

Win division

28%

2% take the 1 seed

Win Super Bowl

1.7%

19th of 32 · 4% reach it

The Eagles draw a 0.488 opponent win rate — the 24th-hardest schedule in the league.

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings. Real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule. No injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices.

Madden 27 outlook

Full board →

A second opinion, built from Madden 27 launch ratings alone and played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times. It knows nothing about our own model — which is what makes the disagreement worth reading.

Madden rank

83.9 composite · QB 82

Simulated wins

10.5

65% reach 10+

Playoffs

69%

47% win division

Super Bowl

6.9%

SoS 0.485 (27th hardest)

Madden is far higher on the Eagles than our model is — 5th on talent versus 18th on play-by-play, a 13-place gap. EA sees a roster our model hasn't seen produce yet.

Madden-only inputs — no injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices. Average error on a season win total is 2.27 wins, so the distribution is the product, not the mean. The 10,000-season simulation →

Eagles 2026 — frequently asked

What is the Philadelphia Eagles win total for 2026?

The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 6.4 wins for the Eagles in 2026. Our 10,000-season simulation on our DAEPA power ratings projects 7.5 wins — a 1.1-win agreement with the market (MODERATE on our wins ladder).

Where do the Eagles rank in our 2026 power ratings?

The Eagles sit at a -0.6-point power rating — 18th of 32 — in the Average tier. That rating (offense -0.8, defense -0.2, special teams +0.4) is the input behind every Eagles prediction-market edge we publish.

Can you trade Philadelphia Eagles games on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Eagles season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.

What division are the Eagles in for 2026?

The Eagles play in the NFC East, alongside Cowboys, Giants, Commanders. Our model has them projected 2nd in the NFC East on 7.5 expected wins.

Trade Eagles markets on Kalshi →Kalshi NFL hub →All 32 win totals →Full 18-week schedule →

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This team in the first-quarter report

Record, point differential, the market price then and now, our simulation and the next three games, on one card. Read the report →

Philadelphia Eagles: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge

2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi

Philadelphia Eagles

Embed this team card on your site

The consensus spread

Where the season actually lands

The Ladder — Eagles

Market edges

Season wins over 6.42

Week 16 vs Texans

Power rating breakdown

The season path

Roster shape vs the league

2026 schedule & model win probabilities

Eagles props: where the market prices are

Eagles player pages

NFC East ladder

10,000-season simulation

Madden 27 outlook

Eagles 2026 — frequently asked

What is the Philadelphia Eagles win total for 2026?

Where do the Eagles rank in our 2026 power ratings?

Can you trade Philadelphia Eagles games on Kalshi?

What division are the Eagles in for 2026?

Every NFL team

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