Philadelphia Eagles vs Tennessee Titans
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi implies 34% for the Titans in Philadelphia Eagles vs Tennessee Titans, NFL Week 2 2026, while our model has the Eagles by 3 (60% to win) — a 6.4pp gap. Value side: the Titans.
Kickoff board
Week 2 · 2026-09-011 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 6.4pp on Titans moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
PHI
+2.4
TEN
-3.7
Eagles
60%
model win prob
Titans
40%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
67%
Madden 27
33%
Madden 27
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Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
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What the model sees in Eagles at Titans
The Eagles travel to face the Titans in Week 2. Our power ratings put the Titans 29th of 32 at -3.7 (Below Avg tier) and the Eagles 8th at +2.4 (Playoff tier) — a 6.1-point gap that home field narrows to a 3-point line on the Eagles, 60% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 2.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Eagles grade +1.7 on that side of the ball (4th of 32) against a Titans offense at -2.8 (29th) — 4.5 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Eagles offense (+0.4, 17th) meets the Titans defense (-1.5, 21st), a 1.9-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Titans at 6.7 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Eagles at 9.6 (favored in 11) — 2.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Titans' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Eagles'.
One team has owned this series: the Titans are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Eagles won 35-10 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Titans are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Tennessee home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 81°F and the median wind 4 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 60% on the Eagles here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PHITEN contract implies 34% for the Titans against our 40% — a 6.4-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Titans as the value side at 34c.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Eagles vs Titans on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PHITEN
- Market-implied (Titans)
- 34c · 34%
- Our model (Titans)
- 40%
- Model vs market
- +6.4pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PHITEN. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 34c on the Titans is an implied 34% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 40%, a 6.4pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Eagles vs Titans trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Titans | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 34% 34c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 34% 34c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 34% 34c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Eagles vs Titans — frequently asked
Who is favored in Eagles vs Titans in Week 2?
Our power-rating model favors the Eagles by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Titans. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PHITEN market implies 34% for the Titans — a 6.4pp gap versus the model.
What is the biggest mismatch in Eagles vs Titans?
Titans offense (-2.8, 29th of 32) against Eagles defense (+1.7, 4th) — 4.5 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Eagles vs Titans?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PHITEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Titans YES is quoted around 34c against our 40% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Titans host the Eagles?
Philadelphia Eagles visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN.
What does the model project for the Titans and Eagles this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Titans at 6.7 wins (favored in 3) and the Eagles at 9.6 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Titans' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Eagles', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Eagles vs Titans?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PHITEN. The Titans YES contract sits around 34c, which is an implied 34% — against our model's 40%. That is a 6.4pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Eagles vs Titans on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PHITEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 60% on a team like the Eagles?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Eagles at 60% over the Titans sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Is Titans moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 40% against a market price implying 34%, an edge of +6.4 points. Model 40% vs market 34% on TEN. We rate it lean, sized at 2.4% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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