Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Philadelphia Eagles 24, Tennessee Titans 20 — the graded call is above.
The Eagles travel to face the Titans in Week 2. Our power ratings put the Titans 32nd of 32 at -4.9 (Below Avg tier) and the Eagles 23rd at -1.6 (Average tier) — a 3.3-point gap that home field narrows to a 3-point line on the Eagles, 58% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 2.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Eagles grade -1.2 on that side of the ball (18th of 32) against a Titans offense at -2.9 (31st) — 1.7 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Eagles offense (-0.8, 24th) meets the Titans defense (-2.3, 26th), a 1.5-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Titans at 4.5 wins (favored in 1 of 17) and the Eagles at 6.6 (favored in 9) — 2.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Titans' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Eagles'.
One team has owned this series: the Titans are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Eagles won 35-10 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Titans are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Tennessee home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 81°F and the median wind 4 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Eagles at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PHITEN, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.