Philadelphia Eagles vs Tennessee Titans
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Quick Answer
As of September 15, 2026, Kalshi implies 25% for the Titans in Philadelphia Eagles vs Tennessee Titans, NFL Week 2 2026, while our market-anchored fair value has the Eagles by 3 (73% to win) — a 2.3pp gap. Value side: the Titans. The model's own line is Eagles by 2.9 against a market line of Eagles by 7.0 — a 4.1-point lean toward the Titans, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board
Week 2 · 2026-09-15No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
PHI
+2.4
TEN
-3.7
Eagles
73%
model win prob
Titans
27%
model win prob
Market-anchored fair value: TEN 28% (+3.2pp) Combo Edge Builder →
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
67%
Madden 27
33%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Eagles at Titans
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans +10.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans +9.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans +7.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans +6.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans +5.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans +4.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans +3.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans +2.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans +1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans −0.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
11 more rungsTitans −1.5 → Titans −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
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Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Eagles at Titans
The Eagles travel to face the Titans in Week 2. Our power ratings put the Titans 29th of 32 at -3.7 (Below Avg tier) and the Eagles 8th at +2.4 (Playoff tier) — a 6.1-point gap that home field narrows to a 3-point line on the Eagles, 73% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 2.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Eagles grade +1.7 on that side of the ball (4th of 32) against a Titans offense at -2.8 (29th) — 4.5 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Eagles offense (+0.4, 17th) meets the Titans defense (-1.5, 21st), a 1.9-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Titans at 6.7 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Eagles at 9.6 (favored in 11) — 2.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Titans' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Eagles'.
One team has owned this series: the Titans are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Eagles won 35-10 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Titans are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Tennessee home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 81°F and the median wind 4 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 73% Eagles number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PHITEN contract implies 25% for the Titans against our 27% — a 2.3-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Titans as the value side at 25c.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Eagles vs Titans on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PHITEN
- Market-implied (Titans)
- 25c · 25%
- Our model (Titans)
- 27%
- Model vs market
- +2.3pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PHITEN. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 25c on the Titans is an implied 25% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 27%, a 2.3pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Eagles vs Titans trades
3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Titans | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 25% 25c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 25% 25c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarketinternational book | 24% 24c | Open Polymarket → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 25% 25c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 25% 25c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Eagles vs Titans — frequently asked
Who is favored in Eagles vs Titans in Week 2?
Our power-rating model picks the Eagles by 3 points, a 73% win probability over the Titans, for a projected score of Eagles 22, Titans 19 on a ratings-implied 41.4-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PHITEN market implies 25% for the Titans — a 2.3pp gap versus the model.
What is the biggest mismatch in Eagles vs Titans?
Titans offense (-2.8, 29th of 32) against Eagles defense (+1.7, 4th) — 4.5 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Eagles vs Titans?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PHITEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Titans YES is quoted around 25c against our 27% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Titans host the Eagles?
Philadelphia Eagles visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN.
What does the model project for the Titans and Eagles this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Titans at 6.7 wins (favored in 3) and the Eagles at 9.6 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Titans' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Eagles', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Eagles vs Titans?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PHITEN. The Titans YES contract sits around 25c, which is an implied 25% — against our model's 27%. That is a 2.3pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Eagles vs Titans on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PHITEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 73% on a team like the Eagles?
71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Eagles at 73% over the Titans sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Titans moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 27% against a market price implying 25%, an edge of +2.3 points. Model 27% vs market 25% on TEN. We pass — no position.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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