Cincinnati Bengals: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge
Board as of · prices live
The prediction-market read on the Bengals: our 10,000-season simulation projects 9.8 wins in 2026 (11th of 32, Playoff tier; model 9.7), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and AFC North standing below.
This week on the boardNFL Week 7 predictions →NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines →Week 6 results →
Week 7 gamesPatriots at BearsSteelers at Saints49ers at FalconsBengals at RavensBuccaneers at PanthersGiants at TexansColts at VikingsDolphins at JetsBrowns at TitansBroncos at CardinalsPackers at LionsRams at RaidersChiefs at SeahawksCowboys at Eagles
Entering Week 7: experts 11 · market-implied 13 · PMP 9. Experts vs. market on the Bengals →
2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi
Cincinnati Bengals
± 1.7 · 11th of 32
Model agrees with the market
Divergence is projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line, in wins — LOW on the one ladder every season-wins surface grades on (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); OVER / UNDER fires at ±2.0. Projected wins are the 10,000-season simulation mean; the model — wins already banked plus the rest of the season — reads 9.7. No single rung sits near 50¢.
See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
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The consensus spread
Three independent estimates of the same season on one line: the expected wins implied by the live Kalshi ladder, our 10,000-season simulation, and EA’s Madden 27 simulation. Where they disagree is the whole signal.
Both independent models sit on the same side of the market line — our sim at 9.82 and the Madden simulation at 8.92 against 10.28 implied wins. That is the cleanest version of this signal.
Madden is a bit lower on the Bengals than our model, 6 places apart — a real but modest difference of opinion.
Where the season actually lands
A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position — the full distribution against the contract line can. Bars are the Madden 27 simulation over 10,000 seasons; the dashed marker is the live contract.
of clearing 10.28
-10.0pp vs a coin flip
Our probability from the 10,000-season simulation (mean 9.82 wins; model, banked wins plus the rest of the season, 9.74 ± 1.69). Bars: Madden 27 sim-2026, 10,000 iterations. Two methods, no shared inputs.
The Ladder — Bengals
All ladders →The season simulation at every Kalshi win-total rung, then the widest player-prop gap on this club this week. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the simulation alone.
Kalshi prices 11+ wins at 46¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 17+winsthin—outside band
- 16+winsthin—outside band
- 15+winsthin—outside band
- 14+wins—outside band
- 13+wins—outside band
- 12+wins—outside band
- 11+wins——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 10–11
- 10+wins——
- 9+wins—outside band
- 8+wins—outside band
- 7+winsthin—outside band
- 6+winsthin—outside band
- 5+winsthin—outside band
- 4+winsthin—outside band
- 3+winsthin—outside band
- 2+winsthin—outside band
- 1+winsthin—outside band
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 2+ rec at 54¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 3+rec——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 1–2
- 2+rec56¢—
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 2+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 47¢, the books imply 44¢ — 2.2 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 3+ rec at 48¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 2–3
- 3+rec50¢—
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 3+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 53¢, the books imply 50¢ — 1.7 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Market edges
The season contract and the single game most likely to move it, graded on the same thresholds every other Gridiron Edge surface uses.
Season wins under 10.28
Our 10,000-season simulation projects 9.82 (model 9.74), the Madden 27 simulation 8.92, against 10.28 market-implied wins — a -0.46-win gap. LOW on the wins ladder (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); a side is flagged only at the 2.0-win STRONG rung, so the honest read is no position.
Week 16 at Colts
The truest coin flip on the schedule at 50%. Games this close are where a season win total is actually decided — and where a live in-week contract is most likely to be mispriced. Full read →
Informational only. Contracts can settle at $0 — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Power rating breakdown
Diverging from league average rather than four flat numbers, so a positive reads as a positive at a glance. Points per game.
Overall +1.3 ranks 10th of 32 (Playoff tier). How Bengals rank on the points scale → Re-weight the model yourself →
Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (59.6% backtested straight-up accuracy across 3,266 games, no market line used).
The season path
Seventeen weeks as a heat ribbon — the shape of the season in one glance, each cell linking to that game’s full read. The sortable table stays below it.
Roster shape vs the league
Nine position groups against league average. Each axis is scaled on its own league range — a shared 0-100 scale flattens every roster into the same circle.
Dashed violet ring = league average. Number chip = rank of 32. Source: Madden 27 launch team composites (derived unit aggregates, no per-player data).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Played games show the final; the rest show Our %, the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=14.4 — those numbers plus the 3-2 already banked sum to the model's 9.7 wins; the 9.8-win headline above is the 10,000-season simulation, which adds rating uncertainty (and fits its own home-field, 2.0) on top of these same ratings. Madden % is the same question asked of Madden 27 talent composites, a model that shares none of our inputs.
Bengals props: where the market prices are
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — our Oracle calls are the opinion.
No Kalshi strike in this slice is 5¢+ off the sportsbooks right now — the market agrees with itself.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje PerineCIN v BAL | 2+ rec | 54.0¢ | 56.2%6bk | -2.2¢ | over · Kalshi 56.7¢under · ESPN Bet 45.5¢ |
| Mike GesickiCIN v BAL | 3+ rec | 48.0¢ | 49.7%6bk | -1.7¢ | over · ProphetX 50.2¢under · DK 49.8¢ |
| Tee HigginsCIN v BAL | 5+ rec | 54.5¢ | 55.8%5bk | -1.3¢ | over · ProphetX 56.9¢under · DK 45.2¢ |
| Dohnte MeyersCIN v BAL | 15+ rec yds | 50.5¢ | 49.5%6bk | +1.0¢ | over · ESPN Bet 51.2¢under · Kalshi 51.8¢ |
| Samaje PerineCIN v BAL | 30+ rush yds | 46.5¢ | 47.4%2bk | -0.9¢ | over · Novig 48.5¢under · Novig 55¢ |
| Chase BrownCIN v BAL | 4+ rec | 48.5¢ | 49.1%6bk | -0.6¢ | over · ESPN Bet 50¢under · Novig 53.1¢ |
| Dohnte MeyersCIN v BAL | 2+ rec | 55.5¢ | 54.9%5bk | +0.6¢ | over · Novig 53.9¢under · FD 47.2¢ |
| Ja'Marr ChaseCIN v BAL | 7+ rec | 59.0¢ | 58.5%3bk | +0.5¢ | over · Kalshi 61.7¢under · Kalshi 43.7¢ |
See all 93 priced prop strikes on the board →+ 97 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
Bengals player pages
All players →Ja'Marr Chase
WR
Chase Brown
RB
Tee Higgins
WR
Joe Burrow
QB
Samaje Perine
Mike Gesicki
Dohnte Meyers
Mitchell Tinsley
Drew Sample
Erick All Jr.
Jack Endries
Andrei Iosivas
Cam Grandy
Charlie Jones
Erick All
Gary Brightwell
Joe Flacco
Jordan Moore
Josh Johnson
Ke'Shawn Williams
Kendall Milton
Kendric Pryor
Mitch Tinsley
Sean Clifford
Tahj Brooks
Tanner Hudson
Xavier Johnson
One page per player: every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
AFC North ladder
Projected wins across the division, leader in gold — and four internal reads a click away.
Ravens
10.0
+1.7
Bengals
9.8
+1.3
Steelers
9.4
-0.1
Browns
9.4
-1.0
Model has the Bengals 2nd in the AFC North. Division hub →
Division odds: Bengals 32¢ to win the AFC North on Kalshi.
10,000-season simulation
How it works →Our current board, with the 94 games already played locked in and the remaining schedule played out 10,000 times with the league's actual tiebreaker procedure. The projection above is the middle of this; these are the odds around it. The sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games) — a separate fit from the +2.5 the game model uses on matchup pages.
Sim average wins
9.8
10,000 seasons · 57% reach 10+
Make playoffs
58%
8% win 6 or fewer
Win division
28%
2% take the 1 seed
Win Super Bowl
3.4%
13th of 32 · 7% reach it
The Bengals draw a 0.481 opponent win rate — the 28th-hardest schedule in the league.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings. Real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule. No injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices.
Madden 27 outlook
Full board →A second opinion, built from Madden 27 launch ratings alone and played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times. It knows nothing about our own model — which is what makes the disagreement worth reading.
Madden rank
16
80.9 composite · QB 97
Simulated wins
8.9
42% reach 10+
Playoffs
48%
21% win division
Super Bowl
2.4%
SoS 0.480 (30th hardest)
Madden is a bit lower on the Bengals than our model, 6 places apart — a real but modest difference of opinion.
Madden-only inputs — no injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices. Average error on a season win total is 2.27 wins, so the distribution is the product, not the mean. The 10,000-season simulation →
Bengals 2026 — frequently asked
What is the Cincinnati Bengals win total for 2026?
The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 10.3 wins for the Bengals in 2026. Our 10,000-season simulation on our DAEPA power ratings projects 9.8 wins — a 0.5-win agreement with the market (LOW on our wins ladder).
Where do the Bengals rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The Bengals sit at a +1.3-point power rating — 10th of 32 — in the Playoff tier. That rating (offense +1.5, defense -0.9, special teams +0.7) is the input behind every Bengals prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade Cincinnati Bengals games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Bengals season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the Bengals in for 2026?
The Bengals play in the AFC North, alongside Ravens, Browns, Steelers. Our model has them projected 2nd in the AFC North on 9.8 expected wins.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More Bengals markets
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- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
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- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
This team in the first-quarter report
Record, point differential, the market price then and now, our simulation and the next three games, on one card. Read the report →