Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans
Sunday, November 15, 2026 · Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Jaguars by 3.5 in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans, NFL Week 10 2026 — 61% to win, and a AFC South game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15JACTEN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Titans at 34c or below (or Jaguars at 56c or below) is where the model would take a position.
JAX
+2.7
TEN
-3.4
Jaguars
61%
model win prob
Titans
39%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15JACTENhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Titans at 34c or below, or the Jaguars at 56c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
AFC South math: Jaguars at Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans is a AFC South game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 12. The model has the Jaguars by 3.5 (61%) off a -3.4 to +2.7 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC South, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.8 (9th of 32) against a Titans defense at -1.4 (21st) — 3.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Titans offense (-2.5, 28th) meets the Jaguars defense (0.0, 9th), a 2.5-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 12, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC South race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Titans at 6.8 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Jaguars at 9.5 (favored in 11) — 2.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 9th-hardest game on the Titans' schedule and the 12th-hardest on the Jaguars'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 27-21 in the Titans' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Jaguars won 41-7 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Titans are 0-4. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 61% on the Jaguars here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15JACTEN, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Titans 39%, Jaguars 61%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Titans contracts a buy at 34c or below and Jaguars contracts a buy at 56c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC South hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jaguars vs Titans — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jaguars vs Titans in Week 10?
Our power-rating model favors the Jaguars by 3.5 points, a 61% win probability over the Titans. The Titans rate 29th of 32 (-3.4) and the Jaguars 6th (+2.7); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15JACTEN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC South result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC South teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 12. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Jaguars by 3.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Jaguars vs Titans?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15JACTEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Titans at 34c or below, or the Jaguars at 56c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Titans host the Jaguars?
Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, November 15, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 10, at Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN.
What does the model project for the Titans and Jaguars this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Titans at 6.8 wins (favored in 3) and the Jaguars at 9.5 (favored in 11). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Titans' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Jaguars', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 61% on a team like the Jaguars?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Jaguars at 61% over the Titans sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 12. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Jaguars–Titans, Week 12 →
More Week 10 matchups
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