Jaguars vs Titans Prediction β Week 10, Sun Nov 15
Updated Β· model ratings
Sunday, November 15, 2026 Β· Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
- Last week: Jaguars play Thu 8:15 PM ET at Ravens β preview
- Week 8, before the bye: Titans play Sun 1:00 PM ET at Bengals β preview
Quick Answer
As of October 30, 2026, PredictionMarketsPicks' model favors the Jaguars by 5 in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans, NFL Week 10 2026 β 64% to win, and a AFC South game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15JACTEN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Titans at 31c or below (or Jaguars at 59c or below) is where the model would take a position.
JAX
+2.8
TEN
-4.9
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Jaguars
64%
our model
Titans
36%
our model
Run this matchup yourself β Full PWR board for all 32 β Player prop gaps for this game β Whose number this is β
49%
Madden 27
51%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15JACTEN hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Titans at 31c or below, or the Jaguars at 59c or below β a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β
The Ladder β Jaguars at Titans How to read the Ladder β
All ladders βOur margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30β70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0β100Β’
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) Β· hollow = outside the 30β70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; βpaysβ is 100Β’ Γ· cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright β a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Jaguars vs Titans power ratings (Week 10) What PWR measures β
Jaguars and Titans season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings β real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works β
Jaguars vs Titans β player pages
All players βParker Washington
WR
Bhayshul Tuten
RB
Carnell Tate
WR
Brian Thomas Jr.
WR
Tony Pollard
RB
Trevor Lawrence
QB
Jakobi Meyers
WR
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB
Cam Ward
QB
Brenton Strange
TE
Tyjae Spears
RB
Travis Hunter
WR
Gunnar Helm
TE
Calvin Ridley
WR
Elic Ayomanor
Daniel Bellinger
Michael Carter
Nicholas Singleton
TEN Titans D/ST
JAC Jaguars D/ST
Josh Cameron
One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
AFC South math: Jaguars at Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans is a AFC South game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 12. The model has the Jaguars by 5 (64%) off a -4.9 to +2.8 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC South, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +2.2 (8th of 32) against a Titans defense at -2.3 (26th) β 4.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Titans offense (-2.9, 31st) meets the Jaguars defense (-0.2, 11th), a 2.7-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jaguars grade +0.8, 2nd in the league, against +0.3 (20th) on the other side β close to a point of hidden margin.
On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next β so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 12, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC South race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Titans at 4.5 wins (favored in 1 of 17) and the Jaguars at 10.5 (favored in 12) β 6.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 9th-hardest game on the Titans' schedule and the 12th-hardest on the Jaguars'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 27-21 in the Titans' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Jaguars won 41-7 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Titans are 0-4. It is not an input to the line β rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 64% on the Jaguars here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15JACTEN, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Titans 36%, Jaguars 64%. Applying our 5 points floor, that makes Titans contracts a buy at 31c or below and Jaguars contracts a buy at 59c or below β anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC South hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks β you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jaguars vs Titans on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV15JACTEN
- Market-implied (Titans)
- not listed yet
- Our ratings line (Titans)
- 36%
- Model vs market
- β
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15JACTEN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Titans at 31c or below, or the Jaguars at 59c or below β a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Jaguars vs Titans line history
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 13, had the Jaguars β2.5 (DraftKings). The median across 2 books now is the Jaguars β3.
| Book | Earliest line we archived | Now | Spread trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Jaguars β2.5 Β· O/U 45.5Sep 13 | Jaguars β2.5 Β· O/U 45.5 | |
| Caesars | Jaguars β3 Β· O/U 45.5Sep 13 | Jaguars β3 Β· O/U 45.5 |
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. βEarliest line we archivedβ is our first capture, which is not necessarily the marketβs open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchangeβs own moneyline contract.
Where Jaguars vs Titans trades Why the venues differ β
Each venueβs own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Titans | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet β opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi β |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig β $50 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer β |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game β US exchange | Sign-up offer β |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood β |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase β |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
A price under a venue name is that venueβs own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Watch the breakdown: Jaguars vs Titans
Jaguars vs Titans β frequently asked
Who will win Titans vs Jaguars?
Our model has the Jaguars at 64% to beat the Titans in Week 10.
Who is favored in Jaguars vs Titans in Week 10?
Our power-rating model picks the Jaguars by 5 points, a 64% win probability over the Titans. The Titans rate 32nd of 32 (-4.9) and the Jaguars 5th (+2.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15JACTEN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC South result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC South teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 12. Our model does not adjust for any of that β it prices the Jaguars by 5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Jaguars vs Titans?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15JACTEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Titans at 31c or below, or the Jaguars at 59c or below. There is no point spread β you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Titans host the Jaguars?
Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, November 15, 2026 β a Sunday game in NFL Week 10, at Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN.
What does the model project for the Titans and Jaguars this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Titans at 4.5 wins (favored in 1) and the Jaguars at 10.5 (favored in 12). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Titans' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Jaguars', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Jaguars vs Titans?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15JACTEN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game β anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Titans at 31c or below or the Jaguars at 59c or below, off a 5-point line.
Can you trade Jaguars vs Titans on Kalshi?
Yes β as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 10 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV15JACTEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 64% on a team like the Jaguars?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 β trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input β the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Jaguars at 64% over the Titans sit in that band, off a 5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if Jaguars vs Titans ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 12. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. JaguarsβTitans, Week 12 β
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