Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, December 6, 2026 · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Patriots by 3.5 in Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots, NFL Week 13 2026 — 62% to win, and a New England December game that has run a median 36°F since 2015. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06BUFNE yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Patriots at 57c or below (or Bills at 33c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BUF
+3.8
NE
+5.5
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Bills
38%
model win prob
Patriots
62%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
45%
Madden 27
55%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC06BUFNE hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Patriots at 57c or below, or the Bills at 33c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Bills at Patriots
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Patriots −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Patriots −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Patriots −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Patriots −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Patriots −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Patriots −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Patriots −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Patriots −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Patriots −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Patriots −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Cold-weather math: Bills at Patriots in December
Start with the conditions, because they are the one thing about this game we can measure historically. Across 14 New England home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 36°F with 6 mph of wind, and 86% of them were at or below 40°F — the coldest in the sample read 13°F. Our model prices none of that: it sees +5.5 for the Patriots, +3.8 for the Bills, and lands on the Patriots by 3.5 (62%). Weather is an argument you add to that number, not one already inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +4.0 (4th of 32) against a Bills defense at -0.7 (16th) — 4.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bills offense (+4.1, 2nd) meets the Patriots defense (+1.3, 5th), a 2.8-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.9 projected wins for the Patriots against 10.1 for the Bills, favored in 15 and 13 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 8th-hardest on the Patriots' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Bills'. Nothing on the Bills' schedule projects harder than this one.
On the standings side, AFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 4, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC East race.
One team has owned this series: the Patriots are 36-12 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Bills won 35-31 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Patriots are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 62% on the Patriots here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06BUFNE, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Patriots 62%, Bills 38%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Patriots contracts a buy at 57c or below and Bills contracts a buy at 33c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bills vs Patriots on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC06BUFNE
- Market-implied (Patriots)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Patriots)
- 62%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06BUFNE yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Patriots at 57c or below, or the Bills at 33c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Bills vs Patriots trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Patriots | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Bills vs Patriots — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bills vs Patriots in Week 13?
Our power-rating model picks the Patriots by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Bills, for a projected score of Patriots 28, Bills 24 on a ratings-implied 51.5-point total. The Patriots rate 1st of 32 (+5.5) and the Bills 4th (+3.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06BUFNE yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the weather usually like for New England games in December?
Across 14 New England home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 36°F with 6 mph wind, 86% of them at or below 40°F, and the coldest at 13°F. That is a historical profile, not a forecast for this date — and our model carries no weather term, so it is not inside the 3.5-point line.
How do you take a position on Bills vs Patriots?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC06BUFNE on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Patriots at 57c or below, or the Bills at 33c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Patriots host the Bills?
Buffalo Bills visit the New England Patriots on Sunday, December 6, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 13, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA.
What does the model project for the Patriots and Bills this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Patriots at 10.9 wins (favored in 15) and the Bills at 10.1 (favored in 13). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Patriots' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Bills', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bills vs Patriots?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06BUFNE yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Patriots at 57c or below or the Bills at 33c or below, off a 3.5-point line.
Can you trade Bills vs Patriots on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 13 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC06BUFNE. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 4. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Bills–Patriots, Week 4 →
More Week 13 matchups
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