Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Sunday, December 6, 2026 · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

Bills

39%

model win prob

Patriots

61%

model win prob

Model line

Patriots −3.5

Kalshi (Patriots)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Patriots — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Buffalo Bills+2.25thPlayoff

New England Patriots+3.32ndPlayoff

The prediction-market read

In Week 13, the Buffalo Bills travel to face the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Patriots 2nd of 32 (Playoff tier, +3.3) and the Bills 5th (Playoff tier, +2.2). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Patriots by 3.5 — a 61% win probability for the Patriots.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 61% (Patriots) / 39% (Bills) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a AFC East divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the AFC East race. Track the full division on the AFC East hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Bills vs Patriots — frequently asked

Who is favored in Bills vs Patriots in Week 13?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Patriots by 3.5 points and gives them a 61% win probability over the Bills. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Bills vs Patriots?

Home win probability 61% (Patriots), away 39% (Bills). That comes from a power-rating differential of +1.1 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Patriots rate 2nd of 32 (Playoff tier), the Bills 5th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Bills vs Patriots on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.